Analysis Archives (>3 months old)
Weekend Video – Noose Tightens for Small-caps, Growth Perks Up, Mid-week Head Fakes, Metals and China (Premium)
After getting derailed with a curve ball on Tuesday, the bulls rebounded stocks ended the week on a high note. Again, a wide array of ETFs recorded fresh 52-week highs and there are plenty of strong groups in the stock market. This week we are seeing a possible return to growth, clean energy and China
Timing Models – Defensive Sectors Surge, SPY and QQQ Remain Extended, Bonds Bounce, New High for Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but some yellow flags are starting to appear. Yellow flags argue for some caution and are not outright bearish. For example, defensive sectors are leading, but the offensive sectors are still holding up, even though they are lagging. Small-caps are
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Defensives Lead, Small-caps Chop, Silver Breakout and MJ Setup (Premium)
The market turned mixed the last six to eight weeks with defensive and high-yielding ETFs leading. ETFs related to Healthcare, Utilities and REITs hit new highs this week and produced market leading moves since early March. Growth oriented ETFs
A Serious Deterioration in Small-cap Breadth Relative to Large-cap Breadth (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish and this means we are still in a bull market environment. Nevertheless, the odds for a correction are building and we are now seeing a dramatic move away from small-caps, which is reflected in some key breadth metrics. I will show a new twist on
Copper, All Things Electric and some Broad Market Thoughts (Premium)
I am always interested in themes that can drive secular trends. These include electronic payments, electric vehicles, clean energy, marijuana and such. These themes involve narratives and I am always careful with narratives. We all love a good story and stories help sell us
Base Metal ETF Gets the Squeeze (Free)
The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern after a Bollinger Band squeeze and this signals a continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead, IWM Cup Half Full, Metals Break Out, Emerging Markets ETFs Turns (Premium)
SPY hit yet another new high, nine sector SPDRs hit new highs and the breadth indicators show broad strength within this large-cap benchmark. QQQ also hit a new high as large-cap techs extended their rebound. Small-caps and small-cap growth remain the laggards, but their cups are still half full
Timing Models – Large-caps Extend Lead, Small-Caps Lag, Utes and REITs Lead, IWO hits Moment of truth (Premium)
Large-caps and large-cap techs ripped higher the last five-six weeks with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. The Technology SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR are leading the charge among the sectors with 13+ percent gains. Keep in mind that Amazon accounts for 23.5% of XLY and Tesla accounts for 14.45%. These two are not exactly pure plays in the
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals and Ag ETFs Break Out, High-Flyers Languish, RSI Bullish Failure Swings (Premium)
There is plenty of strength within the stock market and also a few pockets of weakness, or lackluster performance. SPY and QQQ hit new highs this week. This shows broad strength within the S&P 500 and large-cap tech stocks. There were new highs in ETFs related to finance, tech, industrials, materials, healthcare, housing, steel, REITs, semiconductors
Healthcare SPDR Looks Poised to Extend Uptrend (Free)
The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) formed two bullish continuation patterns within its long-term uptrend and recent breakouts bode well for further gains.
Weekend Video – QQQ Joins SPY with New High, Yield Spreads Narrow, Oil Hits Resistance and ETF Charts (Premium)
Equity-related ETFs continued strong this week with large-cap techs leading the way here in April. SPY also hit a new high, but small-caps are lagging as IWM stalls. Bank and energy related ETFs are also dragging their feet a little. Relative weakness is not a concern because IWM, KRE and XES
Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium)
There are plenty of strong pockets in the stock market with several cyclically oriented ETFs hitting new highs and large-cap techs coming back to life. This month we are seeing new highs in ETFs related to industrials, materials, housing, semiconductors, transports and steel. We are also seeing some big moves in ETFs dominated by large-cap tech. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a new high and I consider Amazon, its
Weekend Video – SPY Leads, QQQ Surges, Housing and Industrials Hit New High, HERO and COPX Break Out (Premium)
The S&P 500 hit a new all time high this week and large-cap techs perked up with QQQ surging. Small-caps are lagging, but IWM is not really bearish. The Composite Breadth Model remains firmly bullish with the short-term indicators for the S&P 500 outpacing those in the S&P 1500. Yield spreads narrowed further this week, while the Fed balance sheet contracted a little.
Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR