Market/ETF Video – Resistance Reversal Zones are Nigh, Oils Tests Support, TLT Forms Bearish Pattern, Working with ATR Trailing Stops (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads remain elevated, industrial commodities are weak and oil is testing its spring lows. The vast majority of ETFs are in downtrends (90+ percent) and several key ETFs are hitting resistance-reversal zones. Today’s video will pay special attention to ATR Trailing Stops with examples using ICLN, TAN, XBI, PPA, XLV and PALL.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • July Surge Triggers SPX Breadth Thrust
  • Thrust Models Still Short of Bullish Signals
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Remain Elevated
  • SPY Hits Resistance-Reversal Zone
  • TLT Forms Bearish Wedge within Downtrend (plus TNX)
  • Gold Bounces within Downtrend
  • DB Base Metals ETF Bounces after 52-week Low
  • DB Agriculture ETF Sinks and Stalls
  • Oil Tests Spring Lows
  • Dollar Forms Bullish Wedge within Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Only 15 of 274 ETFs (5.4%) are in Uptrends
  • New Uptrends in ETFs Related to Energy, Utilities and Clean Energy*
  • Energy, Utilities, Healthcare and Defense Hold Up the Best
  • QQQ and IWM Near Resistance-Reversal Zones
  • XLY, XLK and XLI Lead Bounce, but Near Resistance Zones
  • Tech ETFs Fail to Clear May Highs (CIBR, FDN, IPAY, IGV, IDRV)
  • Watching Semis, Housing and EW Consumer Discretionary for Early Clues
  • E&P and NatGas ETFs Hold Uptrends (XOP, FCG)
  • ATR Trailing Stops with Clean Energy ETFs (ICLN, TAN)
  • Biotech ETFs: Bullish Pattern vs Resistance Reversal Zone (IBB, XBI)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Breaks Out of Flag (PPA)
  • Healthcare SPDR Holds Breakout, but Starts Lagging (XLV)
  • Most Commodities are Down since mid June
  • Palladium Holds Wide Stop and Remains Volatile (PALL)
  • Another Setup in the Coffee ETF (JO)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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