Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces within Bigger Uptrends, The Real Leaders, Chart Strength by Holding Jan-Feb Lows (Premium)
There was a big oversold bounce with some of the most beaten down ETFs leading the way. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) and Home Construction ETF (ITB) were up over 10% in three days.
Palladium: A Trend Changing Event or Correction Overshoot? – Plus another Commodity ETF with a Wedge Correction (Premium)
There are two commodity ETFs with falling wedge patterns working. One falling wedge resulted in a deep pullback and the other in a shallow pullback. Either way, I view these falling wedges as corrections within uptrends and am watching for breakouts. This article will look at the deep pullback in the
Market and ETF Report – Working with Benchmark Lows, Setting Levels that Prove Breakouts Wrong, Using the ATR Trailing Stop (Premium)
The market regime is bearish, but SPY and QQQ are still in oversold territory that could give way to a bounce. In addition, we are seeing short-term strength in some of the high-beta ETFs as Treasury yields fell over the last two weeks. Personally, I am not
Market/ETF Video – Oversold in a Bear Market and Long-term Downtrend, Slim Pickings in Stock-Based ETFs, Metals Come Alive (Premium)
Stocks remain short-term oversold and the major index ETFs are still near their May lows. This could give way to a bounce, but the bear market and long-term downtrends continue to provide stiff headwinds. There
Market and ETF Report – Energy and Ag Still Leading, Utilities Hit Moment of truth, Metals-Related ETFs Make a Move (Premium)
The market regime remains bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yields spreads are showing stress in the credit markets. Note that the BBB spread exceeded its March high over the last few days. Short-term, stocks are still quite oversold after a big decline from mid April to early May. Oversold
Market and ETF Report – Bearish Outcomes, Trend Composite All Weather Update, Consumer Staples Breakdown (Premium)
Bearish outcomes are more likely in a bear market and this is playing out as even the defensive groups were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday. We are also seeing this play out in certain commodities, such as industrial metals. Industrial metals
Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce, Yield Spreads Surge, Energy and Ag Lead, Safe-Haven Stock Groups Hold Up Best (Premium)
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after strong selling pressure and sharp declines. We are seeing an oversold bounce right now, but this is considered a bear market bounce because the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish and yield spreads show serious stress in the credit markets.
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium)
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after a sharp five day decline that looked like a selling climax. This five day decline was already on top of a sharp decline from April 21st to 27th (-8.5%). All told, there was
Market and ETF Report – Falling Knives, Sinking and not Yet Stinking, Defensive ETFs Holding Up Better (Premium)
Stocks remain under pressure and failed to bounce after becoming quite oversold after a three-day decline on Tuesday. This decline continued with many stocks and ETFs becoming even more
Market/ETF Video – Selling Pressure Continues to Broaden, Short-term Bearish Extremes, Ag and Energy Lead (Premium)
The bear market widened its grip on stocks as more participated in the decline over the last few weeks. New lows expanded dramatically the last two weeks and more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Safe-haven groups were also hit as utilities and consumer staples fell. The safe-haven groups are
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium)
The ugly just got uglier. The Composite Breadth Model turned bearish on April 11th and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day SMA that same day. At worst
Market and ETF Report – Volatility Remains High, Techs Continue to Lead Low, Some Commodity ETFs Setting Up (Premium)
Market volatility was also high and seemed to get even higher the last two weeks. Moreover, volatility and selling pressure are not just in the stock market. We saw selling pressure in almost all groups over the last five
Market and ETF Report – Stocks Short-term Oversold, Oil and Ag Commodities Hold Up, Industrials Metals Hit (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and we are in a bear market environment for stocks. Oil and agricultural commodities remain relatively strong, but industrial metals were hit pretty hard the last two weeks. Downside participation
Market/ETF Video – Downside Participation Broadens, Industrial Commodities Hit, Oil and Ag Remain Strong (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and participation to the downside expanded significantly over the last six trading days. Even the low volatility leaders were hit hard and there were few places to hide as correlations rose among stocks. Bonds managed to firm, but do not offer an alternative to stocks
Market and ETF Report – Staying with a Narrow Focus, Leaders Firming and Bounces after Sharp Pullbacks (Premium)
The Market Regime is bearish and this means there is a headwind for stock-related ETFs. At the very least, we should be extremely selective and reduce exposure to stocks. Even though we will still have sharp oversold bounces,