Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains because they show absolute and relative strength this year. Note that SPY is down 4.3% year-to-date.

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators measure participation within the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Finally, we analyze yield spreads to see if the credit market show confidence or stress.

Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains. SPY is down 3.23% this year. 23 of the 60 equity ETFs in

The next report will be on Monday, March 17th (before my Guinness) Report/Video Headlines Uptrends Reversed The Current Breakdown and Reversal Reviewing the 2022 Breakdown and Bear Market Price Target – Until the Facts Change Full Cycle – Bull (2021), Bear (2022) Bull (2024), Bear (2025) Uptrends Reversed The major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with sharp declines this year. Small and mid caps started with trend reversals in late February (MDY, IJR, IWM). Large-caps followed with trend reversals

Today’s report will cover the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs that were featured in yesterday’s video. Precious metals are leading the commodity complex and this strength is transferring to the gold and silver miners ETFs. Industrial metals ETFs are not far behind with copper taking the lead here. Even so, copper miners remain subdued and have yet to break out. I am not covering

We have two videos on this page. First, there is a comprehensive video covering index, sector and industry group ETFs (equity ETFs). SPY and QQQ broke down, a couple sectors are holding up and a handful of industry group ETFs have yet to break their January lows. We then turn commodity ETFs, which are showing strength, as our bond ETFs. This vid conclude with the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

Stocks were broadsided the last three weeks with almost all equity ETFs losing ground. High-beta names are leading lower with the ARK ETFs (ARKK, ARKF, ARKG) down over 25%. Tech-related ETFs are right behind with declines ranging from 11.43% for Cybersecurity (CIBR) to 19.76% for Robotics AI (ARTY). Only four equity ETFs in my trading universe are showings

There are five new setups today and some updates to prior setups. We start with three stocks from the defense industry because the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is one of the leading industry group ETFs. I am also featuring a pharma stock (BMY) because the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength here in 2025. And finally, we have an off-price retailer (TJX). Even though it is

There are sizable and concerning pockets of weakness within the stock market, but SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends and testing key levels. The EW S&P 500 ETF, Technology SPDR and Industrials SPDR joined the breakdown list, along with small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps (MDY). One tech ETF stands out. We are also seeing long-term uptrends and relative strength in these eight ETFs (XLF, XLC, XLU, CIBR, IHI, AMLP, IYZ, GLD).

Stocks were hit hard the last two weeks with small-caps and tech stocks leading the way lower. SPY is down around 4.6% from its late February high and entering the garden-variety correction range (5-8 percent). Believe it or not, five to eight percent pullbacks are not that uncommon – but they feel a lot worse

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. I am also seeing splits within sectors and industry groups. This is a selective bull market. Large-caps are holding up better in February and small-caps are lagging. The tech sector and Nasdaq 100 are also holding up relatively well, even with the swoon over the last five days.

Breadth weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with NDX breadth leading the way. S&P 1500 breadth remains the weakest of the three (blame small-caps and mid-caps). This week’s big shift is the breakout in the 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the break down in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. Lower rates may seem positive for stocks, but

I will post a Market Regime update later today (26-Feb) that covers breadth, yield spreads and interest rates. The next report will be on Thursday, February 27th.  Stocks were hit hard the last four days, but some firmed on Tuesday as several ETFs hit support from their January lows or prior breakouts zones. SPY is testing the handle lows of the cup-with-handle pattern, while QQQ tests the wedge breakout zone. This is a moment of truth for the market with

Stocks were hit hard the last three days with the high-beta names leading lower. Defensive groups (Healthcare, Staples, Utes) and bonds picked up the slack. Even though the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, there are some sizable pockets of weakness with lower highs forming in key groups (banks, industrials, software, infrastructure), as well as fresh new lows in housing ETFs. Gold is holding strong, but Bitcoin is under pressure as part of the risk-on trade.

Today’s report features five new setups and three setups from the prior week. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is perhaps the strongest group in the market right now and we are covering two stocks from this group. We also have a data center REIT setting up as well as a Mag7 stock hitting a Bullish Setup Zone.

The weight of the evidence continues to support a bull market in stocks. All three major index ETFs are in long-term uptrends and all nine breadth indicators are on bull signals (%Above 200-day SMA, %Above 150-day SMA, High-Low Percent). The breadth indicators weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with Nasdaq 100 breadth

Don’t look now, but tech is back with XLK joining QQQ in the new high parade. We are also seeing new highs in ETFs related to Cybersecurity and AI, as well as breakout extensions in Software (IGV) and Cloud (SKYY). Semis continue to lag, but we will take a second look at the SMH chart with a longer timeframe. Elsewhere, ETFs related to industrials are turning back up, defense ETFs pulled back after new highs and the banking ETFs are holding their breakouts.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks (bull market). Large-caps (SPY, QQQ) are leading equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps (RSP, MDY, IWM). QQQ is leading SPY because the former recorded a fresh 52-wk high last week. Several tech-related ETFs are leading the market with bullish setups forming in MAGS and CLOU. I am also watching the flag breakout in Industrials SPDR and setups in four related ETFs (Aerospace & Defense and Infrastructure).

There are two new setups in this report (PAYC, S), and two monitoring setups (ABNB, COIN). The latter two are monitoring setups because these stocks report earnings after the close today. Trading based on chart setups and signals is discretionary in nature. I do not

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but signs of weakness are appearing under the surface and rates are rising. SPY is near a new high this year, but fewer stocks made it back above their 150 and 200 day SMAs this year, and there were fewer new highs. Breadth is deteriorating and we are now seeing a breakout in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. This could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market.

Large-caps remain strong with SPY forming a bullish continuation pattern and QQQ holding its recent breakout. Small-caps, in contrast, are struggling with their breakouts and lagging. There were lots of wedge breakouts in mid January and these are holding. I am raising my re-evaluation levels on several ETFs. More recently, I am seeing short-term breakouts in ETFs related to industrials and utilities. We also cover ETFs related to AI, blockchain and managed futures.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but small-caps and mid-caps continue to lag. We are watching a bullish pattern in SPY and a breakout QQQ. Several tech-related ETFs extended on their mid January breakouts and hit new highs. Elsewhere, short-term bullish patterns formed for ETFs related to industrials, infrastructure and defense.
The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC) are leading the sectors with new highs here in February. The Technology SPDR (XLK) is holding up as it surged off support

The next report will be on Tuesday, February 11th.  Biotechs are making a move so we start with analysis of three biotech ETFs. IBB was the first to break out. This week we are seeing catch-up breakouts in XBI and ARKG. We first featured IBB on January 23rd as a bullish wedge took shape. Attention then turns to two biotech stocks with long-term uptrends and bullish setups. This report closes with an old school industrial stock that is retesting its

The long-term trends are up for the major index ETFs and their respective breadth indicators are net bullish. Long-term breadth indicators deteriorated sharply in December and rebounded in January, but the rebounds were not that strong. Around 60% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 40% are below

There were many wedge breakouts in mid January and most of these breakouts are holding. Chartists must now set the level that proves these breakouts wrong. Today’s video starts with an example using the Software ETF. We then show the re-evaluation levels for several ETFs with wedge breakouts. Elsewhere, the Technology SPDR is lagging, the Healthcare SPDR is rebounding, the Biotech ETF is going for a breakout and the Gold SPDR is leading with a new high.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, despite an uptick in volatility and a wild news cycle. We are seeing upside leadership from finance, communication services, defense, medical devices, pipelines, cloud, cybersecurity and gold. We are also seeing lots of wedge/channel breakouts and most are holding. Here is the leading ETF symbol list

There are six stock setups today and these setups come from strong areas of the market. These include cloud computing, software, medical devices and broad retail. There is also a biotech stock in the mix. All stocks are in long-term up trends with

The long-term trends are up for the major index ETFs and their respective breadth indicators are net bullish. Long-term breadth indicators deteriorated in December, but rebounded in January. Over 60% of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. New highs also rebounded as

Wait a week and the narrative will change. In mid January, our reports were featuring strength in the middle of the market and in the more mundane sectors, such as industrials, finance and utilities. Last week we saw breakouts in many tech-related ETFs as Stargate was announced. This week we are seeing AI

Today’s report covers the sell off in AI infrastructure stocks and related ETFs. Monday’s decline were excessive, and perhaps an over-reaction, but they did some damage on the charts. NVDA broke its 200-day SMA and the two semiconductor ETFs broke support. Despite a big decline in NVDA, MAGS is holding support with help from other components. We will then look at three ETFs that represent different areas of AI (infrastructure, physical, software).

The major index ETFs fell on Monday, but breadth actually improved as the average stock held up well. This strength under the hood, and this is positive for stocks outside of the AI infrastructure trade. Today’s report will show advancing stocks outpacing declining stocks and an increase in the percentage of S&P 500 above their 200-day SMA. In short, the broader market is still in good shape.

The breakouts are expanding as tech-related stocks surged this week. Last week we saw breakouts in some of the more mundane groups (industrials, finance, utes). Today’s report will focus on ETFs related to tech, the Mag7, AI, cloud, cybersecurity, semiconductors and biotech. With the exception of biotech, many of these ETFs led the market from September to November and then corrected into January. Their corrections ended with surges and breakouts over the last six days.

The long-term trends are up for the major index ETFs and their respective breadth indicators are net bullish. Long-term breadth indicators deteriorated in December, but rebounded sharply in mid January. Over 60% of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. Nasdaq 100 breadth is leading with 64% of its stocks above

There are eight stock setups today. All stocks are in uptrends of varying degrees and sport bullish continuation setups. These setups occur when there is a pullback or bullish continuation pattern forming. If they have yet to break out, I am marking the resistance level to watch (pink line). The re-evaluation level is a support level (blue line) to watch for signs of a failure.

Stocks moved sharply higher last week with several ETFs breaking out of corrective patterns. In particular, there are several falling wedge breakouts so I will detail this pattern using XLI as an example. I will show the prerequisites (uptrend), the Bullish Setup Zone, the pattern signal and the re-evaluation level. After this section, I will link to a PDF report that highlights these breakouts and sets the re-evaluation levels going forward.

After rising sharply from mid December to mid January, Treasury yields fell sharply on benign CPI numbers. The 10-yr Treasury Yield remains in a long-term uptrend with a breakout, but short-term yields are still trending lower and more reflective of Fed policy. The decline in yields sparked a buying binge on Wall Street with leadership coming from the middle of the market (mid-caps). Broad strength in mid-caps triggered a breadth thrust for this group. We are also seeing leadership in ETFs related to finance, industrials and utilities. Seven feature in today’s report. The Gold SPDR and DB Base Metals ETF are also going for breakouts, as is IBIT.

The long-term breadth indicators deteriorated in December, but did not fall enough to trigger bearish signals. The absence of bearish signals means the weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. This also means the current weakness is considered a correction within a bigger bull market. All bear market signals start with corrections, but not all corrections lead to bear market signals.

The evidence still supports a bull market, but stocks are in the midst of a corrective phase. I am watching short-term breadth indicators for thrust signals that would signal an end to the correction. SPY and QQQ are holding up best, while IWM and KRE (banks) lead lower. Elsewhere, I see promising setups in Industrials and Defense ETFs, as well as a critical support test for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Report with video. The weight of the evidence remains bullish, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness within the market. SPY and QQQ are holding up, but RSP and IWM have yet to recover since their December declines. We draw the battle lines. The Industrials SPDR and Finance SPDR are in pullback mode and near Bullish Setup Zone. We also highlight several ETFs with short-term breakouts and bullish setups.

Today’s report will show the deterioration in long-term breadth and the key levels to watch for short-term breadth. We will then review the breakout in the 10-yr Yield and breakdown in the Home Construction ETF. Attention then turns to the key levels for SPY, QQQ and a number of important ETFs. We close with the breakouts in the semiconductor ETFs (SMH and SOXX).

Today’s video starts with the long-term breadth indicators to establish the market regime. Short-term breadth became oversold and remains oversold after a weak bounce. We will set the level needed for a bullish thrust. Large-caps and techs are leading, while mid-caps and small-caps feel the heat from rising rates. A rough December produced pullbacks and many ETFs are trading in bullish setup zones. We cover these and identify short-term resistance going forward.

Today’s report starts with average stocks (equal-weight, mid-caps and small-caps). These groups fell rather sharply in December and gave back their November gains. They have fallen and cannot get back up. Many are trading near bullish setups zones, but remain short of breakouts needed to reverse the short-term pullbacks. We will set the key levels to watch for a dozen ETFs with setups. Attention then turns to gold, Bitcoin and China.

Some warning signs appeared in December, but the weight of the evidence remains bullish. We will start with the long-term breadth indicators and then show the oversold conditions in the short-term breadth indicators. SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends and testing their 50-day SMAs. Meanwhile, tech-related ETFs are leading as SMH holds its 200-day SMA.

Today’s report will highlight the warning signs over the last few weeks and assess the evidence (bull or bear market). Corrections are normal, but what might a normal correction entail? We will review the long-term breadth indicators, yield spreads and the weekly charts for SPY and QQQ, including correction targets. This report ends with two short-term breadth indicators to watch for a bullish signal.

The 10-yr Treasury Yield surged before, and after, the Fed statement. While interest rates are not the only factor affecting stocks, they are the focus right now and we will cover the relationship. S&P 500 stocks are oversold after a 3-week decline and these conditions could lead to a bounce. We will show how to distinguish between a strong bounce and a dead-cat bounce.

Today’s video starts with the deterioration in short-term breadth. Even so, long-term breadth remains net bullish and yield spreads narrow. We then address the surge in the 10-yr yields, weakness in small-caps and the break down in Home Construction ETF. There are setups in the Bank and Defense ETFs, while the Lithium and China ETFs fell back into their consolidations. We close with follow up on fourteen recently featured stocks.

Today’s report starts with an overview of short-term break (weak) and long-term breadth (still bullish). QQQ is leading with a new high, but small-caps breadth is holding up as IJR forms a bullish wedge. We then look at the housing failure, weakness in hard assets, a wedge in gold, a bullish setup in a defense ETF and two cloud stocks with bullish charts.

Today’s report covers a leading stock in the Medical Devices ETF (IHI), which is the strongest group with the Healthcare sector. We then analyze NVDA as it consolidates above the October breakout and shows the SMH chart. Attention then turns to the Cybersecurity group with three stocks forming short-term consolidations.

Today’s video starts with long-term breadth, yield spreads and the major index ETFs to define the broad market environment. We then focus on short-term weakness and the pullbacks in RSP, IWM and MDY. Some tech ETFs are very extended and a key group continues to lag. Housing ETFs are testing support, while gold and silver hold their breakouts. We finish with follow up for eight stocks.