Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat: overbought conditions in the high-beta risk-on ETFs. Semis, housing, retail and other ETFs are up sharply since late December and the short-term uptrends are steep. In fact, I would call them unsustainable and this increases the odds for a pullback or consolidation. Today’s video will mark short-term support levels to define the uptrends in several high-beta risk-on ETFs. Elsewhere, I am concerned with a short-term breakout in the 10-yr Treasury Yield because rising yields could weigh on high-beta stocks. Also note that rising yields would be bullish for the Dollar and this could weigh on metals.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
- %Above 200-day Exceeds 70% for the big Four
- SPY Breaks Out of Falling Wedge (Corrective Pattern)
- Yield Spreads in Downtrend (Narrowing)
- QQQ Breaks Double Bottom Resistance
- IWM Outperforms and Breaks Nov-Dec Highs
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Fails at Resistance
- 10-yr Treasury Yield Gets Breakout within Wedge
- Dollar Surges along with Treasury Yields
- Gold and Precious Metals Hit by Surging Dollar
- Oil Remains in Long-term Downtrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- Insurance, Defense and Water are the Price Leaders
- XLE Holds December Low with Oversold Bounce
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Holds Strong
- Home Construction ETF Leads, but Very Overbought
- Biotech ETFs Continue to Work Higher
- Low-Beta Risk-Off ETFs Setting Up Bullish with Pullbacks
- Tech ETFs Break Resistance, but Surges Look Unsustainable
- Auto-Related ETFs with Double Bottom Breakouts, but…
- Base Metals and Copper Pullback after Big Surges