Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward

Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months.

Market/ETF Video – 200-day SMAs Coming into Play, Big Sectors are Split, Oil Holds Support, Copper Challenges 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Even though SPY surged the last five weeks, the big picture items remain the same and I have yet to see enough strength to change these

Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce, Key Groups Leading Lower, Weak Dollar Spurs Rally in Metals (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Stocks bounced off their October lows, but this bounce is deemed a counter-trend bounce within a bigger uptrend and there are signs

Market/ETF Video – Bounce within Bear Market, New Trend Composite in Several ETFs, Trading Ranges equate to Relative Strength (Premium)
The S&P 500 is in the midst of a modest oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. Counter-trend bounces are part of the process and I have yet to see enough strength to suggest that

Market/ETF Video – Breadth Becomes Overbought in Downtrend, Healthcare, Energy and Defense Lead, Ag and Industrial Metals Stall Out (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. SPY became quite oversold in late September and early October, and then turned choppy in October. The latest October swing is

Market/ETF Video – Volatile Price Action with Downtrend, TLT Hits New Low, Only A Handful of Uptrends in the ETF Universe (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads remain elevated and the overall environment for stocks remains bearish. Price action in the major index ETFs turned choppy and volatile the last few weeks, but this is considered noise within a larger downtrend. September and October

Market/ETF Video – Macro Environment Dominates, Correlations Running High, Few Places to Hide (Premium)
The macro environment continues to dominate as stocks moved opposite the Dollar and Treasury bonds. The Dollar Bullish ETF and 10-yr Treasury Yield turned back up the last four days and the S&P 500 fell sharply. The long-term trend for all three

Market/ETF Video – Yields Spreads Continue to Widen, Oversold Bounces within Downtrends, A Handful of ETFs Bounce within Uptrends (Premium)
Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the

Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives

Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks

Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are

Market/ETF Video – CBM Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, SPY become Oversold within Downtrend, Very Selective with ETFs (Premium)
Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals

Market/ETF Video – Declines from Falling 200-day SMAs Extend, Correlations Rise as Participation Broadens, Ag and Uranium Buck the Selling (Premium)
Stocks moved sharply lower the last two weeks with ten of the eleven sector SPDRs declining and almost all industry group ETFs falling. Energy-related ETFs and the Uranium ETF were exceptions. The long-term trend for

Market/ETF Video – Numerous Failures at the Falling 200-day SMA, Oil and Energy ETFs Buck the Stock Market, Ag ETFs Pop (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model hit its moment of truth and failed to turn bullish as stocks moved sharply lower the last five days. Correlations rose as the vast majority of stock-based ETFs declined. Only energy-based