The major index ETFs are in the midst of a bounce, but this bounce is still considered a bear market bounce. The bigger trends are still down for SPY and QQQ, the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yield spreads are elevated. Despite bullish breadth thrusts in late May, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs
Today’s report will start with the Composite Breadth Model and some words on the Market Regime because this is the dominant force at work for stocks and stock-based ETFs. Some stock-based ETFs are featured in this report because they are either in uptrends on the price chart, have positive Trend Composites or held their January-March lows (did not break down).
Today’s report starts with bonds, the Dollar and gold. I am not, however, going to tie moves in one asset to movements in another. There are some relationships at work, but relations and correlations change and sometimes do not work out as expected. Instead, I will simply analyze
The major index ETFs got big bounces last week, but these are still oversold bounces within bigger downtrends and within the context of a bear market. Despite some breadth thrusts, the Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and yield spreads remain very elevated. Gold is struggling to hold its breakout as the Dollar and
There was a big oversold bounce with some of the most beaten down ETFs leading the way. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) and Home Construction ETF (ITB) were up over 10% in three days.
There are two commodity ETFs with falling wedge patterns working. One falling wedge resulted in a deep pullback and the other in a shallow pullback. Either way, I view these falling wedges as corrections within uptrends and am watching for breakouts. This article will look at the deep pullback in the
The market regime is bearish, but SPY and QQQ are still in oversold territory that could give way to a bounce. In addition, we are seeing short-term strength in some of the high-beta ETFs as Treasury yields fell over the last two weeks. Personally, I am not
Stocks remain short-term oversold and the major index ETFs are still near their May lows. This could give way to a bounce, but the bear market and long-term downtrends continue to provide stiff headwinds. There
The market regime remains bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yields spreads are showing stress in the credit markets. Note that the BBB spread exceeded its March high over the last few days. Short-term, stocks are still quite oversold after a big decline from mid April to early May. Oversold
Bearish outcomes are more likely in a bear market and this is playing out as even the defensive groups were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday. We are also seeing this play out in certain commodities, such as industrial metals. Industrial metals
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after strong selling pressure and sharp declines. We are seeing an oversold bounce right now, but this is considered a bear market bounce because the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish and yield spreads show serious stress in the credit markets.
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after a sharp five day decline that looked like a selling climax. This five day decline was already on top of a sharp decline from April 21st to 27th (-8.5%). All told, there was
Stocks remain under pressure and failed to bounce after becoming quite oversold after a three-day decline on Tuesday. This decline continued with many stocks and ETFs becoming even more
The bear market widened its grip on stocks as more participated in the decline over the last few weeks. New lows expanded dramatically the last two weeks and more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Safe-haven groups were also hit as utilities and consumer staples fell. The safe-haven groups are
The ugly just got uglier. The Composite Breadth Model turned bearish on April 11th and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day SMA that same day. At worst
Market volatility was also high and seemed to get even higher the last two weeks. Moreover, volatility and selling pressure are not just in the stock market. We saw selling pressure in almost all groups over the last five
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and we are in a bear market environment for stocks. Oil and agricultural commodities remain relatively strong, but industrial metals were hit pretty hard the last two weeks. Downside participation
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and participation to the downside expanded significantly over the last six trading days. Even the low volatility leaders were hit hard and there were few places to hide as correlations rose among stocks. Bonds managed to firm, but do not offer an alternative to stocks
The Market Regime is bearish and this means there is a headwind for stock-related ETFs. At the very least, we should be extremely selective and reduce exposure to stocks. Even though we will still have sharp oversold bounces,
It is not pretty out there. The Composite Breadth Model is bearish and yield spreads are rising. We are also seeing large-techs (QQQ) and small-caps (IWM) lead the broader market lower. Selling pressure intensified with lopsided down days on Friday and Tuesday. Basically
The broad market environment for stocks was more bearish than bullish early last week and became even more bearish after the sharp decline on Thursday-Friday. Downside participation broadened as many of the market leaders were hit hard. We are talking about the Metals & Mining SPDR, the