Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or even flat flags. Instead of breaking to the upside, they broke to the downside and reversed their short-term uptrends. 2022 was year of the big swing and the whipsaw. I cannot help but wonder if 2023 will continue as such for a few months. Elsewhere, the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke out, the Dollar is strong and oil cannot break resistance. Stock-based ETFs are in pullback mode here in February. Outside of stocks, we are seeing some strength in copper and soybeans.
Next Report will be posted on Friday, February 24th
Broad Market Analysis
- Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
- SPY Breaks Short-term Support within Rising Wedge
- Yield Spreads Tick Up as Stocks Falter
- Junk Bond ETF Breaks Wedge Line with Sharp Decline
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Extends Lower after Support Break
- 10-yr Treasury Yield Breaks December High
- Dollar Challenges January High as Yields Rise
- Gold Hits 33% Retracement Level
- USO Reverses Short-term Upswing within Downtrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- Leading ETFs Pull Back (KIE, PPA, PHO, XES, ITB)
- QQQ Breaks Support and Leads with Second 90% Down Day
- IWM Reverses Upswing within Rising Channel
- Four Key Offensive Sectors Break Short-term Support (XLK, XLY, XLI, XLF)
- Software and Semis Break Short-term Support (plus IGV, SOXX, DRIV, SKYY, FDN)
- Cybersecurity Holds Up Short-term (but CIBR is not an island)
- Housing and Retail Lead the Market Lower (ITB, XRT)
- Regional Bank ETF Reverses Upswing within Descending Triangle (KRE)
- Biotech ETFs Fall with the Rest of the Market (IBB, XBI)
- Energy SPDR Tests Support as MLP ETF Breaks Support (XLE, AMLP)
- Clean Energy and Telemedicine Lead Lower in 2023 (ICLN, EDOC)
- Defensive ETFs Still in Pullback Mode (SPLV, XLP, PBJ, XLV, XLU)
- Copper and Base Metals Break Out (CPER, DBB, COPX)
- Soybeans Extend on Breakout as Corn Consolidates within Uptrend (SOYB, CORN)