Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Transition Phase, Banks and Energy Lead, EVs and Copper Hold Breakouts, URA Firms at Key Retracement (Premium)

The transition process is difficult and the markets are undergoing a transition from a covid-driven economy to a normal economy. A covid economy implies Fed easing, fiscal stimulus and falling Treasury yields. A normal economy means no more balance sheet expansion, no more fiscal stimulus and a normalization of Treasury yields.

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Weekend Video – Defensive ETFs Lead, Banks and Energy Extend on Breakout, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out, Tech ETFs Break Prior Lows (Premium)

The stock market is as mixed as it ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighed SPY and QQQ.

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TLT Forms a Big Wedge, GLD goes for Breakout, Dollar Stalls after Becoming Overbought (Premium)

This commentary will cover bonds, gold, silver and the Dollar. Oil was covered in the ETF Report on Wednesday. TLT and the 10-yr Yield have big continuation patterns working, but the swings within these patterns are going the other way. Gold is going for a breakout as silver surges off support. The Dollar became overbought after a big advance and stalled the last few weeks.

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Weekend Video – Broad Market is Bullish, Despite Concerns, Gold Sets Up, XLV and XLB Reverse after Pullbacks (Premium)

Stocks started their rebound with 1-day breadth thrusts on December 2nd and continued higher this week. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead overall, while small-caps and next gen Nasdaq 100 stocks are lagging. After a big move last Tuesday, many of the high beta and momentum names fell back on Thursday and Friday. This pop and drop sets

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