Analysis Archives (>6 months old)
Market/ETF Video – Bounce within Bear Market, New Trend Composite in Several ETFs, Trading Ranges equate to Relative Strength (Premium)
The S&P 500 is in the midst of a modest oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. Counter-trend bounces are part of the process and I have yet to see enough strength to suggest that
Market and ETF Report – Bouncers vs Leaders, SPY Remains Overbought, More Trend Composite Signals, Measuring Relative Performance (Premium)
Almost everything is bouncing, but not everything is leading. Stocks forged a massive one day reversal on October 13th as SPY opened around 349 and closed near 366 for a 2.6% gain on the day. The move from open to close was +4.8%. Stocks followed through on this reversal day with further
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market vs Seasonality and Up Swing, Getting Overbought, UUP Hits Support, Metals Bounce (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up around 7% the last two weeks and we are starting to see short-term overbought indications. Overbought, keep in mind, is a double-edged sword. Overbought suggests that the advance is getting over extended and the bigger downtrend could take over soon
Market/ETF Video – Breadth Becomes Overbought in Downtrend, Healthcare, Energy and Defense Lead, Ag and Industrial Metals Stall Out (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. SPY became quite oversold in late September and early October, and then turned choppy in October. The latest October swing is
Market and ETF Report – Volatility within a Downtrend, Energy Leads, Healthcare Holds Up Better, Defense Pops, Metals Sink with China (Premium)
It’s a bit of a mess out there, both fundamentally and technically. Technically, we have new lows in Chinese stock indexes after sharp declines on Monday, and the major US and European indexes are in downtrends. The major index ETFs here in the US became oversold in late September
Market and ETF Report – Firming within Downtrend, Economically Sensitive Lead Lower, Energy ETFs Outperforming, Metals Sink (Premium)
Stocks are attempting to firm here in October, but any firmness would be a consolidation within a bigger downtrend and any bounce would be considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend.
Market/ETF Video – Volatile Price Action with Downtrend, TLT Hits New Low, Only A Handful of Uptrends in the ETF Universe (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads remain elevated and the overall environment for stocks remains bearish. Price action in the major index ETFs turned choppy and volatile the last few weeks, but this is considered noise within a larger downtrend. September and October
Market and ETF Report – Bounce within Bigger Downtrend, A Few ETFs Showing Relative Strength, Energy ETFs Hit Moment of truth (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend, but in the midst of a oversold bounce, which started with the outside reversal day on Thursday. SPY started this bounce after a 52-week low so this is still considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. Stocks
Market and ETF Report – ETFs Showing Medium and Short Term Relative Strength (Less Weakness), A Look at Gold Miners Breadth (Premium)
Today’s report is a motley mix of ETFs. Only two are in actual uptrends (biotech and the Dollar). The Trend Composites for the clean energy ETFs turned negative on Wednesday so these are clearly out of the picture now. While many ETFs broke their summer lows in September and broke their late September lows in October, some held above both of these lows
Market/ETF Video – Macro Environment Dominates, Correlations Running High, Few Places to Hide (Premium)
The macro environment continues to dominate as stocks moved opposite the Dollar and Treasury bonds. The Dollar Bullish ETF and 10-yr Treasury Yield turned back up the last four days and the S&P 500 fell sharply. The long-term trend for all three
Market and ETF Report – Downtrend Overpowers 2-day Pop, Energy ETFs Hit Short-term Resistance, Wheat and Ag Hold Uptrends (Premium)
Stocks did the old pop and drop with the market surging Monday-Tuesday last week and then falling the next four days. Many ETFs moved to new lows, but some managed to hold above last week’s lows. Several tech and bond related ETFs hit fresh 52-week lows, which
Market and ETF Report – Perfect Storm for Oversold Bounce, Palladium Leads, Ag Holds On, Moment of truth for DB Energy… (Premium)
Stocks got a big oversold bounce the first two days of October, but I am treating it as a counter-trend move within a bigger downtrend and bear market. Adding fuel for the bulls, the Dollar
Market/ETF Video – Yields Spreads Continue to Widen, Oversold Bounces within Downtrends, A Handful of ETFs Bounce within Uptrends (Premium)
Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the
Market and ETF Report – Dollar and Yields Pullback, Stocks Bounce, From Oversold Setup to Short-term Momentum Pop (Premium)
The Dollar finally took a breather from its rapid ascent with a four day pullback and we also saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield fall from around 4% to 3.6%. The Dollar represents the risk-off trade so the pullback facilitated a bounce in
Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives