Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward (semis, housing, retail and junk bonds). Overall, I am seeing more strength in risk-off groups than risk-on groups. ETFs related to Healthcare and Staples are leading, while ETFs relative to tech, clean energy and high-beta are lagging.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model Stays Positive
- 10-day EMA of AD% Holds Key to CBM
- 5/200 Cross with 1% Filter vs CBM
- Spreads Narrow and Balance Sheet Contracts
- SPX %Above 20-day SMA Breaks 60%
- SPY Tests Short-term Support
- Lower Highs for Major index ETFs
- TLT Enters Key Retracement Zone (plus $TNX)
- Dollar Bullish ETF Tests Rising 200-day
- Gold Holds Breakout Zone and Challenges 200-day
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- Healthcare, Industrials and Staples Lead ETF Table
- Energy ETFs Become Oversold within Uptrends (XLE, XOP, FCG, AMLP)
- Healthcare, Defense, Water and Insurance Lead Overall (XLV, IHF, IBB, PPA, PHO KIE)
- IWM Breaks mid November Lows as QQQ Tests Support
- Watching Upswings in Semis, Housing, Retail and Junk (SOXX, ITB, XRT, JNK)
- Regional Banks Lead Finance SPDR Lower (KRE, XLF)
Tech-Based ETFs Continue Underperforming (SKYY, CIBR, FINX, IPAY, IGV) - Clean Energy ETFs Breaking Down (PBW, ACES, QCLN)
- USO Continues Lower after Wedge Break (USO, DBE)
- Palladium ETF Remains Under Pressure (PALL)
- Platinum and Silver Hold Breakout Zones (PLTM, SLV)
- Copper and DB Base Metals ETF Near Falling 200-day SMAs (CPER, DBB)
- Wheat Leads DB Agriculture ETF Lower (WEAT, DBA)
- Corn Turns Down as Soybeans Hold Breakout (CORN, SOYB)
- Livestock and Sugar Turn Volatile (COW, CANE)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!