Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence is Bullish, Flags Forming After Breakouts, Key Short-term Support Levels to Watch (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the high-beta risk-on groups leading. Many became overbought in early February and pulled back the last 1-2 weeks. Some held up better and simply consolidated with sideways trading ranges (XLK, IGV, CIBR). Short-term consolidations and pullbacks after a big advance are bullish continuation patterns and breakouts would be bullish. Short-term, I am using key support for SPY, QQQ and four offensive sectors to define the upswings. Support breaks in these key ETFs would be bearish and argue for a deeper pullback after the January surge.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • SPY Breaks Out of Falling Wedge
  • 70% of S&P 500 Stocks above 200-day
  • Yield Spreads Tick Up, but Narrowing Trend Intact
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Breaks Short-term Support
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Holds Breakout Within Wedge
  • Dollar Breaks Short-term Resistance as Yields Rise
  • Gold and Precious Metals in Short-term Downtrends
  • Oil Find Support, but Remains Short of Trend-Reversing Breakout

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • SPY and QQQ Form Short-term Flags after Breakouts
  • Key Short-term Levels for Four the Offensive Sectors
  • Insurance, Defense, Housing, Water and Oil Equip-Serv Hit 52wk Highs
  • Energy SPDR Reverses Downswing within Triangle
  • MLP ETF Holds above Breakout Zone
  • Biotech ETFs Pull Back within Uptrends
  • Tech, Cyber and Software ETFs Consolidate after Sharp Surges
  • Semiconductor ETFs Form Falling Flags after Sharp Advances
  • Cloud Computing and Internet ETFs Form Falling Wedges after Sharp Advances
  • Low Volatility and Defensive ETFs Remain in Short-term Downtrends
  • Base Metals ETF Hits Retracement Zone as Copper Firms (plus COPX)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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