As noted on Thursday, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a clear uptrend and price action remains bullish. The concerns start when we look under the surface and move down in market cap. The S&P 500 hit a new high this week and yet less than 60% of SPX stocks

The Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced in July and hit a make or break resistance zone. Overall, the long-term trend is down for GLD. Price is below the 200-day, the 200-day is falling and StochClose is bearish. Price is also moving from the upper left to the lower right of the chart. Shorter term, GLD bounced off the 67% retracement line and broken resistance in July

Stocks were hit pretty hard the last few weeks with small-caps leading the way. The recent outsized declines created short-term oversold conditions that could lead to a mean-reversion bounce in the coming days. However, there are some medium-term issues that point to a corrective period in the coming weeks. Namely

The big trends remain up, but medium-term breadth and price action suggest that we are currently in a corrective period. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, mid-caps and small-caps got the correction memo, but large-cap techs, SPY and QQQ did not. Healthcare stocks are also holding up well and contributing to strength in SPY.

Today we start with an up and coming industry group ETF (cannabis) and then turn to some commodity-related ETFs. Gold and silver were clobbered in June, but both are firming in potential reversals zones and warrant a watch going forward. The timber and copper ETFs were hit hard, but they are quite oversold within bigger uptrends. And finally, the water ETF broke out and the telecom ETF has a similar pattern at work. Cannabis Tries to Turn the Corner In

Today’s commentary starts with Treasury yields by highlighting the divergence between short-term and long-term yields. We then look at the yield curve and its correlation with the Regional Bank ETF. Even though KRE has underperformed the last three months, it became quite oversold last week and got a bounce. We then turn to the breakout in the

The Dollar, gold, bonds and high-growth stocks were covered on Thursday morning because of big moves and a signal for gold. This was perhaps a knee jerk reaction so I will continue to watch and monitor price action next week, which is when the market could show its true colors. Today’s note will cover the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. I will also look at two short-term breadth indicators that are not keeping pace here in June. SPY Continues

There is nothing like a Fed meeting to shake up the market. Thus, I am going to cover the intermarket ETFs a day early because there are some reversals and patterns we should be aware of. There appears to be a change in thinking at the Fed and the Fed is still the elephant in the room when it comes to

The stock market does not get any more mixed than it did on Thursday. The S&P 500 SPDR closed with a .50% gain, the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR closed with a 1.6% loss and the Nasdaq 100 ETF advanced 1%. This was not a value-growth split, but rather a large-small split. Small-cap growth (IJT) and small-cap value (IJS) were both down over 1%.

Tech stocks were hit with selling pressure on Thursday and then rebounded along with Treasury bonds on Friday. The narrative seems to be that rising bonds and falling yields are bullish for tech stocks. Regardless of the narrative, several tech related ETFs are holding their breakouts within larger

SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record

This commentary will look at this historic advance in the S&P 500, and them some less historic charts for oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. The 14-month gain in the S&P 500 is the largest in over 70 years. Oil is still challenging resistance as a bullish cup-with-handle forms. Gold remains in the midst of a strong advance as silver forms a bullish pennant. Treasury bonds are best avoided because they are tainted and the Dollar is in a

This article is the second of a two part series where we put gold and silver to the test. The first article showed test results for crosses of the 200-day SMA and EMA. This article tests the Trend Composite signals

This commentary will look at oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. I am sure that there are some intermarket narratives at work here, but I will try to stick with the price charts for a pure assessment. Oil is backing off of a massive resistance zone. Gold broke above the 200-day SMA as it extended its run and silver is challenging

Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling

I covered the stock market environment on Tuesday and Thursday because it seemed timely given price action. This commentary will focus on the macro picture with analysis for oil, gold, gold miners, silver and bonds. Gold looks bullish and we have a new trend signal in the Gold Miners ETF. Copper looks even more

Tech and high-growth took another beating on Monday and followed through on last week’s breakdowns. Even though other areas are still holding up, many non-tech stocks and ETFs closed lower after being up during the day. The chart below shows the Home Construction ETF (ITB), Regional Bank ETF (KRE),

The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).

A benchmark high/low is a price peak/trough that we can use to compare performance. ETFs that break above benchmark highs, such as the mid March highs, show relative strength. ETFs that fail to exceed these highs show relative weakness. ETFs that break below benchmark lows, such as the late April lows, show relative weakness. ETFs that hold these lows show relative strength.

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and

It has been a wild ride for the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) and Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) over the last two weeks as they went from emerging leaders to overreaction laggards and back to leading. The lagging part occurred last Tuesday when stocks fell sharply during the day. This whipsaw action is looking more like short-term noise because these two are leading again with strong recoveries.

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but some yellow flags are starting to appear. Yellow flags argue for some caution and are not outright bearish. For example, defensive sectors are leading, but the offensive sectors are still holding up, even though they are lagging. Small-caps are

The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish and this means we are still in a bull market environment. Nevertheless, the odds for a correction are building and we are now seeing a dramatic move away from small-caps, which is reflected in some key breadth metrics. I will show a new twist on

I am always interested in themes that can drive secular trends. These include electronic payments, electric vehicles, clean energy, marijuana and such. These themes involve narratives and I am always careful with narratives. We all love a good story and stories help sell us

Large-caps and large-cap techs ripped higher the last five-six weeks with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. The Technology SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR are leading the charge among the sectors with 13+ percent gains. Keep in mind that Amazon accounts for 23.5% of XLY and Tesla accounts for 14.45%. These two are not exactly pure plays in the

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR

Today’s commentary will focus on three ARK ETFs. Overall, there are eight ARK ETFs that capture cutting-edge technology or innovation in several areas. Six of the eight have been trading for more than three years. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) started trading in February 2019 and the ARK Space Exploration ETF

The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.

This commentary was originally posted on Wednesday, March 17th, in PDF format. Today I am replacing the PDF with chart images on a web page. Some of the text has been adjusted, but the commentary/charts are largely the same as on Wednesday. These charts cover the massive moves in tech-growth ETFs over the past year, the interest rate debate, Chinese ETFs firming in reversal zones and the Brazil ETFs surging off the 200-day.