Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months. SPY is holding its short-term uptrend as it nears a make or break date with the falling 200-day SMA. Meanwhile, the Dollar fell to its rising 200-day SMA as the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged. Macro themes dominate and this is likely to continue because a slew of economic reports are on deck. Stock-based ETFs are mixed overall with pockets of strength in groups related to healthcare, energy, finance and industrials. Tech and high-beta ETFs continue to lag.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Improves
  • Thrust Models Trigger Bullish (as in mid August)
  • BBB Spreads Narrow, but CCC Spreads are Elevated
  • Inflation Reports on Deck (PCE, Sticky CPI)
  • SPY Extends Counter-trend Bounce
  • %Above 20-day SMA Stays Overbought
  • Key Level to Watch for Correction in 10yr Yield (plus TLT)
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Firms above Rising 200-day
  • Gold Tests Breakout Zone (watch Dollar)

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Stock-Based ETFs are Mixed, at Best (Trend Signals)
  • S&P 500 EW ETF vs the S&P 500 SPDR (RSP, SPY)
  • Semis, Housing, Retail and Growth Hit 200-day SMAs (SOXX, ITB, XRT, IWO)
  • Tech and High-Beta ETFs Still Lagging (SKYY, CIBR, FINX, IGV, ARKK)
  • Finance and Industrials Lead, but Become Very Extended (XLF, XLI)
  • A Motley Crew of Leaders (IGN, XLV, PPA, IHF, KIE, PHO)
  • Biotech ETF Holds Strong as Biotech SPDR Struggles (IBB, XBI)
  • US Oil Fund Breaks Wedge Support (USO, DBE)
  • Energy ETFs Hold Strong as Oil Slumps (XLE, XOP, FCG)
  • MLP ETF Forms Bull Flag (AMLP)
  • Copper ETF Returns to Breakout Zone (CPER, DBB, COPX)
  • Silver ETF Forms Pennant Near 200-day (SLV)
  • Platinum ETF Bounces off Breakout Zone (PLTM)
  • Soybean ETF Attempts to Extend on Triangle Breakout (SOYB)
  • Sugar ETF Shows the Challenge of Commodities (CANE)
  • LiveStock ETF Turns Volatile Near Breakout (COW)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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