Market/ETF Video – Bounce within Bear Market, New Trend Composite in Several ETFs,  Trading Ranges equate to Relative Strength (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The S&P 500 is in the midst of a modest oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. Counter-trend bounces are part of the process and I have yet to see enough strength to suggest that this is different. We are seeing more uptrends within the ETF universe as the Trend Composite turned positive for ETFs related to healthcare and defensive. Several of these new signals are in ETFs with large trading ranges and rising ratio charts (relative strength). Elsewhere, copper is firming with a higher low and grains are lifting the agriculture ETF.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 20-day SMA Becomes Overbought
  • Fed Balance Sheet Contracts Further
  • CCC and BBB Spreads Remain Elevated
  • SPY Gets Oversold Bounce within Downtrend
  • QQQ and XLK Are Lagging
  • TLT Bounces after New Low (10yr > 4%)
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Corrects within Uptrend
  • Gold Tests September Lows

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Uptrends Expand as Healthcare and Defense Join Energy
  • Major Index and Key Sector ETFs in Downtrends
  • Energy SPDR Leads Sectors with Move above August High (XLE)
  • Oil Battles to Hold Short-term Breakout (plus DBE)
  • Energy ETFs Hold Triangle Breakouts (XOP, FCG – plus XES)
  • Medium-term Breakouts and Long-term Ranges (XLV, IHF, PPA, KIE, SDY)
  • Biotech ETF Leads Biotech SPDR with Breakout (IBB, XBI)
  • Networking ETF is the Lone Uptrend within Tech (IGN)
  • Water Resources ETF Breaks Out (PHO)
  • Copper Surges within Consolidation (CPER, COPX)
  • Palladium ETF Becomes Short-term Oversold (PALL)
  • Silver ETF Finds Support Near Summer-Fall Lows (SLV)
  • Lithium Battery Tech ETF Firms Near Spring Low (LIT)
  • Soybeans and Wheat Lift the DB Agriculture ETF (SOYB, WEAT, DBA)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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