Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Only three of the sixty ETFs in the core list advanced this week: AGG, TLT and LQD (bonds). Everything else declined, but the biotech ETFs (IBB and XBI) declined the least of the common stock ETFs. The banking and insurance ETFs (KRE, KBE, KIE) led the way lower with the banking ETFs hitting 52-week lows.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Stocks are still looking overextended and ripe for a rest. SPY formed three outsized weekly candles, the tallest since the advance began, over the last five weeks. In addition, the weekly gain/loss was well above average for three of the last five weeks.

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Dead Cat Bounces or More?

My, that was quick. A few days ago, Friday January 31st, to be exact, the S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF were down year-to-date. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst weekly decline since late July (-2.14%) and the small-cap Russell fell 2.94%. In addition, seven of the twelve sector SPDRs were down year-to-date on January 31st

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

The stock market took a hit this week as money rotated into safe-have assets, such as bonds. Gold also moved higher and hit a 52-week high on Friday. It looks like a correction has started in the stock market as SPY confirmed its weekly harami and the short-term indicators trigger bearish.

Market Timing Models
Bears Fire a Shot as Risk Ratios Turn

The bears fired their first shot across the bow this week with sharp declines on Friday and Monday. The bulls were not in the mood to allow even a modest pullback and quickly stepped back into the market. Short-term, an oversold bounce after a 2.5% decline (Friday-Monday) is pretty normal stuff and does not change my overall thesis.

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Defensive Names Improve as Equity-Related ETFs Weaken

The defensive names further improved this week, while the number of ETFs showing real weakness expanded. ETFs related to bonds, precious metals (sans silver), utilities and REITs remain strong. We saw the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF, Aggregate Bond ETF and Gold SPDR extend further on their falling wedge breakouts. The Utilities SPDR is the leading sector here in January with a 6.24% gain.

Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Once again, we are seeing broad strength in the Technology sector. Tech is not the only strong sector as three other sectors recorded hat tricks with new highs in the SPDR, the equal-weight sector ETF and small-cap sector ETF (Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Industrials).

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