Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)
The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to
Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right
Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium)
Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on
Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium)
Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke
Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or
Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence is Bullish, Flags Forming After Breakouts, Key Short-term Support Levels to Watch (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the
Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat
Market/ETF Video – CBM Makes a Change, SPY and QQQ Challenge Resistance, Setups in Clean Energy, Solar and Transports (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence
Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge
Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)
This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples
Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move
Market/ETF Video – CBM Negative, %Above 200-day Split, Spreads Narrow, Metals Lead (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the breadth indicators show a split among stocks with roughly half above their 200-day SMAs and half below. The Fed balance
Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence Bearish, Large-caps Lagging, Precious Metals Leading (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on December 19th and remains negative as we start the new year. There are some pockets of strength within the S&P 500, but these are overshadowed by relative weakness in large-caps.
Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday and the Market Regime is back to bearish. 2022 was year of the whipsaw for the CBM, but whipsaw periods are normal for trend following models and part of the overall process. AAA spreads
Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium)
Despite some volatility around the CPI report, there is no real change in the market situation. The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The intermarket relationships since