Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY hit a new high in late December and remains above its rising 200-day SMA. 63.2% of S&P 500 stocks are also above their 200-day SMAs. Even though this means around a third (36.8%) are below
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY is trading very close to a new high and remains …Symbols covers: SPY, QQQ, MAGS, XLK, XLY, XLI, XLV, XLC, IEF, $UST10Y, ITB, XHB, ITA, ICLN, IFRA, IYZ
Trading short-term patterns can be messy business with whipsaws, failed breakouts and support breaks. This is especially true for ETFs, which have dozens of moving parts (stocks). Each stock has its
Precious metals continue to lead. Not just one or two, but all precious metals and their respective miners. All are up more than 30% since August. ….Symbols Covered: IEF, SPY, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL, CPER, DBB, COPX, SRUUF, URA, IBIT
This report features stock setups covering Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), First Solar (FSLR), ON Semi (ON), AES Corp (AES) and United Rentals (URI)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. SPY is trading less than 1.5% below its 52-week high and well above the rising 200-day SMA. This means there is a long-term uptrend in the most important benchmark for US stocks. Within the S&P 500, 63% of component
Stocks are performing great since August, but metals related ETFs are performing even better. Bonds are lagging with a breakdown in TLT. Today’s report covers GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL, SRUUF, URA, CPER, DBA, IEF, TLT, IBIT
Today report covers stocks from the MAG7, networking industry, industrials sector and healthcare sector. Names featured: Amazon (AMZN), Arista Networks (ANET), Johnson Controls (JCI), Tempus AI (TEM), AbbVie (ABBV)
The stock market remains quite mixed, but the pockets of strength are still larger than the pockets of weakness. Some 60% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, but this means 40% are below, and in long-term downtrends. There is a large pocket of
Today’s report covers Gold, Silver, Gold/Silver Miners, Copper, Based Metals, Uranium, Bonds, Bitcoin and the Aerospace & Defense ETF, which has a bullish setup working. The chart below shows the precious metals complex leading since August. In fact, all ETFs on
Autodesk (ADSK) provides software and services for product development and manufacturing to the industrials sector. It has been a choppy ride since July, but the overall uptrend remains intact, and
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, despite sizable pockets of weakness within the stock market. SPY is above its rising 200-day SMA and held its October low (650). The most important benchmark for US stocks remains strong. SPX %Above 200-day SMA bounced off the 50% level and is currently at 60%. The cup
Asset class performance since August is quite telling. Precious metals related ETFs are leading the charge with the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up some 46%. Copper (CPER), Base Metals (DBB) and Uranium (SRUUF) are in the middle of the pack with double digit gains. Stocks are at the low end with
I like to see three timeframes when looking for trading setups. Today’s charts show a daily candlestick chart in the top window with the 200-day SMA, %B (20,2) and the price-relative (symbol/RSP ratio). %B is used to find oversold conditions within an uptrend, while the price-relative measures relative performance.
Cracks are appearing in the technology sector and Nasdaq 100. This is an important development because these two were responsible for most of the gains within the S&P 500. Housing, regional banks and consumer discretionary were already leading lower.
Precious metals continue to lead the pack with the Silver ETF (SLV) sporting the biggest gain over the last three months (+40%). Industrial metals are also outperforming stocks with the Copper ETF (CPER) and DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) up over 10%. QQQ is up a measly 7%. Even bonds are up with TLT gaining 3.65% and
Nucor (NUE) is steel stock that is part of the Materials SPDR (XLB) and Metals & Mining SPDR (XME). XLB is a lagging sector because of the chemical industry, but XME is a leading group with a 65% year-to-date gain. The DJ US Steel Index ($DJUSST) is also leading with a 24.6% gain this year.
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are large pockets of weakness within the market. 56.6% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 43.4% are below and in long-term downtrends. Even though this is a rather large swath of the market, the cup
Stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought during strong uptrends. We see this play out in QQQ as it moved above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) several times and continued higher. Bollinger Bands (200,2) are two standard
There are some interesting developments in the alternative ETF universe. Gold, silver and their respective miners corrected within leading uptrends. This means they are setting up bullish. Bonds got clobbered the last six days, but TLT is also setting up bullish as it tests the prior breakout. The Bitcoin ETF hit a six month low to become
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness with some 45% of S&P 500 components trading below their 200-day SMAs. This makes it a challenging environment for stock picking.
While the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, the market is becoming more split as the pockets of weakness expand. 54.80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which is the lowest percentage since June. This also
QQQ is looking overbought because it closed above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) twice this week. As noted in Part 1, stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought in strong uptrends. This is why we need a momentum indicator to signal a bearish shift. This report will first show how to use StochRSI for momentum shifts and then identify the key levels for Nasdaq 100 breadth.
Gold, silver and their respective miners show the same chart characteristics: long-term uptrends, explosive moves from late August to mid October, sharp corrections the last eight days and short-term oversold conditions. We will start with the Gold SPDR (GLD) chart because gold is
The market environment remains bullish with tech and AI related stocks leading the charge. Today’s report features a stock that fits in both the semiconductor and software groups (Cadence CDNS). We will also cover Tesla, which is part of the Mag7 ETF, another market leader. Attention then turns to an off-price retailer with a breakout (Burlington Stores BURL).
The weight of the evidence remains bullish with the same groups leading the way higher. SPY and QQQ hit new highs to affirm the dominance of large-caps and large-cap techs. Tech, industrials and utilities are the strongest sectors with new highs this month. Within technology, the AI-related ETFs are leading the charge with short-term breakouts last
Today’s report starts with bonds because these safe haven assets are trending higher. Bonds have yet to start outperforming stocks, but traders should watch this relationship for clues on the risk appetite for stocks. Precious metals were rocked this week as gold, silver and their respective
Today’s report features five stock setups and two ETFs. Finding setups during earnings season is a challenge because I try to avoid stocks that are reporting within the next two weeks, and most stocks in the S&P 500 are reporting between now and month end. I am revisiting three prior
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs in October and remain in leading uptrends. Around 65% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. Even though this means
Metals have been leading the financial markets with massive moves the eleven weeks. SPY (+4%), QQQ (+6.6%) and IWM (+14.10%) sport nice gains since August 1st. These gains, however, are dwarfed by Silver Miners SIL (+65%), Gold Miners GDX (+57.77%), Uranium URA +47.64%) and Silver SLV (+45%). The Gold SPDR (GLD) is in the middle
Today’s report features two stocks from the Consumer Staples sector, two from the Industrials sector and two from the Technology sector. This is a relatively balanced approach that may help should the market turn volatile in the coming weeks.
It is still a bull market, but some key groups are under pressure. We start with a performance chart showing the percentage gain/loss for 15 ETFs. The right side of the chart shows the performance ranking. The Gold
Precious metals and gold-silver miners are outperforming tech and AI ETFs in 2025. Who would have thought? The chart below shows year-to-date performance for SPY, QQQ, some tech ETFs and some metals ETFs. SPY and QQQ are up 15 and 20 percent year-to-date, respectively. Even so, the lowly Copper ETF is outperforming these two with a
The stock market remains in bull mode with tech, utilities and industrials leading the chart. There is also a newcomer to the party as the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) broke out over the last two weeks. Today’s report covers two tech stocks, a leading consumer staple and four healthcare stocks. Symbols covered include: AVGO, CRWD, WMT, AMGN, INCY, COR and CAH
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is also chugging along with new 52-week highs here in early October, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) and S&P MidCap 400 ETF (IJH) stalled the last four weeks and remain well below their
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Large-caps (SPY) and QQQ (large techs) are leading with new highs on Monday. 66% of S&P 500 are above their 200-day SMAs, which means the vast majority of stocks are in long-term uptrends. The S&P 1500
Metals remain strong with gold, silver and their respective miners leading the charge. Industrial metals are also strong with copper, DBA and uranium extending on their late August breakouts. Even Bitcoin caught a bid this week with the government shutdown. Oil reacted differently with a rather sharp decline this past week. I would not read too much into the ramifications of the government shutdown
Today’s report features six stocks in leading groups. These include the MAG7, Aerospace & Defense, Robotics & Automation, Crypto, Semis and AI Data Center. The market environment is currently bullish, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness because around a third of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Chartists can increase the odds of success by focusing on stocks
in leading uptrends and within leading groups.
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks with large-caps and tech stocks leading the way. Utilities, defense and big banks are also strong. Small-caps and mid-caps are more mixed. We could be in for some volatility as the headlines flow from Washington DC. What else is new? We could also be in for a rough ride because October is
Commodities are still an option, even in the AI age. Precious metals and their respective miners continue to lead the market with big moves since early August. Industrial metals are strong overall with copper catching a big bid this week. Energy is also showing promise as oil firms above its breakout zone and looks poised for a breakout. Today’s report will cover metals and oil. Note that I covered crypto and uranium on Tuesday. Symbols covered: GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL, CPER, DBB, USO, XLE, OIH, XOP, FCG.
Today’s report features two stocks with leading uptrends, two stocks with short-term breakouts and four utility stocks with breakouts. Most of these stocks come from strong areas of the stock market: software, defense and utilities. Quest Diagnostics is part of the Healthcare sector, which is lagging the broader market. Mercado Libre is an ecommerce giant in Latin America. Today’s stocks are: ADSK, DGX, MELI, DRS, AEE, CNP, ETR and EVRG.
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. Strength is concentrated in three sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. Outside of these sectors, I am also seeing leadership in precious metals, industrial metals, clean energy, aerospace-defense, big banks and telecom. Today’s report will show some trends and setups for ETFs
The bull run continues with large-caps and large-cap techs leading the charge. SPY, QQQ and XLK hit fresh new highs this week. Breadth is strong enough to support a bull market with 62.80% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. With new highs in SPY, QQQ and IWM, this percentage, however, is relatively subdued. In a strong bull market, I would expect
There are two stock markets. First, we have the large-cap driven ETFs, such as SPY and QQQ, where the top ten stocks account for a disproportionate share. Second, we have the rest of the stock market, which covers the other 490 stocks in the S&P 500 or the other 90 stocks in QQQ
Bonds, precious metals, industrial metals and Bitcoin all moved higher in September. Throw in stocks and we have bull markets almost everywhere. Bonds extended on their late June signal, gold and silver extended on their late August breakouts, and Bitcoin broke out of a falling flag this week. Next week could bring fireworks
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) remains in a confirmed uptrend with a new high on Wednesday. SPY edged higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on both days. Participation is wearing thin
This report features stocks with uptrends and bullish setups. We start with Coindesk as it makes one step backward after two steps forward. Attention then turns to short-term consolidation patterns in DoorDash, Gilead, Howmet, Kratos and Palantir. MKS Inc is tracing out a head-and-shoulders and Veeva Systems reversed within a bigger bullish consolidation.
Today’s report starts with one paragraph and one chart summing up current market conditions, which are bullish. Techs are lagging the last five weeks, but other parts of the market are picking up the slack. Attention then turns to ETFs with bullish setups or signals. ETF related to Healthcare, Insurance and Blockchain
SPY, QQQ and XLK are in uptrends with the mid-late August lows marking first support. Support breaks would reverse the short-term uptrends and argue for a corrective period.
Precious metals continue to lead the financial markets as gold, silver and their respective miners hit new highs. The recent breakouts were not a surprise because bullish continuation patterns formed in August. We are also seeing continued strength in Base Metals, as well as a recent breakout in Copper. Uranium extended on its breakout, but Bitcoin remains in corrective mode.