Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 8 March: Market/ETF Commentary

Thursday, 10 March: Trend Composite Strategy (part 5) with All Weather List

Saturday, 12 March: Weekend Video

Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.

The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA, more stocks are in long-term downtrends than long-term uptrends and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Money moved into defensive areas of the stock market this week as Utilities, Staples and REITs performed well. We are also seeing strength in Infrastructure. There were big breakouts in ETFs related to Steel and Aerospace/Defense. Commodity-related ETFs remain very strong and continue to lead, but I am concerned with parabolic moves in some.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • SPX %Above Fluctuates Around the 40% Level
  • Two One-day Bullish Breadth Thrusts, but no 10-day Thrust
  • Damage Done with New Low Expansion
  • Yield Spreads Show Stress in Credit Markets (SJNK plunges)
  • Oversold Bounces Hit Resistance (SPY, QQQ, IJR)
  • TLT is Very Confused, but Holds Short-term Breakout (TIP leads)
  • Gold Hits 52-week High as SLV Breaks Out (PLTM too)
  • DB Energy ETF Goes Parabolic
  • Dollar Surges as Euro Plunges

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Commodity and Defensive ETFs Lead Trend/Rank Table
  • Energy Related ETFs Surge to New Highs (DBE, XLE, FCG, XES)
  • Staples Related ETFs Hold Firm (XLP, PBJ)
  • DB Base Metals ETF Goes Parabolic as Copper Joins (DBB, CPER, COPX)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Gets Wild within Uptrend as Sugar Breaks Out (DBA, CANE)  
  • Infrastructure ETF Breaks Out of Bullish Continuation Pattern (IFRA)
  • Utilities, REITs and Healthcare Break Wedge Lines (XLU, XLRE, XLV)
  • Aerospace-Defense and Steel ETFs Trigger Uptrends (ITA, SLX)
  • Strategic Metals, Uranium and Cybersecurity Battle Breakout Zones (URA, REMX)
  • Lithium Battery Tech ETF Falls Short of Breakout (LIT)
  • Semiconductor and Networking ETFs Fail to Break Out (IGN, SOXX)
  • Finance SPDR Turns Down and EU Bank ETF Hits New Low (Plus KRE)
  • Global Carbon ETF Sinks as Oil Surges (KRBN)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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