Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Weekend Video – Breadth Continues to Wane, Lower Highs in Some Key ETFs, A Safe-haven ETF with a Bull Flag (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell five days in a row for the first time since October 2020, scene of the last decent correction in the stock market. Signs of a correction continue to build as breadth wanes and key metrics hit their lowest levels since last year. We are also seeing corrections or downtrends

Trend-Signals: Take Right Away or Wait for a Pullback? (Premium)
The list of ETFs with uptrend signals over the last three weeks reads line the who’s who of the high flyers. This list includes the Video Games eSports ETF (ESPO), the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the Clean Energy ETF (QCLN)

Breadth Wanes as Corrections Unfold, SPY Remains Immune, TLT Flies the Bull Flag, GLD hits Moment of truth (Premium)
Timing a correction in the S&P 500 has been a fool’s errand since the November surge and breakout. The index brushed off negative seasonality in February and August. Techs and high flyers declined from mid February to mid May, but the S&P 500 kept right on trucking as money rotated

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Uptrends and Extended, Oversold vs OVERSOLD, ETFs with Lower Highs Underperforming (Premium)
Of the 113 ETFs in the Core List, 79 are in uptrends (70%) and 34 are in downtrends (30%). This is more than enough to support a bull market in stocks. Six of the seven major index ETFs are in uptrends (SPY, RSP, MDY, IJR, IWM , QQQ) and one

Weekend Video – Analyzing and Quantifying New Trend Signals, Old School ETFs Hold Breaks as September Looms (Premium)
SPY continues on its stairway to higher prices with another new high this week. We are also seeing strength in mid-caps as MDY holds its breakout and new trend signals in small-caps (IJR and IWM). Breadth is not as strong as it used to be, but strong enough to support a bull market. Yield spreads show no signs of stress and the

Breadth Stays Strong, TLT Flags, Gold Breaks a Wedge Line, Dollar Backs off Resistance, Oil Challenges Channel (Premium)
Breadth remains bullish overall. Some 80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and High-Low Percent expanded to +17.82% this week. This means

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – New Trend Signals, RSI(14) versus the Momentum Composite, Failed Breakouts Lead to Bigger Consolidations (Premium)
There were several new uptrend signals this past week and these signals suggest a stronger risk appetite in the stock market. Today’s report will review the StochClose indicator and some of these new trend-following signals. We will also show these signals on the revamped Ranking and Trend Table. Today’s charts also

Weekend Video – Large/Small Divide, Successful Breakouts vs Failed Breakouts (Premium)
Large-caps are doing it again with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting new highs. The small and micro-cap ETFs bounced, but this bounce may be too late as they already triggered downtrend signals. Overall, there are

Breadth is Just Bullish Enough, TLT Flags, Oil Bounces within Correction, Dollar Hits Resistance (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish, which means the market regime is bullish. Breadth is not as strong as it was in April, but this has yet to affect the S&P 500. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 100-day SMAs in April and now

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Choppy Affair, More Uptrends than Downtrends, Breakouts Holding and Failing (Premium)
Chop is the name of the game for a large part of the market. Some ETFs are grinding higher with tight and steady uptrends (SPY, XLC) and some are in more volatile uptrends (QQQ, IHI). Several of these are quite extended too. We saw a number of

Weekend Video – Large-caps Continue to Lead, TLT Perks Up, Some Breakouts Holding and Some are Failing (Premium)
Large-caps remain in bull mode with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF leading. Small-caps and micro-caps tell another story with downtrend signals based on StochClose. We have yet to see a flight to safety that could trigger a correction in SPY, but I am watching TLT as it forms a bull

Bonds Threaten to Derail Rotation, Dollar Goes for Breakout, Oil Tests Support Zone (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish, which means the market regime is bullish. However, we are seeing more deterioration under the surface and also some

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Large-cap Breadth, StochClose Downtrends, Failing Breakouts, Extended Uptrends (Premium)
ETF Ranking, Signals and Setups Table Watch out for rising correlation in the stock market. Selling pressure was concentrated in large-caps on Wednesday as S&P

Junk Bond Spreads Widen, Small and Micro Caps Underperform, Energy Related ETFs Fail to Bounce (Premium)
Today’s commentary will look at the recent widening in Junk bond spreads because this widening shows less confidence in corporate bonds with the highest risk. We are also seeing some risk aversion in the stock market because small-caps are lagging large-caps. Small-caps represent higher

Weekend Video – Stock/Bond Seasonality, Staples and Utes Lead, Old Economy ETFs Break Out (Premium)
The stock market remains in bull mode overall with some 84% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. Recent breakouts in equal-weights and mid-caps bode well, but short-term bearish patterns in small-caps