Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness, Oil Holds Up as NatGas Hits Support-Reversal Zone, Dollar Remains Strong, Industrial Metals Sink (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the DB Agriculture ETF and the DB Base Metals ETF). Oil, the Dollar and a few agricultural-related ETFs are holding up, but the pickings are slim, very slim. Although I am not predicting a 2007-2009 style bear market, today’s video starts with this period and shows that the Composite Breadth Model was bearish for well over a year.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • Weakness Throughout the Stock Market
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Hit New Highs for 2022
  • Junk Bond ETF Breaks Pennant Support
  • Fed Balance Sheet Flatlines
  • Gold Channels Lower and Tests Support Zone
  • Industrial Metals ETF Nears 52wk Low
  • DB Agriculture ETF Breaks Down
  • Oil Bounces off Support-Reversal Zone
  • TLT Gets Small Bounce within Strong Downtrend
  • Dollar Breaks Out of Small Consolidation

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Agriculture and Steel ETFs Join the Downtrends
  • Just a Handful of Uptrends Out There (UUP, Dollar, Energy, Wheat)
  • SPY Reverses at Resistance-Reversal Zone (QQQ, IWM Follow Suit)
  • Big Sectors Hit after Bouncing off 52-week Lows (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLF)
  • Consumer Discretionary ETFs in Downtrends and Leading Lower (RCD, ITB, XRT)
  • Tech ETFs Turn Volatile within Downtrends (SKYY, FDN, CIBR, IGV, SOXX)
  • DB Energy ETF Stalls after Pullback as Nat Gas Hits Support-Reversal Zone (DBE, NG1!)
  • Energy SPDR Becomes Oversold at Support (XLE – Plus PSCE)
  • Pullbacks, Falling Knives and Overshoots (XES, FCG)
  • Wheat ETF Plunges to Prior Uptrend Range (WEAT)
  • Sugar ETF Enters Support-Reversal Zone (CANE)
  • Coffee ETF Fails to Hold Flag Breakout (JO)
  • Palladium, Copper, Silver and Platinum Sink (PALL, PLTM, SLV, CPER)
  • Careful with ST Breakouts in Biotech, Clean Energy and Lithium (XBI, ICLN, LIT)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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