Market/ETF Video – 200-day SMAs Coming into Play, Big Sectors are Split, Oil Holds Support, Copper Challenges 200-day (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Even though SPY surged the last five weeks, the big picture items remain the same and I have yet to see enough strength to change these bearish dynamics. There were some serious moves in bonds, Treasury yields, the Dollar and the Euro over the last two weeks, but these moves are still within existing trends. In other words, the big trends have yet to reverse. Ditto for SPY. This means risk in the stock market remains above average.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 20-day SMA Stays Overbought
  • Fed in QT Mode
  • CCC and BBB Spreads are Elevated, but Narrowing
  • Election, Seasonality and Inflation Expectations
  • 200-day SMAs in Play after Big Bounces
  • SPY Extends Counter-trend Bounce
  • TLT Surges to Ignite Counter-trend Bounce (10yr < 4%)
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Becomes Oversold within Uptrend
  • Gold Breaks October High and Challenges 200-day

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • 42 New Uptrends and 78 Uptrends (of 274)
  • Small and Mid Caps Leading as QQQ Lags
  • Housing, Semis and Banks Lead with New Signals* (*But)
  • Big Six Sectors are Split (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLF, XLV)
  • Cup Remains Half Full for Oil as Wedge Rises (USO, DBE)
  • Energy SPDR Hits New High as Others Extend Higher (XLE, XOP, FCG)
  • IoT and Semiconductor SPDR Lead Tech ETFs (SNSR, XSD)
  • Networking ETF Reverses after Sharp Pullback (IGN)
  • Water Resources ETF Extends on Breakout (PHO)
  • Relative Leaders Pull Back/Stall as Others Surge (PPA, KIE, XLV, IHF)
  • Large-cap Biotech ETF Leads Broad Biotech ETF (IBB, XBI)
  • Copper and Copper Miners ETFs Surge to 200-day SMAs (CPER, COPX)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Turn up with Market (TAN, ACES, QCLN)
  • Lithium Battery Tech ETF Breaks October Highs (LIT)
  • Palladium ETF Reverses Downswing with Surge (PALL)
  • Platinum and Silver Break Summer Highs (PLTM, SLV)
  • Soybean and LiveStock ETFs Hold Up (SOYB, COW)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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