Market/ETF Video – Keys to Short-term Advance, Biotech and Clean Energy Breakouts, Wheat and Agriculture Firm (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a number of ETFs, including the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), the DB Base Metals ETF (DBB), Gold SPDR (GLD). Oil has yet to bounce and reverse its immediate downtrend though. Elsewhere, we will update the breakouts and trailing stops for the biotech and clean energy ETFs, highlight the wedge breakouts in the energy ETFs and show why XLU and IHF are not well suited for the Trend Composite.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Narrow, but Remain Elevated
  • SPY Hits Resistance-Reversal Zone (perhaps too obvious)
  • Defining the Current Upswing with %Above 20-day SMA
  • TLT Forms Bearish Wedge within Downtrend (plus TNX)
  • Big Counter-Trend Bounce for Junk Bond ETF (JNK)
  • Gold Bounces within Downtrend
  • DB Base Metals ETF Bounces after 52-week Low
  • DB Agriculture ETF Firms at Key Retracement
  • Oil Extends Downswing and Breaks Spring Lows
  • Dollar Breaks Out of Corrective Wedge

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Only 22 of 274 ETFs (8%) are in Uptrends
  • Defensive Groups in Uptrends – Plus Biotech and Clean Energy
  • Energy-Based ETFs Test Wedge Breakout Zones (XLE, XOP, FCG)
  • Biotech Breakouts with Tight and Wide Stops (IBB, XBI)
  • Clean Energy ETF Breakouts and Setting ATR Trailing Stops (ICLN, TAN)
  • Lithium Battery Tech ETF Uptrend Signal and Stop (LIT)
  • Utilities and Healthcare Providers Not Suited for Trend Composite (XLU, IHF)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF is Positive Year-to-date (PPA)
    Healthcare SPDR is above Winter-Spring Lows (XLV)
  • Palladium ETF Holds Loose Pants Stop (PALL)
  • Insurance ETF Gets Breakout within Downtrend (KIE)
  • Coffee ETF Consolidates after mid July Surge (JO)
  • Wheat ETF Returns to Prior Uptrend and Firms (WEAT)
  • QQQ and IWM Reach Resistance-Reversal Zones (too obvious?)
  • XLY, XLK, XLI and XLV Reach Resistance Zones as XLF and XLC Fall Short
  • Tech ETFs Break May Highs, but Within Bigger Downtrends (SKYY, CIBR, IGV)
  • Semiconductor ETF Reverses Upswing as Housing ETF Dips (SOXX, ITB)
  • Regional Bank and Medical Devices ETFs Hit Resistance from May Highs (KRE, IHI)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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