Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium)

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ETF Trend Signals
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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke out of a double bottom and then fell back into the breakout zone. IWM led the market in January and also pulled back. These pullbacks could be mere corrections after the big moves in January, but the short-term trends are down until we see some breakouts. As such, I will be watching short-term resistance levels for breakouts. There are many other ETFs with these pullback patterns and I will highlight these in today’s video.  

Next Report will be posted on Friday, March 3rd.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • SPY Tests 200-day and Wedge Line
  • SPY is Oversold with Dip below Lower Band
  • Yield Spreads Tick Up, but Remain Narrow
  • Junk Bond ETF and those Pesky Trendlines
  • TLT: Watching the Downswing within a Triangle
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Breaks December High
  • Dollar Breaks January High, but is Short-term Overbought
  • Gold Hits 33% Retracement Level (plus Platinum)
  • USO Remains Range Bound within Bigger Downtrend

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Insurance, Aero-Defense, O&G Equip-Serv and Water Lead (KIE, PPA, XES, PHO)
  • QQQ and XLK with Short-term Support Breaks and Pullbacks
  • Russell 2000 Pulls Back after Big January (IWM, IWO)
  • Cybersecurity Holds up within Tech (CIBR)
  • Semis and Software Pullback after Big Gains in January (SOXX, IGV)
  • Housing, Retail and Banks with Sharp Pullbacks (ITB, XRT, KRE)
  • Clean Energy ETF Retraces 50-67% of January Surge (PBW, TAN)
  • Airline ETF Retraces 50% of January Surge (JETS)
  • Agribusiness ETF form Falling Wedge in February (MOO)
  • Energy SPDR Becomes Oversold Near Support (XLE)
  • Biotech SPDR outperforms Biotech ETF (XBI, IBB)
  • Low Volatility and Defensive ETFs Extend Declines (SPLV, XLP, XLV)
  • Copper and Base Metals Extend Pullbacks (CPER, DBB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium) Read More »

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Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium)

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The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early

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ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs

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The report explains the All Weather ETF strategy using the Trend Composite to find uptrends and StochClose to rank performance. Using the Composite Breadth Model to time the stock market, this strategy focuses on stock-based ETFs during bull markets and non-stock ETFs during bear markets. These stock alternatives extend to commodity ETFs, currency ETFs and bond ETFs. This report includes plenty of chart examples and performance metrics.

ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium)

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Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)

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This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium)

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The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium)

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Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over

Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

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