Rotation Investor ETF – Strategy Details, Indicators, Universe, Signals, Tables

RO-Investor-ETF is momentum rotation strategy that trades an all-weather ETF universe in bull markets and bear markets. This strategy starts with a breadth model for stock market timing. The strategy favors equity ETFs in bull markets, and bond ETFs in bear markets. With commodity and crypto ETFs in the universe, there is almost always a bull market somewhere. This report covers the trend indicator, the volatility condition, the ETF universe, the ranking indicator and the rotation rules. We also explain the signal/portfolio page and the ranking table.

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2024 Report Card, RO-Trader Shines, RO-Investor Starts Rough, ETF Strategy Maintains Edge

2024 was a good year, even though it finished with a drawdown in December. The rotation trader strategies put in solid performances, especially RO-Trader-SPX. The rotation investor strategies started off well in November, but took a hit in December as the market fell. Momentum rotation strategies follow the ebb

2024 Report Card, RO-Trader Shines, RO-Investor Starts Rough, ETF Strategy Maintains Edge Read More »

Beginning in the Midst of a Bull Run and Dealing with Drawdowns

Not all pullbacks result in long-term trend changes and not all drawdowns lead to bear markets. The odds favor the bulls as long as the bull market signal is valid and drawdowns provide opportunities during bull markets. Today’s report will analyze the drawdowns in the Rotation Investor strategies. We will show the Maximum Drawdown, Median Drawdown and a drawdown range for putting money to work.

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Revisiting Overbought Filters for Rotation Strategies – Can we Improve Performance with a Tweak?

Momentum-Rotation strategies get their edge from upward momentum. More often than not, this means there will be entry signals for stocks that seem overbought. Not all overbought stocks continue higher and some correct hard after becoming overbought. Can we improve performance by avoiding stocks that are extremely overbought? Today’s report will discuss the recency bias, show some overbought examples and puts an overbought filter to the test.

Revisiting Overbought Filters for Rotation Strategies – Can we Improve Performance with a Tweak? Read More »

Understanding Equity Curve Performance and Setting Realistic Expectation (Premium)

It is important to understand the ebb and flow of the equity curve when trading a strategy. How long is the strategy flat or down? How often do we see strong momentum runs? How often does the strategy experience double-digit drawdowns? How can we take advantage of drawdown? We will answer these questions and more.

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Do Overbought Filters Improve Performance for Momentum Rotation Strategies? (Premium)

Buying stocks that seem overbought is difficult, but this is often required when trading a momentum-rotation strategy. By design, these strategies buy the strongest stocks and many seem “overbought”. Momentum is all about buying high and selling higher. This report will test the original Rotation Investor strategies with the addition of an overbought filter. In other words, we will avoid stocks that are overbought. Does this filter help or hurt performance?

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Diversification Benefits – Recency Bias – Dealing with Drawdowns – Tweaks

The Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies started out with a bang this year and produced big gains in the first three months. Market action then turned mixed with tech-related stocks falling sharply. The Nasdaq 100 strategy moved into a deep drawdown the last five weeks (NDX update here). The S&P 500 strategy is holding up well because

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Testing the Zweig Breadth Thrust using other Indexes – Adding Beta and Diversification to the Strategy

Today’s report will put the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators for the various indexes to the test. My default breadth index is the S&P 1500 because it covers all bases and represents a broad swath of the US stock market. We can also generate ZBT signals using

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Breadth Charts and ChartList – Get an Edge with Inside Information

Breadth indicators are also referred to as market internals. As the “vital signs” for an index or sector, breadth indicators reflect aggregate performance for the individual components. As such, breadth indicators can provide leading signals by strengthening before a bottom or weakening ahead of a top. After all, the whole is only as good as the sum of the parts

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Zweig Breadth Thrust is Missing Something – Adding Nasdaq Stocks, Testing with an Exit Strategy (Parts 1&2)

Today’s report features the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which was developed by the late, and great, Marty Zweig. We will show how it works and look at some recent signals. Despite a long history, the indicator is missing something and we will propose a modern day alternative.

Zweig Breadth Thrust is Missing Something – Adding Nasdaq Stocks, Testing with an Exit Strategy (Parts 1&2) Read More »

Skip the Noise, Focus on the Signal, Effectively Use the 200-day SMA with $SPX & $NDX (Parts 1&2)

The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look for ways to filter the noise.

Skip the Noise, Focus on the Signal, Effectively Use the 200-day SMA with $SPX & $NDX (Parts 1&2) Read More »

Why Use Market Filters?, Indicator Settings Are Double-Edged Swords, the Best Performing Market Filter

Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme

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Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium)

The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium)

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on

Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium) Read More »

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