Weekend Video – CBM Flips Bullish, Small and Mid Cap Breadth Lags, Commodity Related ETFs Lead, Banks and Insurance Bounce (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 8 February: Trend Composite Signal Testing

Thursday, 10 February: Market/ETF Commentary

Saturday, 12 February: Weekend Video

Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.

Strength within the S&P 500 flipped the Composite Breadth Model bullish this week, but the %Above 200-day SMA and High-Low Percent indicators show more pockets of weakness than strength in the broader market (S&P 1500). The Trend Composite is bearish for all of the major index ETFs after the January declines. We are also seeing a steady increase in volatility the last few months and this is more negative than positive. Yield spreads began widening in November and remain at elevated levels, which shows an increase in stress in the credit markets. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF extended its downtrend with a big move this week and the 10-yr Treasury Yield extended its uptrend. Rising yields are positive for finance-related ETFs, but possibly negative for bond proxies (Utilities, REITs). Elsewhere, oil and energy-related ETFs continue to lead, as do commodity-related ETFs.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Flips to Bullish
  • Tweaking the %Above 200-day Signal Thresholds
  • %Above SMA Indicators Are More Bearish than Bullish
  • New Lows Expand in Small and Mid Caps
  • Yield Spreads Remain Elevated
  • Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Small Amount
  • SPY and QQQ Get Oversold Bounces after Impulse Declines
  • Small and Mid Caps Get Weaker Bounces
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Continues Lower
  • Gold Holds Uptrend and Upswing as Silver Tests Support
  • Dollar Takes a Tumble within Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Commodity Related ETFs Lead Trend-Rank Table
  • Oil and Energy ETFs Lead with New Highs (DBE, XLE, FCG, XOP, XES*)
  • Agriculture and Carbon ETFs Hit New Highs (DBA, KRBN)
  • Base Metals ETF Leads as Copper ETFs Hold Breakouts (DBB, CPER, COPX)
  • Finance, Banks and Insurance Hold Uptrends with Bounces (XLF, KRE, KIE)
  • Staples, Utes and REITs with Normal Pullbacks after New Highs (XLP, PBJ, XLU, REZ)
  • Infrastructure ETF Holds Choppy Uptrend with Bounce (IFRA)
  • Healthcare and Healthcare Providers ETFs Bounce off Support Zones (XLV, IHF)
  • Cyber, Semis and Networking Hold up Best in Tech Land (CIBR, SOXX, IGN)
  • ETFs with Big Trading Ranges (XLI, XLB, XME, ITB)
  • Messy Messy Uptrends for Electric Vehicle ETFs
  • Biotech ETF with a Bottom Picking Flag (IBB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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