Analysis Archives (premium content older than 3 months)

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Only three of the sixty ETFs in the core list advanced this week: AGG, TLT and LQD (bonds). Everything else declined, but the biotech ETFs (IBB and XBI) declined the least of the common stock ETFs. The banking and insurance ETFs (KRE, KBE, KIE) led the way lower with the banking ETFs hitting 52-week lows.

Studying Past Shocks for Clues on the Future

As technical analysts and chartists, we study historical prices and patterns to get an idea of what to expect going forward. No two patterns are exactly the same, but they often rhyme with a few common characteristics.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook Update ETF Chart Notes for Saturday, February 22nd * These chart notes are also in the ChartBook PDF file

Market Timing Models – Process and Signals versus Cautionary Tales

There are plenty of cautionary tales to go around, and yet the new high parade continued this week. This is why process, price action and signals are so important. I can find plenty of reasons for caution and these were highlighted over the last few weeks.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Stocks moved sharply higher for the second straight week with broad participation. RSP, SPY and QQQ recorded 52-week highs, 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs recorded new highs and 8 of the 11 equal-weight sector ETFs hit new highs.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Stocks are still looking overextended and ripe for a rest. SPY formed three outsized weekly candles, the tallest since the advance began, over the last five weeks. In addition, the weekly gain/loss was well above average for three of the last five weeks.

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Dead Cat Bounces or More?

My, that was quick. A few days ago, Friday January 31st, to be exact, the S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF were down year-to-date. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst weekly decline since late July (-2.14%) and the small-cap Russell fell 2.94%. In addition, seven of the twelve sector SPDRs were down year-to-date on January 31st

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

The stock market took a hit this week as money rotated into safe-have assets, such as bonds. Gold also moved higher and hit a 52-week high on Friday. It looks like a correction has started in the stock market as SPY confirmed its weekly harami and the short-term indicators trigger bearish.

Market Timing Models
Bears Fire a Shot as Risk Ratios Turn

The bears fired their first shot across the bow this week with sharp declines on Friday and Monday. The bulls were not in the mood to allow even a modest pullback and quickly stepped back into the market. Short-term, an oversold bounce after a 2.5% decline (Friday-Monday) is pretty normal stuff and does not change my overall thesis.

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Defensive Names Improve as Equity-Related ETFs Weaken

The defensive names further improved this week, while the number of ETFs showing real weakness expanded. ETFs related to bonds, precious metals (sans silver), utilities and REITs remain strong. We saw the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF, Aggregate Bond ETF and Gold SPDR extend further on their falling wedge breakouts. The Utilities SPDR is the leading sector here in January with a 6.24% gain.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

The market turned seriously defensive this week with bond ETFs, precious metals related ETFs, Utilities and REITs leading. We saw wedge breakouts in GLD and GDX around Christmas

Market Timing Models – Trend, Tape and Fed Maintain the Course

The S&P 500 SPDR is up 3% in three weeks (January) and trading near an all time high. Furthermore, the ETF is up 14.5% since August and 9.9% since October. These are big moves in relatively short timeframes, no matter how you slice it.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Once again, we are seeing broad strength in the Technology sector. Tech is not the only strong sector as three other sectors recorded hat tricks with new highs in the SPDR, the equal-weight sector ETF and small-cap sector ETF (Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Industrials).

Market Timing Models – Trend, Tape and Fed Maintain the Course

Stocks have been ripe for a rest or correction for weeks, and yet the current advance continues to broaden and buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. We already know that SPY and QQQ are hitting new highs and leading.

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