Market/ETF Video – Numerous Failures at the Falling 200-day SMA, Oil and Energy ETFs Buck the Stock Market, Ag ETFs Pop (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model hit its moment of truth and failed to turn bullish as stocks moved sharply lower the last five days. Correlations rose as the vast majority of stock-based ETFs declined. Only energy-based ETFs were spared. The short-term reversal in SPY is concerning because of the long-term trend remains down and we are moving into a seasonally weak period. Bonds do not offer an alternative to stocks as TLT broke down. Outside of energy, agriculture-based ETFs are showing strength and offer possible alternatives to stocks.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Trend Models and Trend Dominate CBM
  • NDX %Above 200-day SMA is Lagging
  • Seasonal Tendencies Not Positive in September
  • Correlations Rise as SPY Moves Sharply Lower
  • %Above 20-day SMA Indicators Trigger Bearish
  • Junk, Semis and Consumer Discretionary Reverse Upswings
  • BBB and Junk Bond Spreads Turn Up
  • TLT Extends on Wedge Break as 10yr Yields Breaks 3%
  • Oil Challenges Wedge Resistance as Natty Battles Summer Highs
  • Gold Hits Short-term Reversal Zone, but within Bigger Downtrend
  • DB Base Metals ETF Retraces Half of Prior Decline
  • DB Agriculture ETF Reverses Near 2/3 Retracement Line
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Surges to New High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Utilities, Staples and Dollar Leading Ranking Table
  • New Trend Signals Turned Mixed (still way more Downtrends)
  • Commodity ETFs and Energy Buck the Stock Market
  • SPY Fails at Falling 200-day (plus QQQ, IWM)
  • Big Sectors Failing Near Their 200-day SMAs (XLK, XLY, XLI, XLF, XLV, XLC)
  • Tech ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts (IGV, SKYY, FDN, CIBR)
  • Housing, Retail and Banks Fail at Falling 200-day SMA (ITB, KRE, XRT, IDRV)
  • DB Energy ETF Breaks Short-term Resistance after Normal Correction (DBE)
  • Energy ETFs Lead with Wedge Extension and Pennant Breaks (XLE, XOP, XES)
  • Solar ETF and Clean Energy ETF Pullback with Stock Market (TAN, ICLN, LIT)
  • Biotech ETFs Trigger short-term Stops, but Long-term Stops Remain (IBB, XBI)
  • Utilities, Dividends and Staples Hold Up Better (XLU, IFRA, DVY, PBJ)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Gyrates around 200-day SMA (PPA)
  • Copper and Copper Miners ETFs Hold Upswings (CPER, COPX)
  • Palladium ETF Falls Along with Stocks (PALL)
  • Coffee ETF Breaks Channel Line with Big Surge (JO)
  • Wheat ETF Surges off Rising Channel Line (WEAT – plus CORN, SOYB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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