Seesaw Market, Techs Align with Treasuries, Consolidation Breakouts in FIVG, ITA and UFO (Premium)

Tech stocks were hit with selling pressure on Thursday and then rebounded along with Treasury bonds on Friday. The narrative seems to be that rising bonds and falling yields are bullish for tech stocks. Regardless of the narrative, several tech related ETFs are holding their breakouts within larger consolidations. Elsewhere, we have SPY hitting a new high within a steady uptrend and IJR leading IWM with a breakout. Defense and 5G ETFs are breaking out of big Ascending Triangles, while UFO is breaking out of a large triangle. EV driven ETFs were strong with CARZ and IDRV breaking out to new highs. We are also seeing strong bids in emerging Asia ETFs (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia). Details and order of play are shown below:

Broad Market Notes

  • SPY with Closing High in Tight Uptrend
  • QQQ with Widening Uptrend
  • IWM Tries to Trend as IJR Breaks Out
  • Seasonal Patterns the Next Four Months
  • Fed Balance Sheet Hits New High
  • BBB and CCC Yield Spreads Narrow Further
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Strong
  • Oil Breaks out to New High
  • Gold Holds above 200-day after Outsized Decline
  • TLT Remains Stuck within Triangle
  • Dollar Tests January Lows (not really support)

ETF Patterns, Setups and Breakouts

  • ETF HighlightsNew Highs Expand – Uptrends and Oversold
    XLK – Head fake and Breakout
    XLV, ITB and IHI Flirt with 50-day
    KRE Holds Breakout – Barely
    FIVG Leads Techs with Ascending Triangle Breakout
    SOXX and IPAY Hold Bounces within Uptrends
    IGV, CIBR, FDN: Breakouts within Triangles Hold
    JETS Gets Cold Feet as Defense ETFs Break Out
    PBW, ICLN and TAN Hit Underside of 200-day
    IBB Continues to Hold 200-day
    Energy ETFs Hit New Highs
    CARZ Extends on Breakout and Leads Group
    COPX Tests Rising 50-day with RSI Oversold
    DBA and SLX Hold Breakouts
    SLV Hits Resistance, but Holds Upswing
    UFO Goes for a Triangle Breakout
    Emerging Asia Gets a Bid (THD, VNM, EPHE, EIDO)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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