Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Market/ETF Video – Composite Breadth Model hits Make or Break Point, Bonds Break Down, More Sectors in Downtrends than Uptrends  (Premium)

The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought

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Market/ETF Video – Resistance Reversal Zones are Nigh, Oils Tests Support, TLT Forms Bearish Pattern, Working with ATR Trailing Stops (Premium)

Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads

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Market and ETF Report – Two Trends and Two Conditions, Best versus Worst, XLE is the Most Volatile Sector, GOLD has Low Volatility, but….(Premium)

Today’s report to put trend and volatility together so we can identify the best conditions, the worst conditions and the questionable conditions. Most of us know that current conditions are the worst for stocks because we are in a bear market with high volatility. We will chart volatility to show when it is deemed high and

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Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness, Oil Holds Up as NatGas Hits Support-Reversal Zone, Dollar Remains Strong, Industrial Metals Sink (Premium)

Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the

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