Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on Powell’s testimony, one would have expected TLT to fall sharply. The short-term breakout in SPY is getting a test and TLT continues to firm. An upside breakout in TLT could be positive for stocks because these two are mostly positively correlated. An upside breakout in TLT would imply a short-term reversal in the 10-yr Treasury Yield and falling yields could be positive for high beta stocks. TLT has yet to break out and many tech ETFs remain in pullback mode. Today’s video will highlight the patterns and resistance levels to watch for these pullbacks.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • SPY Tests 200-day and Wedge Support
  • Short-term Breakout in SPY Gets a Test
  • Yield Spreads Remain Narrow Overall
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Firms, Despite Fed Testimony (TLT, $TNX)
  • Dollar Breaks Out of Bull Flag
  • Gold and Platinum Plunge as Dollar Surges
  • USO Remains Range Bound with Clear Resistance Level

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • IWM Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout as Small-caps Lag
  • QQQ Falls Back to Breakout Zone
  • Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Finance in ST Downtrends (XLK, XLY, XLF)
  • Aerospace & Defense and Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Hold Up (PPA, XES)
  • Insurance and Water Correct as Market Weakens (KIE, PHO)
  • High-Beta ETFs in Short-term Downtrends (ARKK)
  • Semiconductor and Cybersecruity Form Triangles after Big Surges (SOXX, CIBR)
  • Software and Cloud Computing Correct with Falling Flags (IGV, SKYY)
  • Home Construction and Energy Fall back after Short-term Breakouts (ITB, XLE)
  • Retail and Regional Banks Fail to Break Out and Lag (XRT, KRE)
  • Failed Breakouts in Copper and Agribusiness (COPX, MOO)
  • Airline and Solar Hold Breakouts (JETS, TAN)
  • Clean Energy and Biotech SPDR Set Up with Pullbacks (PBW, XBI)
  • Copper and Base Metals Extend Pullback (CPER, DBB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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