Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Weekend Video – SPY Attempts to Reverse Pullback, Banks, Insurance and Energy Lead, Rising Rates Weigh (Premium)
Stocks surged on Thursday with SPY and QQQ gapping higher in an attempt to end their pullbacks. The gaps-surges are largely holding, but breadth was lackluster and techs fell back on Friday. Rising Treasury yields are influencing current market dynamics. This creates a headwind for

SPY Goes for Breakout, Breadth Underwhelms, IJR Challenges Triangle Line, Oil and Dollar Remain Strong (Premium)
The S&P 500 and broad market indexes popped on Wednesday-Thursday. We also saw short-term breakouts in a number of ETFs. Are these breakouts enough to end the corrective period that began with the September decline? Or, is this just a short-term head fake that will

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech ETFs Firm with Harami, Some Laggards are Showing Short-term Strength (Premium)
There are plenty of ETFs with corrections or downtrends the last few months, but some of these are showing short-term relative strength. Similarly, several tech-related ETFs firmed with hamari on Monday-Tuesday and closed strong on Wednesday.

Weekend Video – A 5% Pullback, Rotations within the Stock Market, Watching for the Next Breadth Signal (Premium)
Large-caps finally pulled back with the S&P 500 SPDR falling around 5% in September. Small-caps held up better with a smaller decline. Overall, there was a rotation underway in September as money moved into banks, energy, airlines and defense.

SPY Ends its Streak, Fed Balance Sheet Contracts, Oil Leads, Bonds Break, Gold Pops (Premium)
The streak finally ended as the S&P 500 fell more than 5%. Using SPY as the proxy, the ETF had gone some 227 days without a pullback of more than 5% (closing prices). The 5.31% decline here in September is the largest since October 2020. SPY fell around 10% in September

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Surge in Yields Drives Rotations, Techs Suffer, Banks Benefit, Energy ETFs Break Out (Premium)
There are some new trend signals over the last five days. The Bank SPDR (KBE) and Regional Bank ETF (KRE) followed through on last week’s surges and StochClose moved above 60 to turn bullish. Also notice that the 52wk Range

Signs of Rotation Again, Corrections Targets for XLK/XLC, StochClose Signals vs Price Action for Some High-Beta ETFs (Premium)
Signs of a market rotation began to appear last week as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged, the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF plunged and the Regional Bank ETF advanced over 3%. Techs and high-flyers held up relatively well last week, but got pummeled on Tuesday with many falling more than 3%.

Zweig Breadth Thrust Hits Lowest Level since May – What Does it Mean? (Premium)
As its name implies, the Zweig Breadth Thrust quantifies bullish breadth thrusts using a setup level and a signal level. The setup occurs when the 10-day EMA of Advances / (Advances + Declines) dips below .40 and the bullish signal triggers

Weekend Video – SPY Recovers after Gap, But Downtrends Expand, Bonds Throw Tantrum, Banks Surge (Premium)
Stocks were hit hard on Monday-Tuesday with dozens of ETFs becoming oversold, including SPY. These oversold conditions gave way to a strong rebound the rest of the week with Finance and Energy leading the way. Bonds threw a small tantrum after the Fed meeting as the

Breadth Pops along with the 10-yr Treasury Yield, Banks Respond, Gold Extends Downtrend, Oil Holds Breakout (Premium)
The Fed has yet to actually start tapering, but dropped some hints that it would if the economy continues to strengthen. The bond market, which tends to lead the Fed, reacted violently as the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF fell over 2% and the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke above

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Downtrend Signals Expand and Hit Key Groups, Tech ETFs Hold Up Relatively Well (Premium)
After a dozen new uptrend signals in late August and early September, the tide changed as the S&P 500 experienced its first 4-5 percent pullback since May. This pullback was enough to reverse some of the new uptrend signals and there were 14 new downtrend signals over the last five days. I am referring only to the 113 equity-related ETFs

A Pullback or More for SPY?, Checking on Recent Trend Signals, Current Mean-Reversion Setups (Premium)
The Market Regime remains bullish and the S&P 500 is just 4% below its recent high, but breadth has been waning for months and many groups are already in corrective mode. The 4% decline

Weekend Video – SPY Pulls back as %Above 200-day Dips, Fed Balance Sheet Surges, IWM Flags and Four ETFs Setting Up (Premium)
The market regime remains bullish, but breadth continues to wane and more breakouts are failing. Overall, ETFs related to tech, healthcare, communication services and REITs are leading, while ETFs related to industrials, materials and housing are lagging because their breakouts failed to hold. I am also watching TLT and the Dollar because

Breadth Wanes, Small-caps Stall, Bearish Sentiment Surges, Bonds and Oil Break Out, Gold Plunges (Premium)
The stock market remains in a funk. Large-caps finally pulled back with the S&P 500 loosing a whopping 2% from high to low (Sept 2 to 14). SPY remains is a clear uptrend with a rising channel and QQQ has not touched its 50-day SMA since June 3rd. Things are different outside of the S&P 500 because

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Semis in Top 5, Pullbacks Create Mild Oversold Conditions, A Few Failed Breakouts (Premium)
The broad market environment remains bullish for stocks and the vast majority of equity related ETFs are in uptrends (bullish StochClose signals). Even so, I remain concerned with the broader market environment because breadth continues to deteriorate and a number of ETFs peaked months ago. The Russell 2000