Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Market and ETF Report – A Brutal Year and Month, Three ETFs Stand Out, Short-term Island Reversal Takes Hold (Premium)
As noted in Tuesday’s report and in Wednesday’s video, the majority of ETFs in the Master List (274) are in downtrends. There are a few groups holding up, but even energy and agriculture were hit with selling pressure here in June. Mr Market is dazed, confused

Market/ETF Video – Stocks are Oversold within Strong Downtrends, Downside Participation is High, Ag, Energy and Dollar are Standouts (Premium)
The major index ETFs and big sector SPDRs extended their downtrends and recorded fresh 52-week lows over the last few days. New lows were also seen in most tech and consumer discretionary ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model reflects the broadness of downside participation and widening yield

Market and ETF Report – Bear Market and Oversold, Energy ETF Get Hit, Ag ETFs Hold UP, 3 with Relative Chart Strength (Premium)
There are a lot of downtrends out there and not just stock-based ETFs. The vast majority of stock-based ETFs are in downtrends with Trend Composite values in negative territory. ETFs related to industrial metals, precious metals, bonds and non-Dollar currencies are also in downtrends

Market and ETF Report – Dow Theory and Elliott Wave for Bear Markets, Two Breadth Indicators Have yet to Reach Extremes (Premium)
Today’s commentary will dive into Dow Theory and show some overlap with Elliott Wave. We will show the phase/wave counts for the last bear market and then make an attempt to label the current

Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Broadens as %Above 200-day Sinks and New Lows Surge, Energy and Agriculture are Last Groups Standing (Premium)
The major index ETFs extended their downtrends with a vengeance over the last five trading days. It was a most exceptional period because almost everything declined the last five days – and I do mean everything. 52-week lows expanded

Market and ETF Report – Nowhere to Hide, Short-term Oversold in Bear Market, Oil and Ag Still in Uptrends (Premium)
It was a “sell everything” moment the last four days as stocks, bonds, commodities and non-Dollar currencies declined. The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) rose 2.82% the last four days and the Corn ETF (CORN) was up .46%. Those are the only two ETFs

Market and ETF Report – SPY Near Reversal Zone, XLU Holds Up, XLP Gets Counter-Trend Bounce, Home Construction Shows Relative Strength (Premium)
Small-caps are outperforming large-caps over the last one to two weeks because large-caps stalled and small-caps continued higher. Even so, I am not following the siren song of small-cap relative strength and am more concerned with short-term relative weakness in

Market/ETF Video – %Above 200-day, New Highs vs Lows, Gold and Copper Hold Breakouts, Materials and Defense ETFs Surge, Ag and Wheat Are Setting Up (Premium)
The major index ETFs are in the midst of a bounce, but this bounce is still considered a bear market bounce. The bigger trends are still down for SPY and QQQ, the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yield spreads are elevated. Despite bullish breadth thrusts in late May, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs

Market and ETF Report – Energy and Ag with Consistent Uptrends, Some Stock-Based ETFs Holding Up Better, Watching Breakouts in Metals ETFs (Premium)
Today’s report will start with the Composite Breadth Model and some words on the Market Regime because this is the dominant force at work for stocks and stock-based ETFs. Some stock-based ETFs are featured in this report because they are either in uptrends on the price chart, have positive Trend Composites or held their January-March lows (did not break down).

Market and ETF Report – TLT Turns Down Again, Dollar Breaks Out, Gold Firms after Breakout, Platinum Show Relative Strength (Premium)
Today’s report starts with bonds, the Dollar and gold. I am not, however, going to tie moves in one asset to movements in another. There are some relationships at work, but relations and correlations change and sometimes do not work out as expected. Instead, I will simply analyze

Market/ETF Video – Bounces within Bigger Downtrends for SPY and Five Big Sectors, Choosing what to Focus on and What to Ignore (Premium)
The major index ETFs got big bounces last week, but these are still oversold bounces within bigger downtrends and within the context of a bear market. Despite some breadth thrusts, the Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and yield spreads remain very elevated. Gold is struggling to hold its breakout as the Dollar and

Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces within Bigger Uptrends, The Real Leaders, Chart Strength by Holding Jan-Feb Lows (Premium)
There was a big oversold bounce with some of the most beaten down ETFs leading the way. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) and Home Construction ETF (ITB) were up over 10% in three days.

Palladium: A Trend Changing Event or Correction Overshoot? – Plus another Commodity ETF with a Wedge Correction (Premium)
There are two commodity ETFs with falling wedge patterns working. One falling wedge resulted in a deep pullback and the other in a shallow pullback. Either way, I view these falling wedges as corrections within uptrends and am watching for breakouts. This article will look at the deep pullback in the

Market and ETF Report – Working with Benchmark Lows, Setting Levels that Prove Breakouts Wrong, Using the ATR Trailing Stop (Premium)
The market regime is bearish, but SPY and QQQ are still in oversold territory that could give way to a bounce. In addition, we are seeing short-term strength in some of the high-beta ETFs as Treasury yields fell over the last two weeks. Personally, I am not

Market/ETF Video – Oversold in a Bear Market and Long-term Downtrend, Slim Pickings in Stock-Based ETFs, Metals Come Alive (Premium)
Stocks remain short-term oversold and the major index ETFs are still near their May lows. This could give way to a bounce, but the bear market and long-term downtrends continue to provide stiff headwinds. There