Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Video – Breadth Stays Oversold, Large-caps and Techs Lead, Small and Mids Lag, Lots of Pullbacks within Bigger Uptrends
Today’s video starts with the long-term breadth indicators to establish the market regime. Short-term breadth became oversold and remains oversold after a weak bounce. We will set the level needed for a bullish thrust. Large-caps and techs are leading, while mid-caps and small-caps feel the heat from rising rates. A rough December produced pullbacks and many ETFs are trading in bullish setup zones. We cover these and identify short-term resistance going forward.

A Rough December, Pullbacks within Uptrends, Marking Setup Zones and Resistance, Gold, Bitcoin and China
Today’s report starts with average stocks (equal-weight, mid-caps and small-caps). These groups fell rather sharply in December and gave back their November gains. They have fallen and cannot get back up. Many are trading near bullish setups zones, but remain short of breakouts needed to reverse the short-term pullbacks. We will set the key levels to watch for a dozen ETFs with setups. Attention then turns to gold, Bitcoin and China.

Warning Signs vs Weight of the Evidence, Oversold Double Dip, Leading Tech, SMH Holds Triangle Breakout
Some warning signs appeared in December, but the weight of the evidence remains bullish. We will start with the long-term breadth indicators and then show the oversold conditions in the short-term breadth indicators. SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends and testing their 50-day SMAs. Meanwhile, tech-related ETFs are leading as SMH holds its 200-day SMA.

Weighing Breadth, Yield Spreads and Trends, Warning Signs, Corrections, Breadth for Short-term Signals
Today’s report will highlight the warning signs over the last few weeks and assess the evidence (bull or bear market). Corrections are normal, but what might a normal correction entail? We will review the long-term breadth indicators, yield spreads and the weekly charts for SPY and QQQ, including correction targets. This report ends with two short-term breadth indicators to watch for a bullish signal.

10-yr Yield Breads 40-wk, Similarities with Summer 2022, SPX Becomes Oversold, What to Watch Now
The 10-yr Treasury Yield surged before, and after, the Fed statement. While interest rates are not the only factor affecting stocks, they are the focus right now and we will cover the relationship. S&P 500 stocks are oversold after a 3-week decline and these conditions could lead to a bounce. We will show how to distinguish between a strong bounce and a dead-cat bounce.

Video – Breadth, Yield Spreads, TLT, GLD, BTC, SPY, QQQ, MAGS, ITB, KBE, ITA, LIT, FXI and Follow Up for 14 Stocks
Today’s video starts with the deterioration in short-term breadth. Even so, long-term breadth remains net bullish and yield spreads narrow. We then address the surge in the 10-yr yields, weakness in small-caps and the break down in Home Construction ETF. There are setups in the Bank and Defense ETFs, while the Lithium and China ETFs fell back into their consolidations. We close with follow up on fourteen recently featured stocks.

Stocks Pullback, Yields Surge, Housing Hit, QQQ Leads, A Setup in Defense, Two Bullish Cloud Stocks
Today’s report starts with an overview of short-term break (weak) and long-term breadth (still bullish). QQQ is leading with a new high, but small-caps breadth is holding up as IJR forms a bullish wedge. We then look at the housing failure, weakness in hard assets, a wedge in gold, a bullish setup in a defense ETF and two cloud stocks with bullish charts.

A Leader in Medical Devices, NVDA Stalls above Breakout, SMH Holds Support, CIBR and 3 Stocks
Today’s report covers a leading stock in the Medical Devices ETF (IHI), which is the strongest group with the Healthcare sector. We then analyze NVDA as it consolidates above the October breakout and shows the SMH chart. Attention then turns to the Cybersecurity group with three stocks forming short-term consolidations.

Video – Breadth, Yield Spreads, SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLV, XLP, CLOU, CIBR, SOXX, SMH, ITB, XHB, LIT, GLD, SLV and Eight Stocks
Today’s video starts with long-term breadth, yield spreads and the major index ETFs to define the broad market environment. We then focus on short-term weakness and the pullbacks in RSP, IWM and MDY. Some tech ETFs are very extended and a key group continues to lag. Housing ETFs are testing support, while gold and silver hold their breakouts. We finish with follow up for eight stocks.

Breadth and RSP Signal Pullback, Two Housing ETFs Set Up, Extended Tech ETFs, Two Stock Setups
Today’s report starts with the Advance-Decline Percent indicators to measure participation over the last two weeks. We then turn to the S&P 500 EW ETF to define the current pullback, as well as two housing-related ETFs. Some tech stocks are looking extended and we offer detailed analysis of the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR). We close with bullish setups in an animal healthcare stock and a business software stock.

SPX/NDX Breadth, Yield Spreads, SPY/QQQ Trends, MAG7 Leads and Small-caps Try to Lead
Today’s report will cover the broad market environment. We start with the long-term breadth indicators for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (%Above 200-day, %Above 150-day, High-Low Percent). Attention then turns to the BBB yield spread and long-term chart analysis for SPY and QQQ. QQQ found its mojo as the MAG7 ETF leads. Mid-caps are lagging, micro-caps are leading the small-caps are mixed.

5 Stocks: Tight Bullish Wedges, A Bullish Setup Zone, A Breakout Leader and One Near a Prior Breakout Level – Plus XLV and XBI (Premium)
Today’s report starts with a defense stock and a fintech stock forming tight wedges. After reviewing the rebounds in the Healthcare and Biotech ETFs, we then focus on two biopharma stocks: one testing a Bullish Setup Zone and the other with a leading breakout. And finally, we feature an under-the-radar tech stock trading near its breakout point from late October.

ITB Consolidates, Yields Fall, SOXX Ignores Curbs, LIT, SLV and FXI Set Up, TSM Reasserts Uptrend, META Leads, MSFT Recovers (Premium)
The next report will be posted on Thursday morning, December 5th. Report and Video Headlines Market Overview – A Bull

Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)
The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right