Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market/ETF Video – CBM Makes a Change, SPY and QQQ Challenge Resistance, Setups in Clean Energy, Solar and Transports (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence
Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge
Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)
This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples
Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move
Market/ETF Video – CBM Negative, %Above 200-day Split, Spreads Narrow, Metals Lead (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the breadth indicators show a split among stocks with roughly half above their 200-day SMAs and half below. The Fed balance
Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence Bearish, Large-caps Lagging, Precious Metals Leading (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on December 19th and remains negative as we start the new year. There are some pockets of strength within the S&P 500, but these are overshadowed by relative weakness in large-caps.
Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday and the Market Regime is back to bearish. 2022 was year of the whipsaw for the CBM, but whipsaw periods are normal for trend following models and part of the overall process. AAA spreads
Market and ETF Report – 10yr Yield Breaks Out, Gold Holds Strong, Energy ETFs Get Oversold Bounce (Premium)
Today’s report will start with a stock market overview with analysis of the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and three key industry group ETFs (SOXX, XRT, ITB). Housing is holding up, but the other five broke down and the weight
Market and ETF Report – Big 3 Break Down, CBM Turns Negative, Correlations Rise with Break Down (Premium)
Today’s update starts with the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) because they broke down over the last few days and their breakdowns signal a continuation of the long-term downtrends. Moreover, the Composite Breadth Model turned
Market and ETF Report – ETFs to Watch for Clues on the Broader Market, Intermarket Relations at Work Now (Premium)
The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group
Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium)
Despite some volatility around the CPI report, there is no real change in the market situation. The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The intermarket relationships since
Market and ETF Report – Intermarket Relations Support Stocks, Key Groups to Watch, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The weight of the short-term evidence remains bullish for stocks. Even though SPX %Above 20-day SMA plunged below 60% to trigger bearish, SPY has yet to break support and the key intermarket relationships
Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward
Market and ETF Report – XLI Overbought, KRE Breaks Down, Watching Semis, Energy gets Oversold (Premium)
2022 is the year of big swings with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) capturing this phenomenon. Both ETFs surged some 20% in 34 days
Broad Market Assessment – Breadth, SPY, IWM, QQQ, Bonds, Yields, Dollar and Gold (Premium)
This is a broad market update because we have the Composite Breadth Model saying one thing and the price charts saying something else. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive a week ago
Market and ETF Report – Broad Advance Lifts CBM, Tech and Housing Break Out of Pennant, Metals Surge (Premium)
Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Some 95% of S&P 500 stocks were up, 96% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced and 93% of S&P 1500 stocks gained ground. Tech and high-beta ETFs, which were still the most beaten down, led the way with the biggest gains
Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months.
Market and ETF Report – SPY Challenges 200-day, 3 Key Groups to Watch, Healthcare and Water Leading (Premium)
The battles for the 200-day remain in focus for several ETFs. The S&P 500 and some key industry group ETFs surged towards their falling 200-day SMAs. Follow through would trigger a breakout and potential long-term trend reversal, while failure to follow through and short-term reversals
Market and ETF Report – Falling 200-day SMAs in Play, Dollar Becomes Very Oversold, Perspective on Gold and Silver (Premium)
The perfect storm hit the stock market over the past month and gave way to a sizable counter-trend bounce from mid October to mid November. The positive forces included oversold conditions in late September and early October, positive seasonal patterns
Market/ETF Video – 200-day SMAs Coming into Play, Big Sectors are Split, Oil Holds Support, Copper Challenges 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Even though SPY surged the last five weeks, the big picture items remain the same and I have yet to see enough strength to change these
Market and ETF Report – Macro Moves Dominate, SPY Stays Overbought, Biotechs and Water Lead, Oil Lags (Premium)
There were some big moves over the last three days as the markets reacted to lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Stocks have been moving higher since mid October with many ETFs sporting double digit gains the last five weeks. Many of these big moves
Market and ETF Report – Large-cap Techs Lead New Low List, ITB Forms Bearish Wedges, Metals Make some Big Moves (Premium)
The broad market environment remains bearish for stocks and not exactly bullish for stock alternatives. Most commodity, bond, currency and country ETFs are in downtrends. There are some isolated uptrends within these groups, but the vast majority of ETFs in the
Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce, Key Groups Leading Lower, Weak Dollar Spurs Rally in Metals (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Stocks bounced off their October lows, but this bounce is deemed a counter-trend bounce within a bigger uptrend and there are signs
Market and ETF Report – Elections and Seasonality, QQQ Weighs, IWM Leads, Energy Remains Strong, Copper Surges (Premium)
The Market Regime remains bearish, but there is a non-technical argument for a counter-trend bounce or perhaps a trading range in stocks. I say non-technical because this argument
Market and ETF Report – 90% Down Day, High Beta Sectors Lead Lower, Oil Bucks the Selling Pressure, Soybeans Pop (Premium)
Stocks answered the Fed policy statement with a big sell off on Wednesday afternoon. All eleven sectors were down with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the way lower by falling more than 3.5%. XLK represents tech, while XLY represents consumer spending,
Market/ETF Video – Bounce within Bear Market, New Trend Composite in Several ETFs, Trading Ranges equate to Relative Strength (Premium)
The S&P 500 is in the midst of a modest oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. Counter-trend bounces are part of the process and I have yet to see enough strength to suggest that
Market and ETF Report – Bouncers vs Leaders, SPY Remains Overbought, More Trend Composite Signals, Measuring Relative Performance (Premium)
Almost everything is bouncing, but not everything is leading. Stocks forged a massive one day reversal on October 13th as SPY opened around 349 and closed near 366 for a 2.6% gain on the day. The move from open to close was +4.8%. Stocks followed through on this reversal day with further
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market vs Seasonality and Up Swing, Getting Overbought, UUP Hits Support, Metals Bounce (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up around 7% the last two weeks and we are starting to see short-term overbought indications. Overbought, keep in mind, is a double-edged sword. Overbought suggests that the advance is getting over extended and the bigger downtrend could take over soon
Market/ETF Video – Breadth Becomes Overbought in Downtrend, Healthcare, Energy and Defense Lead, Ag and Industrial Metals Stall Out (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. SPY became quite oversold in late September and early October, and then turned choppy in October. The latest October swing is
Market and ETF Report – Volatility within a Downtrend, Energy Leads, Healthcare Holds Up Better, Defense Pops, Metals Sink with China (Premium)
It’s a bit of a mess out there, both fundamentally and technically. Technically, we have new lows in Chinese stock indexes after sharp declines on Monday, and the major US and European indexes are in downtrends. The major index ETFs here in the US became oversold in late September
Market and ETF Report – Firming within Downtrend, Economically Sensitive Lead Lower, Energy ETFs Outperforming, Metals Sink (Premium)
Stocks are attempting to firm here in October, but any firmness would be a consolidation within a bigger downtrend and any bounce would be considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend.
Market/ETF Video – Volatile Price Action with Downtrend, TLT Hits New Low, Only A Handful of Uptrends in the ETF Universe (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads remain elevated and the overall environment for stocks remains bearish. Price action in the major index ETFs turned choppy and volatile the last few weeks, but this is considered noise within a larger downtrend. September and October
Market and ETF Report – Bounce within Bigger Downtrend, A Few ETFs Showing Relative Strength, Energy ETFs Hit Moment of truth (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend, but in the midst of a oversold bounce, which started with the outside reversal day on Thursday. SPY started this bounce after a 52-week low so this is still considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. Stocks
Market and ETF Report – ETFs Showing Medium and Short Term Relative Strength (Less Weakness), A Look at Gold Miners Breadth (Premium)
Today’s report is a motley mix of ETFs. Only two are in actual uptrends (biotech and the Dollar). The Trend Composites for the clean energy ETFs turned negative on Wednesday so these are clearly out of the picture now. While many ETFs broke their summer lows in September and broke their late September lows in October, some held above both of these lows
Market/ETF Video – Macro Environment Dominates, Correlations Running High, Few Places to Hide (Premium)
The macro environment continues to dominate as stocks moved opposite the Dollar and Treasury bonds. The Dollar Bullish ETF and 10-yr Treasury Yield turned back up the last four days and the S&P 500 fell sharply. The long-term trend for all three
Market and ETF Report – Downtrend Overpowers 2-day Pop, Energy ETFs Hit Short-term Resistance, Wheat and Ag Hold Uptrends (Premium)
Stocks did the old pop and drop with the market surging Monday-Tuesday last week and then falling the next four days. Many ETFs moved to new lows, but some managed to hold above last week’s lows. Several tech and bond related ETFs hit fresh 52-week lows, which
Market and ETF Report – Perfect Storm for Oversold Bounce, Palladium Leads, Ag Holds On, Moment of truth for DB Energy… (Premium)
Stocks got a big oversold bounce the first two days of October, but I am treating it as a counter-trend move within a bigger downtrend and bear market. Adding fuel for the bulls, the Dollar
Market/ETF Video – Yields Spreads Continue to Widen, Oversold Bounces within Downtrends, A Handful of ETFs Bounce within Uptrends (Premium)
Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the
Market and ETF Report – Dollar and Yields Pullback, Stocks Bounce, From Oversold Setup to Short-term Momentum Pop (Premium)
The Dollar finally took a breather from its rapid ascent with a four day pullback and we also saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield fall from around 4% to 3.6%. The Dollar represents the risk-off trade so the pullback facilitated a bounce in
Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives
Market and ETF Report – Bear Expands Territory, Energy and Clean Energy Succumb, Ag Hit, Wheat and Palladium Hold Out (Premium)
The bears remain in control of the stock market and they are expanding their territory with breakdowns in energy, a clean energy and biotech. Stock-based ETFs are still part of the market and this became abundantly clear as all stock based ETFs in the ETF Master List fell over the last
Market and ETF Report – Broad Market Weighs, Uranium Pulls Back, Copper Firms, Palladium Grinds Higher and Silver Shines (Premium)
The Fed has come and gone, and the ugliness in the markets remains. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as SPY lost 1.79%. Bonds bounced with a sequence of sell-the-rumor (rate hike) and buy-the-news (actual hike). Sell short on the prospect of rate hikes and cover when the big
Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks
Market and ETF Report – Downtrends Dominate, Tech Leads Lower, Defensives not Immune, Clean Energy Holds Up (Premium)
Volatility remains above average in the markets and now we have a Fed meeting to contend with. There is only one thing to do when the Fed meets: turn off your news feed and wait a few days for the dust to settle. Knee jerk reactions are
Market and ETF Report – Stocks and Industrial Commodities Weaken, Uranium and Grains Hold Up (Premium)
This is one tough market, and I am not just talking about stocks. Non-stock alternatives usually emerge during bear markets, but we are seeing weakness in oil, copper, gold and “safe-haven” Treasury
Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Surges within Bigger Downtrends, Energy ETFs Hold Up, Clean Energy and Biotech Show Leadership (Premium)
Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces with and without the Force, Energy ETF Pullback, Palladium ETF Hits Moment of Truth (Premium)
After becoming very oversold on Tuesday, stocks bounced on Wednesday with the major index ETFs gaining around 2%. Today’s report will put these bounces into context. We will show the difference between bullish setups in harmony with the bigger force and
Market/ETF Video – CBM Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, SPY become Oversold within Downtrend, Very Selective with ETFs (Premium)
Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals
Market and ETF Report – Slim Pickings, SPY Become Oversold (but), Dirty-Clean Energy Lead, Metals are Weak (Premium)
The pickings within the stock market are slim and the pickings outside the stock market are also slim. There are far more downtrends out there than uptrends and this limits the choices for trend-following and those looking for pullbacks within uptrends. SPY and QQQ are