Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Chart Trader – Education
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. In addition, the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA to reverse the bearish trend signal from mid March. The V-Reversal since late March was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but the 5/200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal
Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. With the recent gains, SPY is back near the 200-day SMA and 61.8% retracement, which puts this key benchmark at an “interesting” juncture. Interesting? Yes. Bull market? No. What does it take to go from an interesting juncture to a bull market?
The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an
Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. There are two parts to the V reversal. First, there is the V, which is the plunge and the rebound. Second, there is the breakout move that completes the reversal. SPY fulfilled the V part, but
Besides the Zweig Breadth Thrust, chartists can identify bullish thrusts using short-term breadth indicators, such as the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 day SMAs (simple moving averages). Breadth thrust signals reflect a sharp turnaround in participation that can foreshadow an extended uptrend. Thrust signals start with a setup that shows very few stocks
Developed by the late great Marty Zweig, the Zweig Breadth Thrust uses advance-decline data to identify material shifts in participation. This indicator sets up with when the advance-decline data becomes oversold and triggers when there is a sharp broadening in upside participation (advancing stocks). It is a time sensitive indicator that must trigger within a 10 day window.
This report will show how to find bullish setup zones for trading pullbacks within the bigger uptrend. This is trading in the direction of the bigger uptrend. We are only focused on uptrends and bullish setups. In addition, there are two requirements: the broad market trend must be up and the stock must be
This page is for subscribers to Chart Trader. It starts with a chart showing the Composite Breadth Model and signals over the last few years. This model defines the environment for stocks: bull market or bear market. We then explain the methodology behind the model with indicator examples and charts.
This report/video covers eight trend-following indicators: BBands, Keltner Channels, Donchian Channels, StochClose, %Difference betw SMAs, ROC of SMA, CCI-Close and eSlope. We show how to reduce whipsaws with smoothing and signal thresholds. Each indicator is explained with chart examples. These samples include good trades and bad trades because whipsaws are guaranteed.
Breadth indicators are also referred to as market internals. As the “vital signs” for an index or sector, breadth indicators reflect aggregate performance for the individual components. As such, breadth indicators can provide leading signals by strengthening before a bottom or weakening ahead of a top. After all, the whole is only as good as the sum of the parts
Today’s report will show two more examples using the Momentum Composite and StochRSI. The Momentum Composite identifies oversold conditions and StochRSI signals a subsequent
A charting strategy is essential because it increases objectivity and improves the odds of success. A basic chart strategy is similar to basic black jack strategy. In his classic book, Beat the Dealer, Edward Thorp, lays out a basic black jack strategy with a set of rules to improve the odds. Once players master basic strategy, they can move on to card counting and such to further improve performance.
This is the first article in a new strategy series that will extend over the next several weeks. We will start by defining the Trend Composite indicator and then work our way towards a systematic trading strategy. The strategy is based on signals from the Trend Composite.
In an ideal world, trends would be consistent and persist for months. An ideal uptrend would march higher by consistently recording higher highs and higher lows. Once reversed, a downtrend would take over and work its way lower with lower lows and lower highs. There are plenty of chart examples for these consistence and persistent trends.
The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern that chartists can use to trade or invest in the direction of the underlying trend. I realized that some books show falling wedges as bullish reversal patterns, but I am only interested in bullish continuation patterns and I choose to ignore names that are hitting new lows. This video will show
This page explains the System Trader offering at TrendInvestorPro. We cover the strategy reports, signal pages, articles page, publishing schedule and tools of the trade.
This page explains the Chart Trader offering at TrendInvestorPro. We cover the publishing schedule, navigation links, our philosophy and the tools of the trade.
Dividends may seem like harmless add-ons when it comes to price data, but they can have big effects over time. The biggest problem is that dividend adjustments create artificial prices that do not reflect reality at the time of the actual trade. There are also short-term problems as moving average values, price highs and price lows also shift after an adjustment.
There are two things to consider for ETF liquidity. First, there is the actual trading volume for the ETF. Second, there is the trading volume for the holdings in the ETF. Hat-tip to Joe H. for enlightening me on this aspect. An ETF with relatively low trading volume can
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.