Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward (semis, housing, retail and junk bonds). Overall, I am seeing more strength in risk-off groups than risk-on groups. ETFs related to Healthcare and Staples are leading, while ETFs relative to tech, clean energy and high-beta are lagging.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Stays Positive
  • 10-day EMA of AD% Holds Key to CBM
  • 5/200 Cross with 1% Filter vs CBM
  • Spreads Narrow and Balance Sheet Contracts
  • SPX %Above 20-day SMA Breaks 60%
  • SPY Tests Short-term Support
  • Lower Highs for Major index ETFs
  • TLT Enters Key Retracement Zone (plus $TNX)
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Tests Rising 200-day
  • Gold Holds Breakout Zone and Challenges 200-day

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Healthcare, Industrials and Staples Lead ETF Table
  • Energy ETFs Become Oversold within Uptrends (XLE, XOP, FCG, AMLP)
  • Healthcare, Defense, Water and Insurance Lead Overall (XLV, IHF, IBB, PPA, PHO KIE)
  • IWM Breaks mid November Lows as QQQ Tests Support
  • Watching Upswings in Semis, Housing, Retail and Junk (SOXX, ITB, XRT, JNK)
  • Regional Banks Lead Finance SPDR Lower (KRE, XLF)
    Tech-Based ETFs Continue Underperforming (SKYY, CIBR, FINX, IPAY, IGV)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Breaking Down (PBW, ACES, QCLN)
  • USO Continues Lower after Wedge Break (USO, DBE)
  • Palladium ETF Remains Under Pressure (PALL)
  • Platinum and Silver Hold Breakout Zones (PLTM, SLV)
  • Copper and DB Base Metals ETF Near Falling 200-day SMAs (CPER, DBB)
  • Wheat Leads DB Agriculture ETF Lower (WEAT, DBA)
  • Corn Turns Down as Soybeans Hold Breakout (CORN, SOYB)
  • Livestock and Sugar Turn Volatile (COW, CANE)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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