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Next Week's Publishing Schedule
Tuesday, 1 February: Trend Composite Trends and Signals
Thursday, 3 February: Market/ETF Commentary
Saturday, 5 February: Weekend Video
Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.
January was a rough month for stocks so far as QQQ fell 11.6% and IWM fell 12.2%. SPY and the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) held up much better with declines of around 6%. Again, we are seeing more weakness in mid-caps, small-caps and Nasdaq 100 stocks than in the broad large-cap universe (SPY, RSP). The breadth indicators show far more stocks in long-term downtrends than uptrends and yields spreads are widening. Even though stocks are short-term oversold and ripe for a tactical bounce, there are more pockets of weakness than strength and the Market Regime is bearish. The commodity ETFs and KRBN continue to lead the market, as are the energy-related ETFs. Several ETFs are near support levels from their Sept-Oct lows and oversold, which could give way to a bounce. We end with long-term and extreme oversold conditions for the biotech ETFs, which means that perhaps the worst is over.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model Flips Bearish
- %Above SMA Indicators Deteriorate Further
- Bear Markets are Like a Box of Chocolates
- AAA and BBB Spreads Remain Elevated
- Fed Balance Sheet Contracts a Small Amount
- Tactical Bounce after Oversold (AAII, Put/Call, VIX, RSI)
- SPY Battles the 200-day SMA
- QQQ Gets 90% Up Day for Advance-Decline Percent
- Small and Mid-caps Forge Lower Lows from Monday to Friday
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Consolidates after Break Down
- Gold is Anybody’s Guess
- Dollar Hits New High
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- Downtrends Expand on Trend/Rank Table
- Oil and Energy ETFs Continue to Lead (DBE, XLE, XOP, FCG, XES)
- Global Carbon ETF Consolidates within Strong Uptrend (KRBN)
- XLF Holds December Lows as Banks Hit Retracements (KRE, KBE)
- Staples Related ETFs Hold Uptrends and Hit Retracements (XLP, PBJ)
- Agriculture and Base Metals ETFs Hold Leading Uptrends (DBB, DBA)
- REITs Hit Hard, but Utes Hold December Low (XLRE, REZ, XLU)
- Healthcare SPDR and Healthcare Providers Hit October Lows (XLV, IHF)
- Some very Choppy Uptrends/Ranges (XLI, IFRA, XLB, KIE, XME, MOO)
- Home Construction ETF Hits October Low (ITB)
- Copper Miners ETF Test Breakout as Copper Fails (COPX, CPER)
- Lithium, Metals and Uranium Break Down (LIT, REMX, URA)
- Electric Vehicle ETFs Break Down (CARZ, IDRV, DRIV)
- XLK Closes at High of the Week
- IPAY, IGV and FDN Hold above Monday Lows
- Stink Bids for Biotechs? (IBB, XBI)