Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness in Stocks, Downtrends in Metals and Agriculture Extend, Oil Tests Spring Lows (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial metals and agricultural commodities are also in downtrends. Oil and some energy-related ETFs are holding up relatively well, but oil was also hit the last six weeks. Bonds, a typical safe-haven in bear markets, got an oversold bounce within a downtrend. The downtrend, however, is strong and bonds are not a viable alternative either. The Dollar stands out with the strongest uptrend by far as it trades near a 52-week high. In short, there are not many places to hide right now.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Bearish
  • Percent of Stocks Above 200-day Below 20% Across the Board
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Remain Elevated
  • Fed Balance Sheet Contracts Another 20B, but is Flat Overall
  • Gold Extends Downtrend with 52wk Low
  • Industrial Metals ETF Hits 52wk Low with Another Plunge
  • DB Agriculture ETF is in Long-term Downtrend
  • Oil Swings Lower and Tests Spring Lows
  • TLT Gets Bounce within Bigger Downtrend
  • Dollar Surges to Another New High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Only 9 of 274 ETFs in Uptrends
  • XLV, XLP and XLU Hold Up, but Go Nowhere
  • Solar Energy ETF Triggers Uptrend, but Unlikely to Go it Alone (TAN)
  • SPY, QQQ and IWM Form Triangle Consolidations within Bigger Downtrends
  • Bearish Triangle/Pennants in Big 5 Offensive Sectors (XLK, XLF, XLI, XLY, XLC)
  • Cyclical Bellwether ETFs In Downtrends with New Lows (SOXX, KRE, XRT, CARZ, ITB)
  • Tech ETFs Consolidate within Downtrends (SKYY, FDN, IPAY, IGV)
  • Healthcare Not Immune as Staples and Utes Hit Reversal Zones (XLV, XLP, XLU)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Sets Bear Trap, but Has yet to Break out of Flag (PPA)
  • A Bearish Wedge Forms for the Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN)
  • Biotech ETFs Break June Highs, But Hit Bearish Reversal Zones (IBB, XBI)
  • DB Energy ETF Hits Key Retracement Line on Pullback (DBE)
  • Energy SPDR Remains with Bullish Setup (XLE – Plus XES, XOP, AMLP)  
  • Palladium ETF Breaks Out and Remains Volatile (PALL)
  • Coffee ETF (JO) Joins the Breakdown Parade
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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