Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat: overbought conditions in the high-beta risk-on ETFs. Semis, housing, retail and other ETFs are up sharply since late December and the short-term uptrends are steep. In fact, I would call them unsustainable and this increases the odds for a pullback or consolidation. Today’s video will mark short-term support levels to define the uptrends in several high-beta risk-on ETFs. Elsewhere, I am concerned with a short-term breakout in the 10-yr Treasury Yield because rising yields could weigh on high-beta stocks. Also note that rising yields would be bullish for the Dollar and this could weigh on metals.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • %Above 200-day Exceeds 70% for the big Four
  • SPY Breaks Out of Falling Wedge (Corrective Pattern)
  • Yield Spreads in Downtrend (Narrowing)
  • QQQ Breaks Double Bottom Resistance
  • IWM Outperforms and Breaks Nov-Dec Highs
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Fails at Resistance
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Gets Breakout within Wedge
  • Dollar Surges along with Treasury Yields
  • Gold and Precious Metals Hit by Surging Dollar
  • Oil Remains in Long-term Downtrend

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Insurance, Defense and Water are the Price Leaders
  • XLE Holds December Low with Oversold Bounce
  • Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Holds Strong
  • Home Construction ETF Leads, but Very Overbought
  • Biotech ETFs Continue to Work Higher
  • Low-Beta Risk-Off ETFs Setting Up Bullish with Pullbacks
  • Tech ETFs Break Resistance, but Surges Look Unsustainable
  • Auto-Related ETFs with Double Bottom Breakouts, but…
  • Base Metals and Copper Pullback after Big Surges
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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