Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market and ETF Report – A Sea of Red, Energy ETFs Tests Support, Healthcare/Biotech Show Relative Strength (Premium)
My screen for today’s price action is a sea of red right now. Stock futures are modestly lower, energy futures are lower, gold is slightly lower, industrial metals are sharply lower and agricultural commodities are sharply lower. The US Dollar Index is the only thing higher and it is trading at a new high
Market and ETF Report – Two Trends and Two Conditions, Best versus Worst, XLE is the Most Volatile Sector, GOLD has Low Volatility, but….(Premium)
Today’s report to put trend and volatility together so we can identify the best conditions, the worst conditions and the questionable conditions. Most of us know that current conditions are the worst for stocks because we are in a bear market with high volatility. We will chart volatility to show when it is deemed high and
Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness, Oil Holds Up as NatGas Hits Support-Reversal Zone, Dollar Remains Strong, Industrial Metals Sink (Premium)
Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the
Market and ETF Report – Counter-Trend Bounce in SPY, Oil Hits Reversal Zone, XES Overshoots, Wheat Weights on Agriculture ETF (Premium)
Stocks bounced the last five days, but these bounces are considered counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. One of these counter-trend moves will result in a trend reversal, but this is not the case yet because the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. The first indicator window below shows
Market and ETF Report – A Brutal Year and Month, Three ETFs Stand Out, Short-term Island Reversal Takes Hold (Premium)
As noted in Tuesday’s report and in Wednesday’s video, the majority of ETFs in the Master List (274) are in downtrends. There are a few groups holding up, but even energy and agriculture were hit with selling pressure here in June. Mr Market is dazed, confused
Market/ETF Video – Stocks are Oversold within Strong Downtrends, Downside Participation is High, Ag, Energy and Dollar are Standouts (Premium)
The major index ETFs and big sector SPDRs extended their downtrends and recorded fresh 52-week lows over the last few days. New lows were also seen in most tech and consumer discretionary ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model reflects the broadness of downside participation and widening yield
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market and Oversold, Energy ETF Get Hit, Ag ETFs Hold UP, 3 with Relative Chart Strength (Premium)
There are a lot of downtrends out there and not just stock-based ETFs. The vast majority of stock-based ETFs are in downtrends with Trend Composite values in negative territory. ETFs related to industrial metals, precious metals, bonds and non-Dollar currencies are also in downtrends
Market and ETF Report – Dow Theory and Elliott Wave for Bear Markets, Two Breadth Indicators Have yet to Reach Extremes (Premium)
Today’s commentary will dive into Dow Theory and show some overlap with Elliott Wave. We will show the phase/wave counts for the last bear market and then make an attempt to label the current
Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Broadens as %Above 200-day Sinks and New Lows Surge, Energy and Agriculture are Last Groups Standing (Premium)
The major index ETFs extended their downtrends with a vengeance over the last five trading days. It was a most exceptional period because almost everything declined the last five days – and I do mean everything. 52-week lows expanded
Market and ETF Report – Nowhere to Hide, Short-term Oversold in Bear Market, Oil and Ag Still in Uptrends (Premium)
It was a “sell everything” moment the last four days as stocks, bonds, commodities and non-Dollar currencies declined. The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) rose 2.82% the last four days and the Corn ETF (CORN) was up .46%. Those are the only two ETFs
Market and ETF Report – SPY Near Reversal Zone, XLU Holds Up, XLP Gets Counter-Trend Bounce, Home Construction Shows Relative Strength (Premium)
Small-caps are outperforming large-caps over the last one to two weeks because large-caps stalled and small-caps continued higher. Even so, I am not following the siren song of small-cap relative strength and am more concerned with short-term relative weakness in
Market/ETF Video – %Above 200-day, New Highs vs Lows, Gold and Copper Hold Breakouts, Materials and Defense ETFs Surge, Ag and Wheat Are Setting Up (Premium)
The major index ETFs are in the midst of a bounce, but this bounce is still considered a bear market bounce. The bigger trends are still down for SPY and QQQ, the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yield spreads are elevated. Despite bullish breadth thrusts in late May, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs
Market and ETF Report – Energy and Ag with Consistent Uptrends, Some Stock-Based ETFs Holding Up Better, Watching Breakouts in Metals ETFs (Premium)
Today’s report will start with the Composite Breadth Model and some words on the Market Regime because this is the dominant force at work for stocks and stock-based ETFs. Some stock-based ETFs are featured in this report because they are either in uptrends on the price chart, have positive Trend Composites or held their January-March lows (did not break down).
Market and ETF Report – TLT Turns Down Again, Dollar Breaks Out, Gold Firms after Breakout, Platinum Show Relative Strength (Premium)
Today’s report starts with bonds, the Dollar and gold. I am not, however, going to tie moves in one asset to movements in another. There are some relationships at work, but relations and correlations change and sometimes do not work out as expected. Instead, I will simply analyze
Market/ETF Video – Bounces within Bigger Downtrends for SPY and Five Big Sectors, Choosing what to Focus on and What to Ignore (Premium)
The major index ETFs got big bounces last week, but these are still oversold bounces within bigger downtrends and within the context of a bear market. Despite some breadth thrusts, the Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and yield spreads remain very elevated. Gold is struggling to hold its breakout as the Dollar and