Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Weekend Video – SPY Stalls in Gap Zone, Tech ETFs Break Short-term Resistance, Down Gaps in XLI, XLE, XLB and XRT (Premium)
It was another week full of gaps. Tech-related ETFs rebounded and gapped up on Thursday. The old economy ETFs gapped down on Wednesday and did not partake in the tech rebound. Thus, we have up-gaps and short-term breakouts in tech competing with
Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium)
This commentary will look at oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. I am sure that there are some intermarket narratives at work here, but I will try to stick with the price charts for a pure assessment. Oil is backing off of a massive resistance zone. Gold broke above the 200-day SMA as it extended its run and silver is challenging
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Big 3 with Different Uptrends, EV ETFs Tests Support, Tech ETFs Consolidate near March Low (Premium)
The ETF universe is also split. We are still seeing plenty of strength in the old economy ETFs as several recorded new highs in May. The highest of the high flyers remain weak with ETFs related to clean energy, cannabis, cloud, ARK and biotech forging lower lows here in May (below their March lows). Most eyes are on some tech-related ETFs
Peak Parade, Seasonal Patterns, Small-cap Breadth Lags, A 90% Down Day, SPY Fails in Gap Zone, QQQ Continues to Struggle (Premium)
Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling
Weekend Video – Gaps, Dips and Rebounds, Normalized ROC Remains Bullish, Harami Patterns within Triangles in Tech-Related ETFs (Premium)
It was a week full of gaps, dips and rebounds. For example, SPY gapped down on Tuesday and tested its 50-day SMA on Wednesday. An inside day formed as the ETF rebounded on Thursday and another gap formed on Friday as SPY surged into Tuesday’s gap zone. Several tech related ETFs formed harami candlestick patterns near support and gapped up on Friday. These gaps, while short-term
Oil, Gold, Gold Miners, Silver, Bonds and Dollar and some Macro Viewpoints (Premium)
I covered the stock market environment on Tuesday and Thursday because it seemed timely given price action. This commentary will focus on the macro picture with analysis for oil, gold, gold miners, silver and bonds. Gold looks bullish and we have a new trend signal in the Gold Miners ETF. Copper looks even more
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Peak Parade, Mind the Gap in $SPX, Leaders are Not Immune (Premium)
There is a lot going on in the market here in May, but the action started in February with the peak parade. The market was hit hard from mid February to early March and this February high marked an important peak for several high-flying and tech-related ETFs (TAN, IGV). Next, the Russell 2000 ETF
SPY Correction, QQQ and Tech Weakness, IWM Fails, KRE Holds Breakout, TLT Fails to Bounce, Bearish Setup for Bitcoin (Premium)
Tech and high-growth took another beating on Monday and followed through on last week’s breakdowns. Even though other areas are still holding up, many non-tech stocks and ETFs closed lower after being up during the day. The chart below shows the Home Construction ETF (ITB), Regional Bank ETF (KRE),
Weekend Video – Broad Strength with the S&P 500, Old Economy ETFs Lead, May-June Seasonality, Think Twice on Crypto ETFs (Premium)
It was another week and another new high for SPY and the old economy. Outside of tech and high-growth, strength in the S&P 500 is broad as the S&P 500 Equal-weight ETF also hit a new high. ETFs related to industrials, finance, materials, consumer staples, transports, healthcare, energy, housing, steel, copper, and uranium hit
Timing Models – Long-term Trends for the Big Three, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads, Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).
JETS Shows Short-term Relative Strength, PSCD Breaks Out, ITA forms Bullish Continuation Pattern and EPOL Extends after Breakout (Premium)
A benchmark high/low is a price peak/trough that we can use to compare performance. ETFs that break above benchmark highs, such as the mid March highs, show relative strength. ETFs that fail to exceed these highs show relative weakness. ETFs that break below benchmark lows, such as the late April lows, show relative weakness. ETFs that hold these lows show relative strength.
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Old Economy ETFs Lead, Tech ETFs Lag, Clean Energy Breakdown, Gold and Silver Hold Breakouts (Premium)
Old economy ETFs continue to lead. ETFs related to industrials, materials, metals, housing and finance hit new highs. These ETFs were already in uptrends and they were simply extending on their breakouts, which occurred in March or April. Even though they are leading and in strong uptrends, many are getting quite extended and ripe for a rest. This means they are in the trend-monitoring phase.
Seasonal Trends for the S&P 500 – Best and Worst Six Months, Monthly Breakdowns, Equity Curves (Premium)
Seasonality takes a back seat to price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends or fresh signals. This report will look at the best and worst six months, break down the monthly numbers and analyze trends in the equity curves. May is here and June-July are around the corner so we will focus on these three months.
Weekend Video – Indecision, Whipsaws and Headfakes, Semis and Tech Lag, Old School Leads, Correction Odds (Premium)
The stock market has been churning the last few weeks with indecisive price action producing a fair number of whipsaws and head fakes. The old school ETFs associated with industrials, materials, REITs, housing, steel, metals and agriculture continue to lead. The high-beta high-flyers of 2020 continue to lag and many did not even make it back above
Timing Models – QQQ Non-Confirmation, IWM Lagging, Oil Breaks Out, Bonds Reverse, Fed Balance Sheet Contracts (Premium)
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and