Seesaw Market, Techs Align with Treasuries, Consolidation Breakouts in FIVG, ITA and UFO (Premium)

SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record

This commentary will look at this historic advance in the S&P 500, and them some less historic charts for oil,

This article is the second of a two part series where we put gold and silver to the test. The first article showed test results for crosses of the 200-day SMA and EMA. This article tests the Trend Composite signals

This commentary will look at oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. I am sure that there are some intermarket narratives at work here, but I will try to stick with the price charts for a pure assessment. Oil is backing off of a massive resistance zone. Gold broke above the 200-day SMA as it extended its run and silver is challenging

Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling

I covered the stock market environment on Tuesday and Thursday because it seemed timely given price action. This commentary will focus on the macro picture with analysis for oil, gold, gold miners, silver and bonds. Gold looks bullish and we have a new trend signal in the Gold Miners ETF. Copper looks even more

Tech and high-growth took another beating on Monday and followed through on last week’s breakdowns. Even though other areas are still holding up, many non-tech stocks and ETFs closed lower after being up during the day. The chart below shows the Home Construction ETF (ITB), Regional Bank ETF (KRE),

The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).

A benchmark high/low is a price peak/trough that we can use to compare performance. ETFs that break above benchmark highs, such as the mid March highs, show relative strength. ETFs that fail to exceed these highs show relative weakness. ETFs that break below benchmark lows, such as the late April lows, show relative weakness. ETFs that hold these lows show relative strength.

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and

It has been a wild ride for the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) and Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) over the last two weeks as they went from emerging leaders to overreaction laggards and back to leading. The lagging part occurred last Tuesday when stocks fell sharply during the day. This whipsaw action is looking more like short-term noise because these two are leading again with strong recoveries.

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but some yellow flags are starting to appear. Yellow flags argue for some caution and are not outright bearish. For example, defensive sectors are leading, but the offensive sectors are still holding up, even though they are lagging. Small-caps are

The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish and this means we are still in a bull market environment. Nevertheless, the odds for a correction are building and we are now seeing a dramatic move away from small-caps, which is reflected in some key breadth metrics. I will show a new twist on