Analysis Archives (>3 months old)

A Relative Strength Clue for QQQ (Free)

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) represents the largest stocks in the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) covers the next 100 (101 to 200). Stocks at the top of the latter group are knocking on the door and

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium)

The market continues to be mixed and bullish. Techs and high-flying ETFs led the correction from the February highs to the March lows, but we are now seeing signs of short-term leadership in large-cap techs, namely QQQ and XLK. These two held well above their early March lows and broke out of flag patterns. Other tech-related ETFs and high-flyers are

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Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)

Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal

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Timing Models – IWM Joins the Correction Fray, QQQ Firms, Two Bullish Seasonal Patterns

The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)

The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.

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Growth ETFs, Heikin-Ashi and Asian ETFs Setting Up – IHI, FXI, ASHR, KWEB, CQQQ, EWY, EWJ, EWZ (Premium)

This commentary was originally posted on Wednesday, March 17th, in PDF format. Today I am replacing the PDF with chart images on a web page. Some of the text has been adjusted, but the commentary/charts are largely the same as on Wednesday. These charts cover the massive moves in tech-growth ETFs over the past year, the interest rate debate, Chinese ETFs firming in reversal zones and the Brazil ETFs surging off the 200-day.

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IBB: Still a Correction within a Bigger Uptrend (Free)

I wrote about the Biotech ETF (IBB) on February 28th as it pulled back from a new high. The pullback was viewed as a correction within the bigger uptrend, but the correction extended further than expected. At the time, I drew a falling wedge on the chart and marked resistance with the red line at 163.

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flags and Flag Breakouts Dominate the Landscape (Premium)

There are lots of flag breakouts here in March. Some triggered in early March, some last week, some this week and some are still working, which means price is still near the breakout zone. There were short flag/pennants that lasted a week or so (KRE), shallow flags (IJR), falling flags that lasted three weeks (SPY) and sharper falling flags that lasted four weeks (QQQ, IBB).

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Weekend Video and Chartbook – Flags and Zigzags, Big Week for XLP and XLU, Bullish Setups in 5 International ETFs (Premium)

Stocks perked up this week and we saw flag breakouts in several ETFs. Small-caps led the charge with IWM hitting a new high. QQQ even rebounded with a breakout, but is still lagging year-to-date. Strategically, the Composite Breadth Model remains in bull market mode. Tactically, the breakouts are holding and we will show how to monitor SPY and QQQ going forward. It was also a big week for Utilities and Consumer Staples,

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