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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

SPY hit a new high for the week and gained 1.02%, which is not considered an outsized advance for one week. The weekly gain exceeded 2% twice in January 2018 and these were outsized advances.

Market Timing Models – To Infinity and Beyond

Stocks turned a bit mixed the last two weeks, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish, both long-term and short-term. Looking at the five biggest equal-weight sectors, we saw new highs in the EW Technology ETF (RYT), EW Industrials ETF (RGI) and EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) this week. Technology led in 2019 and continues to lead in 2020.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

There were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IJR (small-caps) hit new highs. Five of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while just two equal-weight sectors hit new highs.

Market Timing Models – Short-term Test Awaits as Noise Levels Increase

It’s just the second trading day of 2020 and already the markets are setting up for a test. Stock futures are sharply lower as the S&P 500 looks set to open down around 1%. Gold, the Dollar and Treasury bonds are sharply higher as money looks for alternatives. A sharp decline in the S&P 500 could reverse the short-term uptrend and herald the much awaited correction.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Consumer Discretionary and Precious Metals Come to Life

The strong continue to strengthen and the laggards are leading short-term. Overall, this suggest that the bull market continues to broaden and pick up more converts. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Technology SPDR were leading all year and they simply extended their leads with fresh new highs this week. The energy-related ETFs were lagging all year and then surged over the last five weeks.

Market Timing Models – S&P 500 is Extended, but not Yet Frothy

There is not much change in the broad market picture. The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high again this week and extended its uptrend. The long-term trend has been up since February and SPY has been on a tear since early October. Barring a 2.22 point decline today (Friday), the S&P 500 SPDR is set to close higher for 11 of the last 12 weeks. It is an extraordinary run (+9.71% since early October), and shows no signs of slowing.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

As you can see from the lists above, there were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IWM (small-caps) hit new highs. Six of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while seven equal-weight sectors hit new highs.

Long-term Stock Setups with some Themes to Consider for 2020

Today’s setups feature long-term charts and some big trends to watch as we head into 2020. I am also noting themes on some of the charts. In particular, the Amazon theme is AWS, cloud and its growing delivery business, which is expected to be bigger than UPS or FDX by 2022.

Market Timing Models – History does not Repeat itself, but it Often Rhymes.

Today’s report will focus on the S&P 500, the current advance and a future scenario. I am focused on the S&P 500, and SPY by extension, because this index is the driving force in the stock market. It accounts for some 80% of the US equity market and is the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks. Small-caps and mid-caps are more likely to follow the S&P 500, not the other way around.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Leaders Extend Gains as ETFs in Downtrend Get Big Bounces

Strength in the US stock market is broad-based with 25 of the 46 (53%) equity-related ETFs hitting new highs over the last five days (including EFA). Of the 21 ETFs that did not hit new highs, several led the stock market over the last two weeks with big counter-trend bounces. Four energy-related ETFs were up double digits the last 11 days and XLE (+5.83%) is the leading sector over this time period.

Weekend Video and ChartBook

This week’s video will cover the 60 core ETFs and the short-term trend for SPY. There were 21 new highs in our core list and this shows broad strength in the stock market.

Market Timing Models – Bull Market Continues to Broaden with More Sectors and Stocks Leading

The major index ETFs extended their breakouts as the bullish forces, which were highlighted last week, dominate heading into year end. Three of three technical forces remain bullish. Two of the three “other” forces turned from rumor to news this week.
Even though I mentioned these fundamental forces last week, the technical forces are what really drive my market stance.

Weekend Video and ChartBook

This week’s video will cover the 60 core ETFs, the short-term trend for SPY and some events that could shake the market in the coming weeks. There were more new highs, a materials-related ETF broke out, gold failed and bonds backed off resistance.

Weekend Video and ChartBook

This post features the weekend video that walks you through the the 60 ETFs in the core chart list. I also example on the daily S&P 500 chart and the indicators used to define the short-term uptrend.

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