Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Weekend Video – Correction Concerns vs Signals, Materials Related ETFs Break Out, XLI and XLF Stall at Resistance (Premium)
SPY and QQQ eked out new highs this week and IWM even bounced. However, IWM is still down over 5% the last twenty weeks and seriously lagging the other two, which are up double digits. Despite continued strength in SPY, there are some concerns brewing under the surface. Yield spreads edged up, S&P 500 breadth is
3 Breadth Indicators to Watch for a Correction Signal (Premium)
As noted on Thursday, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a clear uptrend and price action remains bullish. The concerns start when we look under the surface and move down in market cap. The S&P 500 hit a new high this week and yet less than 60% of SPX stocks
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Another Rotation, Groups with Corrective Patterns, IWM Bounces off Support (Premium)
Is the market poised for another rotation? I posed this question last Friday with analysis of the 10-yr Treasury yield, which fell sharply from mid May to mid July (1.7 to 1.2 percent). During this time, SPY continued its grind higher and tech-related ETFs surged with double digit advances.
Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead as IWM Holds Support, Lots of Wedge/Channel Corrections and a Couple of Breakouts (Premium)
Today’s video starts with new highs in SPY and QQQ, and the extended trading range in IWM. Large-caps, large-cap techs and healthcare are leading the market, while small-caps, industrials, finance and others are lagging. Even though several groups are lagging because they declined the last one to three months, many formed falling wedge
Gold Hits Make or Break Level, TLT Retraces Half of Prior Decline and Bank ETFs Follow the 10-yr Yield (Premium)
The Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced in July and hit a make or break resistance zone. Overall, the long-term trend is down for GLD. Price is below the 200-day, the 200-day is falling and StochClose is bearish. Price is also moving from the upper left to the lower right of the chart. Shorter term, GLD bounced off the 67% retracement line and broken resistance in July
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Divided Market Since May, Tech and Healthcare Extended, Others Still Correcting (Premium)
The rodeo is in town as the S&P 500 SPDR fell 2.25% on Friday-Monday and surged 2.25% on Tuesday-Wednesday. Despite the same percentage moves, a 2.25% advance is not enough to completely erase a 2.25% decline and SPY remains below last Thursday’s close. The gray lines on the chart below show when a two-day 2% advance follows a two-day
Major index ETFs Become Short-term Oversold, Three Medium-term Issues to Watch going Forward (Premium)
Stocks were hit pretty hard the last few weeks with small-caps leading the way. The recent outsized declines created short-term oversold conditions that could lead to a mean-reversion bounce in the coming days. However, there are some medium-term issues that point to a corrective period in the coming weeks. Namely
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups -Big Tech Gets Extended, Small-Growth Breaks Out, Copper ETFs Set Up, Telecom Pops (Premium)
SPY remains in a steady uptrend, QQQ is leading with a surge to new highs and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) remains stuck in a consolidation. The deterioration in breadth is affecting mid-caps and small-caps, but not large-cap tech driven ETFs, such as SPY and QQQ. Small-caps, however, got a big bounce on Friday. I am not quite ready to call for a small-cap revival, but I am watching
Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Continue to Lead, Gold Pops, Commodity-Related ETFs form Bullish Setups (Premium)
Today’s video starts with SPY and its grind higher. Large-cap techs are leading QQQ higher and these stocks are also contributing to the gains in SPY. Mid-caps and small-caps continue to stall as medium-term breadth indicators deteriorate. The big tech-related ETFs are strong, but extended.
QQQ and Techs Lift SPY, Mid-caps and Small-caps Continue Correction, Breadth Deteriorates to September-October Levels (Premium)
The big trends remain up, but medium-term breadth and price action suggest that we are currently in a corrective period. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, mid-caps and small-caps got the correction memo, but large-cap techs, SPY and QQQ did not. Healthcare stocks are also holding up well and contributing to strength in SPY.
Weekend Video – Large vs Small, XLK Accelerates Higher, Gold/Silver Firm, Oversold Conditions in Commodity-related ETFs (Premium)
Stocks finished on a high note yet again with large-caps leading the way as SPY and QQQ hit new highs. IWM was down, but remains with a triangle breakout. The yield curves narrowed even further in late June and this was accompanied by new highs in oil. Short-term breadth is dragging, but
Cannabis Attempts to Turn, Gold Finds Support, Timber Gets Very Oversold, Telecom Forms Bullish Setup (Premium)
Today we start with an up and coming industry group ETF (cannabis) and then turn to some commodity-related ETFs. Gold and silver were clobbered in
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Large-caps Alone at the Top, Long List of ETFs with Corrections (Premium)
The overall picture is bullish for stocks, but there are some “less strong” pockets. Large-caps are leading with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs in late June. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 ETF remains below its March high, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR peaked in late April and the S&P 500 EW ETF has been stuck in a triangle since mid May. The market is not firing on all cylinders, but the BIG cylinders are firing and this is why large-caps are leading.
Weekend Video – Large-caps Lead, Bearish Continuation Pattern in IEF, Asian ETFs with Breakouts (Premium)
Stocks finished on a high note with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. Mid-caps, small-caps and micro-caps are still short of new highs and lagging large-caps overall. Treasury yields look poised to move higher, which means bonds look poised to move lower. Gold is very oversold, but still has a rather
Short and Long Term Yields Diverge, Junk Bonds Break Out, Water Holds Strong, MJ Tries to Bottom, Emerging Markets ETF Goes for Breakout (Premium)
Today’s commentary starts with Treasury yields by highlighting the divergence between short-term and long-term yields. We then look at the yield curve and its correlation with the Regional Bank ETF. Even though KRE has underperformed the last three months, it became quite oversold last week and got a bounce. We then turn to the breakout in the