Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence in the credit markets and this is also a positive for stocks. 2023 saw a shift from risk-off defensive ETFs to risk-on high-beta ETFs. Several tech-based ETFs confirm this shift as they broke above their November-December highs and forged higher highs. Today’s video will cover these breakouts as well as the big falling wedge in SPY and the double bottom in QQQ.
Broad Market Notes
- CBM Surges to +3
- %Above 200-day Exceeds 60% for $NDX and $MID
- SPY Breaks Wedge Line and Challenges 30-Nov Peak
- When Wedges Turn into Channels
- %Above 20-day: When Signals Fail
- Yield Spreads in Downtrend (Narrowing)
- QQQ Challenges Double Bottom Resistance
- IWM Outperforms and Breaks Nov-Dec Highs
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Forms Bullish Pennant
- Dollar Consolidates within Downtrend
- Gold Holds Gains, but Remains Overbought
- US Oil Fund Breaks Short-term Support
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- New Trend Composite Signals
- New Oversold Setup, but Filter Fail
- Technology SPDR Challenges December High (XLK)
- Cybersecurity and Software Extend on Wedge Breakouts (CIBR, IGV)
- Self-Driving and Autos Confirm Double Bottoms (DRIV, IDRV, CARZ)
- Internet, Mobile Payments and Semis Forge Higher Highs (FDN, IPAY, SOXX)
- Home Construction Continues to Lead (ITB)
- Insurance and Aerospace/Defense Hit New Closing Highs (KIE, PPA)
- Biotechs Hold Breakouts/Uptrends (IBB, XBI)
- Defensive Groups Lag, but Form Bullish Pullbacks (SPLV, XLV, XLP, PBJ, XLU)
- Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts (XLE, XOP, FCG, AMLP, XES)
- Solar Energy and Global Clean Energy Consolidate after Surge (TAN, ICLN)
- Transports Form Bull Flag (IYT)
- Platinum, Silver and Copper Correct/Consolidate after Surges (PLTM, SLV, CPER)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!