Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Oversold Bounces and Gap Galore, Banks and the Yield Curve, QQQJ Channels Feb-Mar (Premium)
Stocks went from the edge of the abyss last week to a renewed bull market this week. Well, perhaps not so fast there cowboy. The price action over the last few days is certainly bullish because SPY broke out with a three day move accompanied by

Oversold Conditions and Bearish Sentiment Trigger Bounce, Breadth Issues Remain, Tech and REITs Leading (Premium)
The market went through the wringer the last two weeks and the bulls appear to have survived. Today’s analysis looks at the oversold setup and the strength behind the recent bounce. Even though the Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish, there are still reasons for concern and we will cover these.

Weekend Video – Small and Mid Caps Weigh, TLT Breaks Out, High-Bete ETFs Break Down, Oil Gets Interesting (Premium)
Mid-caps, small-caps and high-beta stocks are weighing on the broader market, but SPY, QQQ and some large-caps are holding up. We are also seeing a shift away from risk in the bond market as the Junk Bond ETF (JNK) hit a 52-week low

Composite Breadth Model Takes a Turn, S&P 500 Breadth Deteriorates Further, Bond Spreads Widen to Multi-month Highs (Premium)
Weakness in mid-caps and small-caps is finally taking its toll on the broader market and the Composite Breadth Model. We are also seeing S&P 500 breadth indicators deteriorate and dip towards bearish levels. Even though

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – SPY Becomes Oversold, Copper ETFs Return to Breakout Zones, IBB Sets Up with Wedge (Premium)
Stocks were hit with a double whammy the last three trading days: the Omicron plunge on Black Friday and the Powell plunge on Tuesday. These, at least, seem to be the reasons given in the financial media. SPY fell 2.2% on Friday, rebounded somewhat on Monday and then fell 2% on Tuesday

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Three Tech ETFs Set Up, Clean Energy ETFs Pull Back after Breakouts, Banks Fall with 10yr Yield (Premium)
I used to have a Friday night poker group and this was the motto when someone needed to call a big bet. Go big or fold. For the stock market, large-caps are the name of the game and technology is still the best performing sector

Measuring Oversold Conditions, TLT Forms Bullish Pattern, DBE and Stop-loss Strategies (Premium)
Big and sudden declines create short-term oversold conditions ripe for a short bounce, but they also distort chart patterns with their volatility. These outsized moves make chart analysis difficult and the volatility increases risk overall. Note that these moves occurred on a pseudo holiday and could be over-reactions

Weekend Video – Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Leads with New High, Clean Energy ETFs Form Bullish Setups, Copper ETFs Pull Back (Premium)
The bull market remains in place, but we are seeing some short-term weakness in the breadth indicators. This weakness is reflected in small-caps, which pulled back the last two days. Pullbacks from new highs are normal and this could produce a bullish setup in the coming

Short-term Breadth Underwhelms, TLT Ignores Inflation and Holds October, Dollar Extends Uptrend, Oil is Poised to Become Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime is bullish, which means we are in a bull market. However, there are signs of underlying weakness over the last few days and this could give way to a pullback. Note that predicting a pullback within a bigger uptrend is challenging because the bigger uptrend is still

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech Still Leading, Small-caps Pull Back, Copper Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout, Lots of Bull Flags Out There (Premium)
After a nice run from early-mid October to early-mid November, trading conditions turned rough with choppy price action the last two weeks. The tech-related ETFs are still leading, but still quite extended short-term. Some old economy ETFs extended further on their medium-term breakouts and

Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)
The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising

The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium)
The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium)
The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium)
The bull market is clear and present with new highs in large-caps, large-cap techs, mid-caps and small-caps. Micro-caps are the only missing component, but IWC is very close. Participation continues to expand with breakouts in the Industrials

Participation Continues to Broaden, Confusion in the Bond Market, the Noose Narrows for Gold (Premium)
The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened over the last six weeks. SPY and QQQ were already doing their part with clear uptrends and new highs throughout the year. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) broke out of a long triangle in late October