SPY and QQQ are getting oversold bounces within larger downtrends. Short-term, a number of factors came together for this bounce. First, the turn-of-the-month shows a bullish bias, especially the October-November turn. Second, monthly seasonal

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Over 75% of S&P 1500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs and 52-week lows are outpacing 52-week highs by a wide margin. SPY (large-caps), MDY (mid-caps) and IWM (small-caps) are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. QQQ is still above its 200-day SMA, but

We are taking a step back today with some weekly charts for a long-term perspective. It is not pretty because we are in a bear market and risk in stocks is well above average. SPY and QQQ recently reversed their upswings. This means the immediate

The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks and deteriorating even further. Around 70% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Some 26.4% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 73.5% are below.

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. 62% of S&P 500 stocks and 65% of S&P 1500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. The S&P 500 EW ETF, S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF are well below their 200-day SMAs and

SPY and QQQ are holding up and still in uptrends. However, some 63% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. The small-cap and mid-cap index ETFs are trading well below their 200-day SMAs and near their spring lows. The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. SPY and QQQ are

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. SPY and QQQ are in downtrends the last two months, but they are getting oversold bounces after becoming oversold last week. Large-caps and large-cap techs are leading the market. In particular, software and

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. First, long-term breadth indicators are net bearish. Second, the S&P 500 EW ETF, Russell 2000 ETF and S&P SmallCap 600 are below their 200-day SMAs. These ETFs also fell back to their

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) almost tagged its rising 200-day SMA after a sharp decline from early September to early October. SPY is short-term oversold, but the weight of the evidence is bearish. The Composite Breadth Model is at -1 and most stocks within the index

There is a clear bearish chain of events over the last few months. It all started when the Russell 2000 ETF, S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR failed at their February highs in July. SPY and QQQ were well above these highs, but small-caps and mid-caps were not keeping pace

SPY and QQQ remain in corrective mode, but they are both oversold after sharp declines the last nine days. These oversold conditions could pave the way for a bounce in the coming days. The risk is that SPY becomes oversold and remains oversold (continues lower). Most

SPY and QQQ broke down last week and the medium-term trends are down. That’s the negative news. On the positive side, the long-term trends are still up and both are well above their 200-day SMAs. This suggests that the current decline is a correction within the long-term

The near-term outlook is negative with SPY and QQQ in corrective mode. Today’s report will put forth some downside projections, but take these with a pinch of salt. Or rather, take these with a handful of salt and a shot of tequila. Projections are subject to change should

It ain’t over until large-caps buckle. SPY and QQQ have yet to break short-term support. These two are holding the market up because we are seeing widespread weakness outside of a few large-caps. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF hit their lowest (closing) levels since late June. The Retail SPDR hit its lowest (closing

There are no changes in the broad market conditions. SPY and QQQ are in short-term uptrends and their breakouts held as both bounced over the last four days. These bounces affirm short-term support and keep

SPY and QQQ fell back after their breakouts and bounced off broken resistance levels. These short-term bounces affirm supports and keep the short-term uptrends alive. It is important to monitor these two because the rest of the market looks rather shaky. Breadth is not keeping pace, September seasonality is here and mid-caps are lagging.

The market looks fragile and is definitely split. Large-cap techs are leading, small-caps are lagging and mid-caps are caught in between. The long-term trends are up for SPY and QQQ as both hit new highs in July. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in contrast, did not break their early February highs. They are largely range bound

The chart below shows 25-year seasonality for the S&P 500. There are three strong periods and three weak periods. The strong periods are mid March to early May, July, and mid-October to yearend (green arrows). The seasonally weak periods are January, mid-February to mid-March

The big trend is the dominant force at work and SPY remains in an uptrend since the higher high in early February. Seasonal patterns, even when strong, are secondary to the bigger trend. Seasonal weakness in September could still materialized

SPY peaked on July 27th with a big outside reversal day (red arrow) and broke short-term support with a gap-decline on August 2nd. SPY and the major index ETFs then fell into mid August and became

The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF fell sharply in August, but these declines look like corrections within bigger uptrends. However, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF also fell. These two, in contrast, are in long-term trading ranges and immediate downtrends. We

A classic trading technique is to look for short-term oversold conditions within longer term uptrends. Short-term oversold conditions provide opportunities to partake in the long

Selling pressure intensified in August as we saw the first bearish breadth thrust since mid March. I use the 10-day EMA of Advance-Decline Percent to measure breadth thrusts.

Stocks are in pullback mode right now. We never know which pullback will extend far enough to result in a larger downtrend. Currently, the declines in SPY,QQQ and others look like pullbacks after big advances from May to July. There is, however, concern with recent reversals in retail (XRT) and banking (KRE). I would

Stocks moved into pullback mode the last few weeks. It started with QQQ peaking on July 19th and SPY peaking on July 31st. It is way too early to call these “major” peaks. At present, these are just short-term peaks because both ETFs are

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation remains strong. SPY and QQQ remain in short-term

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation remains strong. The only short-term negative is actually a long-term positive.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation continues to improve. We are seeing new highs in several tech-related ETFs, the Home Construction ETF and the Industrials SPDR.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation continues to improve. The Retail SPDR is coming to life and the Home Construction ETF continues

The weight of the evidence is bullish because the Composite Breadth Model is positive and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. We are also seeing some risk-on with Nasdaq 100 stocks, technology and housing leading the market.

High-Low Percent is the percentage of stocks making 52-week highs less the percentage of stocks making 52-week lows. The chart below shows High-Low Percent for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. This indicator turns bullish

High-Low Percent is the percentage of stocks making 52-week highs less the percentage of stocks making 52-week lows. The chart below shows High-Low Percent for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. This indicator turns bullish with a move above 10% and bearish with a move below -10%. The first indicator window

The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA increased for the S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400. $SPX %Above 200-day SMA was below 40% last week and moved to 50%. $MID

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish, but the market is quite split and I am focused on the swings of late. In particular, the upswing since mid March. Large-caps and high-quality

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish at +5, but there are splits when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the different indexes and yield spreads. Small-caps are underperforming and the CCC spread shows stress at the low end of the bond market.

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and at +5, but I would characterize this as a fragile +5. Today’s video will dive into the five inputs that make up the model and show why the +5 looks fragile. SPY and QQQ are in uptrends and continue to lead, but the equal-weight S&P 500 and IWM are in downtrends

The stock market is mixed, very mixed. The tape is bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative, but large-caps are holding up because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Yield spreads remain elevated and show stress

The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to