The Composite Breadth Model has yet to trigger bearish as stocks recovered on Monday and closed strong. Despite this reversal, the technical damage has already been done to several big sectors and key industry group ETFs. Even so, the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) managed to hold its
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) reversed its uptrend signal from April 17th, 2020 as two trend-following indicators turned bearish this week. The chart below shows QQQ with the deepest decline from a high since the 10.9% decline in
The S&P 500 fell 5.75% this week and this as the biggest weekly decline since March 2020 (covid crash). It was the second biggest weekly decline since October 2020 (5.6%). Declines like this are normally associated with a selling climax that could give way to a short-term oversold bounce. Longer-term, however,
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Please login to view Premium Content or Subscribe. Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password
The market remains mixed, at best. Small-caps, mid-caps and high-beta stocks are mostly in downtrends and leading the market lower. Large-caps, aka the S&P 500, are still mostly bullish, but also turning mixed because only 53% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. This means 47% are below.
Stocks continued their recent ways with small-caps (IWM) and high-beta tech stocks (QQQJ) leading the way lower in January. IWM is down around 8% year-to-date and QQQJ is down around 11%. The year is starting just how it ended: growth and high beta remain out
Last Tuesday, I wrote about the transition phase currently underway in the markets. Actually, there are a number of transitions underway and perhaps they are linked. While I do not like to dive deep into the fundamentals, the macro backdrop for 2022 is looking very different from 2020 to 2021.
The DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) was featured in ChartWatchers on October 1st as it formed a large cup-with-handle pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the broader market, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness, as seen when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the various indexes. Yield spreads show no signs of stress and the Fed Balance sheet is
The transition process is difficult and the markets are undergoing a transition from a covid-driven economy to a normal economy. A covid economy implies Fed easing, fiscal stimulus and falling Treasury yields. A normal economy means no more balance sheet expansion, no more fiscal stimulus and a normalization of Treasury yields.
In an ideal world, trends would be consistent and persist for months. An ideal uptrend would march higher by consistently recording higher highs and higher lows. Once reversed, a downtrend would take over and work its way lower with lower lows and lower highs. There are plenty of chart examples for these consistence and persistent trends.
Setting expectations is part of a strategy and this includes expectations for the number of signals we can expect in any given year. Signal frequency, of course, depends on your strategy and timeframe. Short-term mean-reversion
The stock market is as mixed as it ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighed SPY and QQQ.
Stocks were rattled on Wednesday with Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary leading the way lower. As noted on Tuesday, the magnificent seven dominate these three sectors. Selling pressure was not limited to tech as REITs, Biotechs, Airlines and
QQQ and the Technology SPDR are holding up and near new highs, but there are still some serious pockets of underperformance within the tech sector and even within the top stocks. Today’s commentary will look at QQQ breadth, the big seven and QQQ’s little brother, QQQJ. We will analyze charts
Stocks started the new year with gains, but there were still some pockets of weakness. The Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) fell as money shied away from high beta tech, weakness in transports weighed on the Industrials SPDR and the Materials SPDR fell over 1%. The Russell 2000 ETF gained
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish with the bounce in stocks over the last five days. Even so, the market remains quite divided right now. Large-caps are still leading, small-caps are still lagging and mid-caps remain caught in the middle. The divide is visible within some sectors as well.
The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a
The stock market is about as divided as can be. It is clear that this is no longer a bull market that lifts all boats. Should we get a bear market, it may not be one that sinks most boats. The Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, but could go either way as the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above the 200-day SMA gyrates around
This commentary will cover bonds, gold, silver and the Dollar. Oil was covered in the ETF Report on Wednesday. TLT and the 10-yr Yield have big continuation patterns working, but the swings within these patterns are going the other way. Gold is going for a breakout as silver surges off support. The Dollar became overbought after a big advance and stalled the last few weeks.