Current Reports & Videos  

Russell 2000 Hits Inflection Point as it Battles to Hold Uptrend – Plus IJH & IJR

The small and mid cap ETFs are at inflection points as they battle to hold their long-term uptrends. This group lagged in September, held up in October and turned volatile in November. Will weakness in semis and large-cap tech drag them down? Today’s report will show the key levels to watch for a breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and spotlight a teetering trend-following indicator. $IWM $IJH $IJR

Knee-Jerk Leaders/Laggards – Energy Hit Hard – MAGS and SMH Go Separate Ways

The markets moved into overdrive on Wednesday with the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting to new highs and some beaten-down groups surging. The Technology SPDR was not part of this group as it closed down a fraction. Gold Miners, Home Construction, Medical Devices and Solar Energy surged over 5%. Meanwhile, Oil, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Memory and AI Power Infrastructure fell over 5%. The bet here is for reduced tensions in the Middle East, a slower data center build-out, lower inflation, lower interest rates, and more focus on healthcare and clean energy. $XLE $USL $RSP $UST2Y $UST10Y $MAGS $SMH

Tech Breaks Down – Spreads Widen – Smalls, Mids and Other Sectors Pick Up Slack

The market is split. What else is new? Technology, Communication Services, Mag7 and the Nasdaq 100 stocks were leading the market into early October. This changed with outsized declines in mid October and the rotation out of these groups continued into November 2nd. Money did not leave the stock market as it rotated into small-caps, mid-caps and the other nine sectors. We do not have a bear market on our hands, but the rotations within the market are very pronounced. $SPY $QQQ $RSP $IJR $IJH $QQEW $SUPA50R $MIDA50R $SKYY $IGV $CIBR

Bullish Setups for the Russell 2000 ETF, Industrials SPDR and Amazon

Today’s report highlights bullish setups in the Russell 2000 ETF, Industrials SPDR and Amazon. All three are correcting within uptrends and should be watched for breakouts. Small-caps are showing relative strength since October, breadth is bullish for the industrials sector and Amazon recovered after its earnings-related gap. $IWM $XLI $AMZN

Breadth Models Remain Bullish – Rates Pull Back – Yield Spreads Show Stress

The breadth models remain on bullish signals since summer 2025 and the major index ETFs have been in uptrends since early April. In the absence of bearish signals, this means the weight of the evidence is still bullish for stocks. Breadth indicators were hit hard in September, but improved in October as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs moved from 42% to 60%. New lows expanded in September, but new highs expanded in October as High-Low Percent returned to positive territory.

QQQ Derails with Outsized Decline – Defensive Groups Lead – Biotech Breakout

Wicked rotations are underway within the stock market. Tech led in September, but turned laggard in October as QQQ experienced an outsized decline, which can derail an uptrend. Healthcare lagged in September, but turned leader in October. Overall, Healthcare and Energy are the strongest sectors. Within Healthcare, the Biotech ETF is taking the lead with an October breakout. $QQQ $XLK $XLV $XLE $IBB

Finance Hits Retracement – AI/Semis Get Oversold Bounces – Biotechs Lead

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 Equal-Weight define the rotations within the market in September and October. Currently, the S&P 500 EW ETF is leading, but this ETF is hitting a moment of truth (key retracement). AI and semiconductor ETFs bounced this week, but these look like oversold bounces after breakdowns. Elsewhere, money continues to move into healthcare with recent breakouts in the two biotech ETFs. $QQQ $RSP $XLF $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $IBB $XBI

Agribusiness and Aero-Defense ETFs Firm – Oil Services ETFs Turn Up

Today’s report focuses on four ETFs that are setting up near Bullish Setup Zones. When correcting after a big advance or when forming a bullish continuation pattern, these are zones to watch for firming and a reversal. The firming means buying and selling pressure moved into equilibrium and this sets the stage for a potential reversal and breakout. This report shows the breakout levels to watch and re-evaluation level to consider should we see breakouts. $ITA $OIH $XES $MOO

Choppy Trading – Seasonals – Thrust Set Up – SPY, QQQ & XLK Hold Breakout Zones

Today’s report will focus on the broader market because the ingredients are in place for some choppy trading and a rally into yearend. Trading could be choppy because the Fed meets today and tomorrow, earnings season is in full swing and the US elections are next week. I am sure that there are a dozen other reasons (yields spreads, seasonal patterns, rates, oil etc…). $SPY $QQQ $XLK $IJH $IJR $SUPA50R $UST2Y $USL $SPXA200R

Mid-Cap Breadth Indicator Sets Up as Underlying ETF Battles Make or Break Zone

The S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF was hit hard September, but the long-term uptrend remains intact as the ETF hits a make or break zone this month. Breadth also took a hit as it became oversold for the first time since March. This oversold condition could lead to a thrust signal as mid-cap breadth improved in October. Today’s report will detail the breadth setup and define the make or break zone for IJH. $IJH $MIDA50R

Energy Outperforms Tech – Refiners Lead – Oil Services and MLP ETFs Set Up

The Energy SPDR is the runaway year-to-date sector leader with the Technology SPDR at distant second. The energy sector sets the stage for the industry group ETFs within the sector. If the sector is bullish, then we want to look at industry groups and stocks within this sector for bullish setups. $XLE $XOP $CRAK $OIH $XES $AMLP $MLPX

Software vs Semis – Software ETFs Sport Leading Uptrends – Adobe Turns

Today’s report will focus on the two software ETFs and Adobe, a software stock that could be turning the corner. Software is in focus because this group is showing leadership since June. For example, the Software SPDR (XSW) is up 25% since June, while the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) is down 24%. Semiconductors, however, are outperforming software when we go back to April and include the massive surge in April-May. Perhaps semis will come back, but right now software shows relative and absolute strength. $IGV $XSW $ADBE

Tech Stumbles as Semis/AI Break Down – Cyber, Software and Cloud Not Immune

Tech leadership is slipping as semiconductors break down and the AI trade unravels in October. XLK and QQQ remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs, which suggests they are still in long-term uptrends. However, both produced outsized declines in October and their September breakouts failed. Outsized declines are sudden and sharp declines that can derail an uptrend. $QQQ $QQEW $SPY $MAGS $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $DRAM $SOXX $SKYY $CIBR $IGV

One Sector Stands Head and Shoulders above the Rest as Four Battle 200-day EMAs

The broader market is split, but the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, which means there is a bull market somewhere. Today’s report will show the three strongest sectors based on price. Internally, healthcare is the clear leader because it has by far the most stocks in uptrends. Consumer Discretionary is the big laggard, but strength elsewhere is compensating for this weakness. $SPY $XLK $XLY $XLV $XLF $XLI $XLE $XLP $XLB

Thrust Falls Short – October Change of Heart – Semis Set Up Bearish

SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends, but the market is having a rethink here in October. After leading for most of 2026, the Technology SPDR and QQQ are lagging in October as they fell sharply the last six days. Moreover, both fell sharpy after hitting new highs and such declines can derail an uptrend. Elsewhere, the junk end of the stock market is bearing the brunt of selling pressure with the Russell 2000 and Russell Microcap ETFs leading the way lower. Breadth Thrust setups were brewing in early October, but the actual thrust signals failed to materialize. $IJR $IJR $IWM $IWC $XLK $QQQ $QQEW $SMH $SOXX $DRAM

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