Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds do not offer an alternative as the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) hit a new low. Oil and base metals are in downtrend, as is gold. The Dollar, which represent the risk off trade, is in a strong uptrend and near a new high. Most ETFs within the master list are in downtrends and only nine of the fifty All Weather ETFs are in uptrends. Energy, clean energy and biotech are leading within the stock market, but these too could be vulnerable to the broad market environment.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 200-day SMA Indicators below 30%
  • 70/30 Guideline for Bull and Bear Runs
  • Junk and CCC Spreads Significantly Widen
  • Junk Bond ETF Tests Summer Lows (JNK)
  • TLT Hits New Low as 10yr Yield Hits New High
  • Downtrend in Oil Slows, but Does not Reverse (plus NG, DBE)
  • Gold Follows TLT to New Low
  • DB Base Metals ETF Trend Lower
  • DB Agriculture ETF Holds Rising Wedge Advance
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Remains Near 52wk High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Dollar and Clean Energy Lead Ranking Table
  • Soybean ETF Triggers Bearish, but Still in Uptrend
  • SPY Attempts to Firm at Key Retracement, but Downtrend Dominates (QQQ, IWM)
  • Software ETF Leads Techs Lower (IGV, SOXX, SKYY, CIBR, IPAY)
  • Chances of Failure Higher in Bear Markets (XLU)
  • Pullbacks in ETFs with Long-term Trading Ranges (XLV, KIE, PPA, IFRA, IHF)
  • Watching September Highs for Retail, Housing and Banks (RCD, ITB, XRT,  KRE)
  • Energy ETFs Test Trailing Stops with Bull Flags (XLE, FCG, XOP)
  • Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Tests Support (XES, PSCE)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Extend Pullbacks (TAN, ICLN, ACES, PBW)
  • Biotech ETFs Tests July Support Zone (IBB, XBI)
  • Uranium ETF Pulls Back within Upswing (URA)
  • DB Commodity ETF Breaks Channel Support (DBC)
  • Palladium ETF Holds Choppy Upswing (PALL)
  • Silver ETF Holds up Better than Gold (SLV)
  • Can Copper ETF Negate the Breakdown? (CPER)
  • Coffee ETF Breaks out of Bull Flag (JO)
  • Wheat ETF Surges to two Month High (WEAT)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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