Analysis Archives (premium content older than 3 months)
Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – SPY, QQQ and Tech ETFs Lead Extension – Flag Breakouts Trigger
The bull market continues to broaden with 23 of 53 equity-related ETFs hitting new highs (56%) this week. Thus, more than half of the equity ETFs hit new highs and this shows broad strength in the stock market. Note that there are 60 ETFs in the “core” list and just 7 are non-equity
Video, ChartBook Update and ChartNotes
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Today I am singling out four ETFs to watch closely because they look poised to move.
Weekend Setups and Stocks to Watch – a Big Bank, a High-Tech Industrial, a Miner and More
Today we have a mixed of old and new. Some setups from prior weeks are still in play and near their breakout zones. Four of these are in the Healthcare sector, which is the hottest sector in the market right now.
Market Timing Model – Small-caps Soften as Large-caps Hold Strong
The sky is falling as the S&P 500 fell a whopping .5% the last four days. Small-caps and mid-caps were hammered as the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR fell 1% so far this week and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR declined 1.3%. I am sure that there are probably some good reasons for these miniscule moves. Heck, there are always reasons.
Trend, Pattern, Group and Rank for Core ETFs – Breakouts, Mean-reversion Bounces and lots of Flags
There is broad strength in the equity-related ETFs with leadership coming from large-caps (SPY, QQQ), tech-related ETFs (IGV, SKYY) and even some more defensive names (XLP, USMV). Other defensive names extended their oversold bounces this week with XLU and XLRE moving higher. Stock alternatives
Video, ChartBook Update and ChartNotes
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Today’s video also shows what to watch for the short-term uptrend and covers oil.
Market Timing Model Update and A Few Things NOT to Worry About
The S&P 500 SPDR was never in trouble this year and the Russell 2000 ETF was never up less than 8% year-to-date. Small-caps surged out of the gate with IWM gaining around 17% the first two months of the year. This amalgamation of 2000 stocks then embarked on a long consolidation with a slight downward bias the next six months.
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – High and Tight Flags – Utes, REITs and Gold Become Oversold
The bull market continues to broaden as more money moves into offensive ETFs than defensive ETFs. Momentum is outperforming Minimum Volatility ETF over the last six weeks. The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF hit new highs while the Gold SPDR and 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF fell further.
Video, ChartBook Update and ChartNotes
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Note that the video also covers some of the key charts from Friday’s commentary.
Market Timing Model Update – Pullbacks are our Friends – Here’s What to Watch
The recent breakouts and new highs in several key index, sector and industry group ETFs are bullish for the broader market. Now that we have the “all clear” for stocks, perhaps we should prepare for a pullback.
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – Defensive and Risk-Off ETFs Suffer as Bull Market Broadens
We have seen a pronounced shift over the last few weeks. ETFs that were lagging and in downtrends are breaking out and starting to lead, while ETFs that were leading a few months ago are correcting and lagging. Add ETFs that where already strong and leading to the mix, and we have the recipe for a broadening bull market in stocks.
Video, ChartBook Update and Chart Notes
There were several new highs, and even a few all time highs, this week as stocks extended their October run into early November. This post features some ETF chart notes, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs.
The State of the Stock Market – Market Takes an Offensive Turn in October
Something must be right in the global equity markets because we are seeing new highs in a number of key country indexes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – Precious Metals and Bonds Hijack Halloween
Even though stock-related ETFs are dominating here in October with big moves and new highs in several key groups, the precious metals and bond ETFs
State of the Stock Market – Large-caps Continue the Heavy Lifting
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) has gone nowhere since July, and that’s ok. Consolidations, corrections and pullbacks are all part of the process when it comes to uptrends. As the chart below shows, SPY is knocking on the prior highs and very close to a breakout.
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – Ascending Triangles Taking Shape and New Leaders Emerging
Strength is broadening among the industry group and sector ETFs. In particular, several ETFs that were classified as trending lower and lagging have been upgraded to emerging leaders. I do not mean “Emerging” markets
The State of the Stock Market – There are Two Sides to Every Coin – Don’t Forget to Consider Both
Stocks have been mixed since summer with the major index ETFs trading in ranges the last three months. The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF hit new highs before embarking on their trading ranges, while the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – Some Long-term Laggards Start Showing Signs of Relative Strength
The stock market took on a more offensive tone over the past week with some of the beaten down groups outperforming. In addition, some of the defensive leaders underperformed and even corrected. The Utilities SPDR, Consumer Staples SPDR and
The State of the Stock Market – Key Assumptions Determine Probabilities
My assumptions and biases are based on the bigger trend because it is the dominant force at work. When the trend is up, I view the cup as half full and expect more bullish resolutions than bearish resolutions.
Ranking and Grouping ETFs – Key Large-cap ETFs at Moment of Truth – More Downtrends than Uptrends
The goal of this commentary is to cut through the day-to-day noise and focus on price action that actually matters. Noise can be in the
Semiconductor ETFs Hold Up and Lead Technology Sector
The Semiconductor ETF held up much better than the broader market in September and a bullish pattern is taking shape.