Analysis Archives (>6 months old)

Market and ETF Report – Defensive at Best, Bearish at Worst, Commodity-Related ETFs Continue to Lead (Premium)
The broad market environment for stocks is more bearish than bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is negative, more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above and the S&P 500 is below its 200-day. Also note that yield spreads are rising again, offensive groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading.

Market and ETF Report – Know Thy Strategy, SPY vs Market, SPY vs XLB, Software vs Cybersecurity (Premium)
There are often crosscurrents in the market and these can create confusion. For example, the Trend Composite for SPY is positive, but the 5-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. On the price chart, SPY appears to be in a downtrend in 2022, but there is a short-term bullish

Market/ETF Video – Weakness under the Surface and in Key Groups, Defensive and Commodity ETFs Lead (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish as the 5-day SMA for SPX crossed below the 200-day SMA. Despite whipsaws in the model, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA and High-Low Percent paint a picture of weakness in 2022. SPY and RSP may be holding up, but the

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Market Regime Changes, Defensive Groups and Commodity-Related ETFs Lead (Premium)
Weakness under the surface and weakness within the Nasdaq 100 is weighing on the S&P 500, which cracked again. The weight of the evidence was already bearish for small-caps, mid-caps and

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defining Oversold, Working with Sentiment Indicators, High Beta vs Low Volatility (Premium)
The broad market ETFs were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with growth oriented groups leading the way lower. SPY fell 1%, QQQ was down 2.17%, the Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5% and the Russell 2000 Growth ETF was down 1.88%. In contrast, groups associated

Market/ETF Video – Serious Split in the Market, Defensive Groups Lead, Key Groups Lag, Short-term Flags Fails (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish, but the stock market is as split as ever and some key groups are leading the way lower. Large-caps are leading and small-caps are lagging. We are even seeing a serious split

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Lead Split Market, Commodity ETFs Set Up with Pullbacks, Wary of Flag Breakouts (Premium)
There are large pockets of strength in the stock market, but also large pockets of weakness. In fact, these pockets are almost equal and this is the reason the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since Thanksgiving. The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish and split. The S&P 500 trend model is net bullish

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. Analysis, then turns to the ETFs charts with leading trends, emerging trends and setups.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Still Stronger, Commodities Turn Volatile, Bank ETF Sets Up (Premium)
The market environment is never certain and there are often conflicting signals. It would be easy to say this is one of the most uncertain times ever, but that is probably not the case. There have been plenty of price shocks, global events

Weekend Video – Market Regime Changes as New Highs Expand, Commodity Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators,

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium)
It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)
It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)
The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing