Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 1 March: Market/ETF Commentary

Thursday, 3 March: Trend Composite Strategy (part 5) with All Weather List

Saturday, 5 March: Weekend Video

Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.

Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress levels in the credit markets. Thus, the market regime is still bearish. Today’s video will focus on line charts to filter out some of the recent volatility. ETFs related to energy, steel, metals and agriculture continue to lead. Staples and banking ETFs are holding strong with bullish continuation patterns. There are some ETFs with higher lows from January to February and they show short-term relative strength. There are even some bullish wedges out there that warrant our attention.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • More Long-term Downtrends than Uptrends
  • A One-day Bullish Breadth Thrust, but no 10-day Thrust
  • New Lows Expand beyond 10%
  • Yield Spreads Continue to Widen and Show Stress
  • SPY: Impulse Decline vs Bullish Wedge
  • QQQ Follows Through, but Still has More to Do
  • Small-caps Show Short-term Relative Strength
  • TLT Fails to Break Short-term Resistance (TIP does)
  • Gold Extends Uptrend as Silver Strengthens
  • DB Energy ETF Hits New High
  • Dollar Remains in Choppy Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Silver and Steel ETFs Trigger Uptrend Signals
  • Getting Perspective with Line Charts
  • Metals & Mining SPDR Holds Big Breakout and Hits New High
  • Energy ETFs are Near Highs and Leading (XLE, XOP, FCG – plus XES)
  • Staples ETFs Form Bullish Consolidations after New Highs (XLP, PBJ)
  • Global Carbon ETF Pulls Back after Breakout and New High (KRBN)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Falls back after New High (DBA)
  • Copper Miners Hit Multi-Month High as Copper Grinds Higher (COPX, CPER, DBB)
  • Bank ETFs form Bullish Consolidations within Uptrends (KRE, KBE)
  • Choppy and Messy Uptrends (XLF, KIE, MOO, IFRA, IHF)
  • Strategic Metals ETF Retraces Half after New High (REMX – plus LIT and URA)
  • Held Autumn Low and Formed Higher Lows Jan-Feb (FIVG, IGN, SOXX – Plus CIBR)
  • Held Autumn Lows and Formed Falling Wedges (XLK, XLV, XLU, REZ)
  • Going for Breakout and Trend Reversal (ITA, XAR, SLX)
  • Self-Driving EV Tech ETF Forms Steep Falling Wedge (IDRV)
  • Global Clean Energy ETF Shows ST Relative Strength (ICLN)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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