Market/ETF Video – Oil Succumbs to Widespread Weakness, Dollar Leads, Bonds Bounce, ETFs Showing Relative Strength by Holding Up Better (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Cracks in the stock market began to appear in the second half of 2021 and spread to large-caps in early 2022. Defensive groups within the stock market were holding up, but got hit hard in June. Industrial metals and agricultural commodities were holding up, but also got hit with strong selling pressure. Oil was the only hold out, but it too got hit with strong selling pressure the last few weeks. The Dollar is the only place to hide and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) finally attracted a safe-haven bid with its biggest 9-day advance in over two years. Overall, there are lots of downtrends and volatility is above average. This makes it a very treacherous environment for those trying to trade.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 200-day is Below 20% Across the Board
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Hit New Highs (again) for 2022
  • Fed Balance Sheet Contracts 20B, but Flat Overall
  • Gold Extends Downtrend with Sharp Decline
  • Industrial Metals ETF Plunges to Fresh 52wk Low
  • DB Agriculture ETF Plunges after Breakdown
  • Oil Joins the Breakdown Parade
  • TLT Gets Biggest 9-day Gain since April 2020
  • Dollar Surges to New High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Only 10 of 276 ETFs in Uptrends
  • Less Lagging vs Seriously Lagging on the All Weather List
  • SPY Attempts to Firm as QQQ Flirts with Oversold Condition
  • DB Energy ETF Plunges to Become Oversold (DBE)
  • Bounces in Energy ETFs Fail (XLE, XES, PSCE)
  • Coffee ETF Gets Jittery as Sugar ETF Turns Sour (CANE)
  • Wheat Leads DB Agriculture ETF Lower (WEAT, DBA)

      Relative Strength, but Price Trends are Flat/Down

  • Healthcare SPDR Forms Bull Flag Near Channel Line Break (XLV, plus IHF)
  • Biotech ETFs Extend Surge (XBI, IBB)
  • Consumer Staples SPDR Forms Pennant after June Surge (XLP)
  • Insurance ETF Consolidates after June Surge (KIE)
  • Utilities SPDR Goes Nowhere (XLU)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Battles Support Break (PPA)

      Oversold Bounces and/or Firming in Downtrends

  • Global Clean Energy ETF Hangs on for Dear Life (ICLN)
  • XLK and Tech ETFs Firm after Becoming Oversold (SKYY, CIBR, IGV)
  • Home Construction ETF Leads off Bounce as 10yr Falls (ITB)
  • Semiconductor ETF Plunges to New Low (SOXX)
  • Retail SPDR Bounces after New Low  (XRT)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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