Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to the rescue with a big balance sheet boost, but yield spreads remain elevated and show stress in the credit market. Overall, it is a mixed picture. There are rotations within the market and the price swings are big, both ways. Today’s video will look at the current leaders that are in upswings and keep an eye on the current laggards, which are in downswings.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model Improves, but Remains Bearish
  • SPX: 5-day Crosses Above 200-day SMA
  • Yield Spreads Remain Elevated and Show Stress
  • Fed Comes to the Rescue with Big Balance Sheet Expansion
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Stalls at Resistance (TLT)
  • Dollar Reverses Short-term Upswing (UUP)
  • Precious Metals Surge and Turn Volatile (GLD, SLV, PLTM)
  • Gold Miners ETF Extends and Turns Volatile (GDX, SIL)
  • Oil Breaks Support and Becomes Oversold (USO)

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • A Market of Big Swings and Rotations
  • QQQ Continues to Lead with a Breakout
  • Tech and Comm Services Lead, while Defensive Sectors Hold Up
  • Semis Lead Tech-Based ETFs (SOXX, IGV, CIBR)
  • Video Games eSports ETF Gets Breakout (ESPO)
  • Global Auto ETF Breaks out of Flag after Throwback (CARZ)
  • Home Construction ETF Still Correcting (ITB)
  • Defense and Water ETFs Test Support (PPA, PHO, CGW)
  • Utilities SPDR Gets Cold Feet on Breakout (XLU, XLP, XLV)
  • Biotech SPDR Still on the Radar (IBB, XBI)
  • Russell 2000 Growth ETF Swings within Big Bearish Pattern (IWO)
  • Energy SPDR Forges an Island Reversal (XLE)
  • Retail SPDR Remains in Sharp Downswing (XRT)
  • Base Metals and Copper Correct After Big Moves (DBB, CPER)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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