Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 22 February: Trend Composite Part 4: Momentum Portfolio:

Thursday, 24 February: Market/ETF Commentary

Saturday, 26 February: Weekend Video

Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.

The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish this week as the S&P 500 led the broad market lower. New lows expanded and some 60% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs. Throw in widening yield spreads and the Market Regime is clearly bearish. Small-caps and mid-caps held  up better this week, but short-term bearish patterns loom. Among the ETFs, commodities and commodity-related are leading, staples and finance related are holding up and XLU is near support. Several tech-related ETFs bounced in early February, but formed short-term bearish patterns and broke down this week. Other ETFs are also forming short-term bearish patterns and could be next. Overall, risk and volatility are above average.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Flips with 5/200 Cross
  • %Above SMA Indicators Tells the Story of the Market
    January Bearish Breadth Thrusts have Yet to be Reversed
  • New Lows Expand in Mid-caps, Small-caps and NDX
  • Stress Builds in the Credit Markets
  • JNK and MBBB Lead Corporate Bonds Lower
  • Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Modest Amount
  • SPY and QQQ Reverse Short-term Upswings
  • Small and Mid Caps Hold Up Better (short-term, not long-term)
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Gets a Safe Haven Bounce
  • Gold Surges within Uptrend and Silver Follows
  • Dollar Bounces after Sharp Pullback within Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Oil and Energy ETFs in Leading Uptrends and Extended (WTI, XLE, FCG)
  • Finance, Banks and Insurance Uptrends Not Immune (XLF, KRE, KIE)
  • Agribusiness and Metals ETFs in Leading Uptrends, but Extended (MOO, XME)
  • Consumer Staples SPDR and Food & Beverage ETF Hold Up (XLP, PBJ)
  • Global Carbon ETF Dips within Uptrend (KRBN)
  • Copper ETFs Hold Choppy Uptrends as DBB Leads (CPER, COPX, DBB)
  • Bearish Flags, Wedges and Pennants (XLB, IFRA, ITB, XRT, IHF, DRIV, CARZ)
  • Four Big Sectors Reverse Short-term Bounces (XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI)
  • Utilities SPDR Near Bottom of Rising Channel (XLU)
  • REITs Sink and Residential REIT ETF Fails (IYR, REZ)
  • Tech-Related ETFs Get Clobbered Again (SKYY, CIBR, SOXX, IGV, FINX)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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