Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Reverse, Key Sectors and ETF Follow, Energy and Ag Buck the Trend (Premium)
Stocks fell sharply the last two days and these declines were enough to reverse the short-term uptrends in many stock-based ETFs. In particular, the short-term uptrends reversed for SPY and QQQ. This is a big deal because the Composite Breadth Model was
Market and ETF Report – SPY Hits Another Make or Break Area, Short-term Uptrends Rule until Reversed, September Seasonality (Premium)
The short-term uptrends are dominating the landscape, or at least this seems to be the case. SPY is below its falling 200-day SMA, but is up some 16% from its mid June low. It is a strong move that has yet to be reversed. In fact, there are dozens of ETFs with similar characteristics:
Market/ETF Video – Composite Breadth Model hits Make or Break Point, Bonds Break Down, More Sectors in Downtrends than Uptrends (Premium)
The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought
Market and ETF Report – SPY Nears 200-day, IWM Triggers, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Agriculture ETF Breaks Out (Premium)
Market and ETF Report – SPY Nears 200-day, IWM Triggers, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Agriculture ETF Breaks Out (Premium)
Market and ETF Report – Stocks Surge, but Bonds Fall, Overbought and Staying Overbought, Trend Composite Settings (Premium)
Stocks surged on reports that inflation was less than expected. Bonds did not. This is interesting because bonds are supposed to be more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. The news, however, is just the reported news we can never be sure of the true reasons for the price moves.
Market/ETF Video – Keys to Short-term Advance, Biotech and Clean Energy Breakouts, Wheat and Agriculture Firm (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a
Market and ETF Report – Resistance-Reversal Zones in Play, More Trend Composite Signals, Stops with Loose Pants (Premium)
We are seeing more bullish Trend Composite signals, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Of the 274 ETFs in the master list, there are 22 ETFs (13%) with positive Trend Composites (uptrends) and 152 (87%) with downtrends. The uptrend signals are
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Breadth Indicators for Thrust and Overbought Conditions, Tech ETFs Break May Highs, JO Intrigues Again (Premium)
Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term
Market/ETF Video – Resistance Reversal Zones are Nigh, Oils Tests Support, TLT Forms Bearish Pattern, Working with ATR Trailing Stops (Premium)
Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market with Slim Pickings, Running into Resistance-Reversal Zone, Palladium Shines (Premium)
Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,
Market and ETF Report – Dow Theory Update, Don’t Fight the Tape, Four of Six Alternative Assets in Downtrends (Premium)
Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing
Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness in Stocks, Downtrends in Metals and Agriculture Extend, Oil Tests Spring Lows (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial
Market and ETF Report – SPY Consolidates within Downtrend, Oil in Downswing, Defensive ETFs Holding Up the Best, PALL Breaks (Premium)
Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces, Oil Swings Lower, Healthcare Shows Relative Strength, Biotechs Get Extended (Premium)
After becoming very oversold in mid June, the major index ETFs are in the midst of oversold bounces or consolidations over the last three weeks. Predicting the extend of a bounce is tricky, but the current bounce since mid
Market/ETF Video – Oil Succumbs to Widespread Weakness, Dollar Leads, Bonds Bounce, ETFs Showing Relative Strength by Holding Up Better (Premium)
Cracks in the stock market began to appear in the second half of 2021 and spread to large-caps in early 2022. Defensive groups within the stock market were holding up, but got hit hard in June. Industrial metals and agricultural commodities were holding