The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.

The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and

The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers.

Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half, but kept on throwing

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged from mid October to early December, but this advance was considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. In fact, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) reversed

The S&P 500 crossed its 200-day SMA for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this “signal” is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however

2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss.
Before looking at some trend-following stats,

Stocks surged this week with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day SMA. The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low

The S&P 500 moved to a new low from June to October, but copper held up better with a higher low and broke short-term resistance with an outsized move this week. A breakout with an outsized move shows above-average strength and it looks like the downtrend in copper is reversing.

The seasonal patterns for October and yearend are quite positive, but seasonality is just one aspect of broad market analysis and the weight of the evidence remains bearish.