Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the high-beta risk-on groups leading. Many became overbought in early February and pulled back the last 1-2 weeks. Some held up better and simply consolidated with sideways trading ranges (XLK, IGV, CIBR). Short-term consolidations and pullbacks after a big advance are bullish continuation patterns and breakouts would be bullish. Short-term, I am using key support for SPY, QQQ and four offensive sectors to define the upswings. Support breaks in these key ETFs would be bearish and argue for a deeper pullback after the January surge.
Broad Market Analysis
- Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
- SPY Breaks Out of Falling Wedge
- 70% of S&P 500 Stocks above 200-day
- Yield Spreads Tick Up, but Narrowing Trend Intact
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Breaks Short-term Support
- 10-yr Treasury Yield Holds Breakout Within Wedge
- Dollar Breaks Short-term Resistance as Yields Rise
- Gold and Precious Metals in Short-term Downtrends
- Oil Find Support, but Remains Short of Trend-Reversing Breakout
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- SPY and QQQ Form Short-term Flags after Breakouts
- Key Short-term Levels for Four the Offensive Sectors
- Insurance, Defense, Housing, Water and Oil Equip-Serv Hit 52wk Highs
- Energy SPDR Reverses Downswing within Triangle
- MLP ETF Holds above Breakout Zone
- Biotech ETFs Pull Back within Uptrends
- Tech, Cyber and Software ETFs Consolidate after Sharp Surges
- Semiconductor ETFs Form Falling Flags after Sharp Advances
- Cloud Computing and Internet ETFs Form Falling Wedges after Sharp Advances
- Low Volatility and Defensive ETFs Remain in Short-term Downtrends
- Base Metals ETF Hits Retracement Zone as Copper Firms (plus COPX)