Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to
Recent events in the banking world jolted stocks. This jolt was enough to push the Composite Breadth Model into negative territory and widen yield spreads. The Regional Bank
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the
February has been a tough month for stocks and the vast majority of ETFs. The S&P 500 peaked on February 2nd and is down around 4.6% the last 16 days. All sector SPDRs are down over this period with
Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early
The report explains the All Weather ETF strategy using the Trend Composite to find uptrends and StochClose to rank performance. Using the Composite Breadth Model to time the stock market, this strategy focuses on stock-based ETFs during bull markets and non-stock ETFs during bear markets. These stock alternatives extend to commodity ETFs, currency ETFs and bond ETFs. This report includes plenty of chart examples and performance metrics.
ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs Read More »
High-beta and risk-on ETFs are leading the market here in 2023 with big surges the last five weeks. Many triggered bullish trend signals, but they are also short-term overbought and ripe for a rest. Conversely, low-beta
Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment
Today’s report will dive into monthly seasonal patterns using benchmark metrics and equity curves. The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias.
Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over
Today’s report will cover some seasonal patterns at work in the stock market. The Santa Claus Rally just ended on Wednesday and the eight day turn-of-the-month ends on Friday. Historically, these are short-term bullish periods. The fourth
We start the New Year with a negative Composite Breadth Model and bear market environment. 2022 was the year of the whipsaw and largely a year to forget. Nobody knows that 2023 will bring, but the bear market environment indicate that risk remains above average for
Today’s report will start with a stock market overview with analysis of the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and three key industry group ETFs (SOXX, XRT, ITB). Housing is holding up, but the other five broke down and the weight
Today’s update starts with the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) because they broke down over the last few days and their breakdowns signal a continuation of the long-term downtrends. Moreover, the Composite Breadth Model turned
The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group
