Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move towards high-beta ETFs in January, as well as a move away from low volatility ETFs. January is clearly risk-on so far and the market is at a moment of truth. One more push higher would turn the Composite Breadth Model positive, move the 5-day SMA above the 200-day and trigger a big wedge breakout in SPY. The Market Regime page highlights these key charts.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model is Negative
  • %Above 200-day SMA Indicators are Strong
  • Junk and BBB Spreads Reflect Growing Confidence
  • A 12 month Falling Wedge for SPY
  • SPY Becomes short-term Overbought (%Above 20-day)
  • QQQ Bounces within Downtrend
  • IWM Outperforms and Challenges Nov-Dec High
  • TLT Forms Higher Low, but Still in Downtrend
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Corrects after New High
  • Dollar Accelerates Lower as Gold Accelerates Higher
  • US Oil Fund Challenges Resistance  

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • New Uptrend Signals over the last Five Days
  • Low Volatility ETFs Lagging in January: SPLV, XLV, XLP, PBJ, XLU
  • High Beta ETFs Leading in January: ACES, DRIV, SOXX, ESPO, YOLO
  • EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Goes for Breakout (RCD)
  • ETFs with Leading Uptrends: ITB, KIE, PPA, PHO, XME
  • Low Volatility ETFs Pullback after Surging (XLV, XLP, XLU, PBJ)
  • Energy ETFs with Breakouts Working (XLE, XES, AMLP)
  • Energy ETFs with Deeper Corrections (XOP, FCG)
  • Biotech ETFs Break Out (IBB, XBI)
  • Internet, Payments and Semis Challenge Resistance (FDN, IPAY, SOXX)
  • Momentum ETF with Bullish Pullback/Retracement (MTUM)
  • Networking ETF Turns Up within Consolidation (IGN)
  • Technology SPDR Forms Higher Low with Breakout (XLK)
  • Digital Health, Cyber Security and Software with Higher Lows (CIBR, IGV, EDOC)
  • Self-Driving EV Tech ETF Forms Possible Double Bottom (IDRV)
  • Palladium ETF Firms within Downtrend (PALL)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

Scroll to Top