Market/ETF Video – CBM Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, SPY become Oversold within Downtrend, Very Selective with ETFs (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals were reversed here in September with strong selling pressure and broadening downside participation. The trend components of the Composite Breadth Model remained bearish throughout August and remain bearish now. Yield spreads are rising and this means the market regime for stocks is bearish. Pickings are slim within the stock market and even the stock-based ETFs in uptrends are considered risky in a bear market because correlations rise in bear markets.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Deteriorates
  • Thrust Models Flip Bearish as Selling Pressure Broadens
  • Nasdaq 100 with Fewest Stocks above 200-day
  • Junk and CCC Bond Spreads Surge
  • TLT Plunges to New Lows as 10yr Yield Surges (plus AGG)
  • Oil Tests Support with Two Spikes (plus DBC and DBE)
  • Gold Hits 52-week Low and Fails to Bounce
  • DB Base Metals ETF Becomes Oversold after Breakdown
  • DB Agriculture ETF Holds Rising Wedge Support
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Surges to another 52-week High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • New Downtrend Signals Surge
  • Two EM ETFs Trigger Bullish Amid Sea of Red
  • SPY, QQQ and IWM Hit Short-term Support-Reversal Zones*
  • Big Sectors Mimic SPY with XLK Lagging (plus RCD)
  • XLE and XLU are the Only Sectors Above their 200-day SMAs
  • Junk Bonds, Semis, Retail and Housing Lead Lower (JNK, SOXX, ITB, XRT)
  • Lithium, Agribusiness, Steel and Copper ETFs Breakdown (LIT, MOO, XME, COPX)
  • Energy-based ETFs Remain above Rising 200-day SMAs (XLE, XOP, FCG et al)
  • A Bearish Alternative for the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Correct after Breakouts (TAN, ICLN, PBW, ACES)
  • Biotech ETFs Pullback from 200-day SMAs after Trend-Reversing Breakouts (IBB, XBI)
  • Uranium ETF Battles its 200-day (URA)
  • Aerospace/Defense and Healthcare Providers ETFs Go Nowhere (PPA, IHF, XLV)
  • Food & Beverage ETF Forges Lower High as Select Dividend ETF Breaks (PBJ, DVY)
  • Palladium ETF Struggles at 200-day SMA (PALL)
  • Coffee ETF Tests Breakout with Pullback (JO)
  • Wheat ETF Continues to Firm within Older Uptrend (WEAT)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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