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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
Stocks moved sharply lower the last two weeks with ten of the eleven sector SPDRs declining and almost all industry group ETFs falling. Energy-related ETFs and the Uranium ETF were exceptions. The long-term trend for SPY was already down and the short-term trend aligned as SPY broke down last week. This alignment means the short-term trend has the wind at its back and this is causing correlations to rise as more stocks participate in the decline. Selling pressure extended into precious metals, industrial metals, oil and gasoline. Agricultural commodity ETFs held up well and bucked the selling pressure, while bonds remain subdued and have yet to attract the safe-haven bid.
Broad Market Notes
- Bearish Trend Models Dominate Stock Market
- %Above 200-day Indicators Fall below 30%
- Seasonal Tendencies are Negative in September
- Correlations Rise as SPY Moves Sharply Lower
- %Above 20-day SMA Indicators Trigger Bearish
- BBB and Junk Bond Spreads Turn Up as JNK Plunges
- TLT Firms within Downswing (and Downtrend)
- Oil Fails to Hold Breakout as DBE Tests Breakout Zone
- Gold Falls Along with Stocks
- DB Base Metals ETF Breaks Down after 50% Retracement
- DB Agriculture ETF Challenges Rising 200-day SMA
- Dollar Bullish ETF Remains Near 52-wk High
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- Coffee, Dollar, Utilities and Clean Energy Lead Ranking Table
- New Downtrend Signals and Still Many more Downtrends
- SPY, QQQ and IWM Plunge from Falling 200-day SMAs
- Big Sectors Extend Declines from Falling 200-day SMAs (XLK, XLY, XLI, XLF, XLC)
- Utilities, Dividends, Healthcare and Staples not Immune (XLU, IFRA, XLV, DVY, PBJ)
- Housing, Semis, Retail and Banks Move Sharply Lower (ITB, SOXX, XRT, KRE)
- Energy ETFs Fall Back within Uptrend (XLE, XOP, FCG, XES, PSCE, AMLP)
- Solar ETF and Clean Energy ETF Consolidate after Big Breakouts (TAN, ICLN)
- Biotech ETFs and Lithium Battery Tech ETF Fail at Falling 200-day SMAs (IBB, XBI, LIT)
- Aerospace & Defense ETF Gyrates around 200-day SMA (PPA)
- Copper and Copper Miners ETFs Reverse Upswings (CPER, COPX)
- Palladium ETF Fluctuates around 200-day SMA (PALL)
- Uranium ETF Follows Thru on Breakout (URA)
- Coffee ETF Takes the Lead with Trend Signal (JO)
- Wheat ETF Goes for Short-term Breakout (WEAT – plus CORN, SOYB)
- LiveStock ETF Turns Up at Rising 200-day (COW)
- Inflation-Protected Bond ETF Firms at 2/3 Retracement (TIP)
- Three Tech ETFs Firm Even as SPY Plunges (IGV, SKYY, CIBR)