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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought within a bearish environment. Yep, we really are at a make or break point in the stock market. Either a continuation higher and bullish signal or a short-term breakdown and continuation of the long-term downtrend. I will show the short-term indicators to watch going forward. Elsewhere, Treasury bonds are breaking down, oil extended it downtrend, base metals got an oversold bounce and agriculture attempted a breakout. We are also seeing more new Trend Composite signals within the ETF universe, but most sectors are still in downtrends and some key offensive groups are still bearish.
Broad Market Notes
- S&P 500 and S&P 1500 Thrust Models Trigger
- Trend Models and Weight of the Evidence Still Bearish
- S&P 500 Approaches Falling 200-day SMA
- Overbought Conditions Last Longer than Oversold Conditions
- Short-term Breadth Indicators to Watch for a Reversal
- Watching the Upswings in Junk, Semis and Housing
- TLT Breaks Wedge Support as 10-yr Treasury Yield Goes for Breakout
- Oil Plunges to Extend Downtrend and Establish New Resistance (plus DBE)
- Gold Falls after Hitting Resistance-Reversal Zone
- DB Base Metals ETF Bounces within Bigger Downtrend
- DB Agriculture ETF Falls Back after Breaking July High
- Dollar Bullish ETF Breaks Out of Bull Flag
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- More new Trend Composite Signals (IWM, XLI, RYT, PPA)
- Top-Down Table Sort Shows Mixed Market and Weakness in High Beta
- Utilities SPDR Leads Sectors with New High (XLU)
- Energy ETFs Hold Up Despite Plunge in Oil (XLE, XOP, FCG)
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Forms Bullish Pennant (XES)
- MLP ETF Breaks out of Pennant (AMLP)
- Trend Composite Signal and Trailing Stop Updates (TAN, ICLN, IBB, XBI, LIT)
- Bullish Trend Composite Signals with Steep Advances (XHB, PPA, PBJ, PHO)
- Healthcare SPDR and Home Construction ETFs Break Out of Consolidations (XLV, ITB)
- Palladium ETF Works its Way Higher (PALL)
- Coffee ETF Falls Back After Short-term Breakout (JO)
- Wheat ETF Consolidates after Sharp Decline (WEAT)
- Tech-Based ETFs Holding Breakouts (SKYY, CIBR, FDN, IGV)
- Momentum and Communication Services Did not Exceed May High (MTUM, XLC)
- Uranium ETF Consolidates after Breakout (URA)