Arthur Hill, CMT

Today’s report to put trend and volatility together so we can identify the best conditions, the worst conditions and the questionable conditions. Most of us know that current conditions are the worst for stocks because we are in a bear market with high volatility. We will chart volatility to show when it is deemed high and

  Please login to view Premium Content or Subscribe. Username Password Remember Me     Forgot Password

Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the

This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the financial markets.

Stocks bounced the last five days, but these bounces are considered counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. One of these counter-trend moves will result in a trend reversal, but this is not the case yet because the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. The first indicator window below shows

As noted in Tuesday’s report and in Wednesday’s video, the majority of ETFs in the Master List (274) are in downtrends. There are a few groups holding up, but even energy and agriculture were hit with selling pressure here in June. Mr Market is dazed, confused

The major index ETFs and big sector SPDRs extended their downtrends and recorded fresh 52-week lows over the last few days. New lows were also seen in most tech and consumer discretionary ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model reflects the broadness of downside participation and widening yield

There are a lot of downtrends out there and not just stock-based ETFs. The vast majority of stock-based ETFs are in downtrends with Trend Composite values in negative territory. ETFs related to industrial metals, precious metals, bonds and non-Dollar currencies are also in downtrends

Today’s commentary will dive into Dow Theory and show some overlap with Elliott Wave. We will show the phase/wave counts for the last bear market and then make an attempt to label the current

The major index ETFs extended their downtrends with a vengeance over the last five trading days. It was a most exceptional period because almost everything declined the last five days – and I do mean everything. 52-week lows expanded

It was a “sell everything” moment the last four days as stocks, bonds, commodities and non-Dollar currencies declined. The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) rose 2.82% the last four days and the Corn ETF (CORN) was up .46%. Those are the only two ETFs

Small-caps are outperforming large-caps over the last one to two weeks because large-caps stalled and small-caps continued higher. Even so, I am not following the siren song of small-cap relative strength and am more concerned with short-term relative weakness in

The major index ETFs are in the midst of a bounce, but this bounce is still considered a bear market bounce. The bigger trends are still down for SPY and QQQ, the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yield spreads are elevated. Despite bullish breadth thrusts in late May, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs

Today’s report will start with the Composite Breadth Model and some words on the Market Regime because this is the dominant force at work for stocks and stock-based ETFs. Some stock-based ETFs are featured in this report because they are either in uptrends on the price chart, have positive Trend Composites or held their January-March lows (did not break down).

Today’s report starts with bonds, the Dollar and gold. I am not, however, going to tie moves in one asset to movements in another. There are some relationships at work, but relations and correlations change and sometimes do not work out as expected. Instead, I will simply analyze

The major index ETFs got big bounces last week, but these are still oversold bounces within bigger downtrends and within the context of a bear market. Despite some breadth thrusts, the Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and yield spreads remain very elevated. Gold is struggling to hold its breakout as the Dollar and

There was a big oversold bounce with some of the most beaten down ETFs leading the way. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) and Home Construction ETF (ITB) were up over 10% in three days.

There are two commodity ETFs with falling wedge patterns working. One falling wedge resulted in a deep pullback and the other in a shallow pullback. Either way, I view these falling wedges as corrections within uptrends and am watching for breakouts. This article will look at the deep pullback in the

The market regime is bearish, but SPY and QQQ are still in oversold territory that could give way to a bounce. In addition, we are seeing short-term strength in some of the high-beta ETFs as Treasury yields fell over the last two weeks. Personally, I am not

Stocks remain short-term oversold and the major index ETFs are still near their May lows. This could give way to a bounce, but the bear market and long-term downtrends continue to provide stiff headwinds. There