All Reports and Signal Pages
(most recent at top)
Ordinary Dividends: To Adjust or Not to Adjust
Dividends may seem like harmless add-ons when it comes to price data, but they can have big effects over time. The biggest problem is that dividend adjustments create artificial prices that do not reflect reality at the time of the actual trade. There are also short-term problems as moving average values, price highs and price lows also shift after an adjustment.
ETF Liquidity Considerations – Volume, Dollar-Volume, Liquidity of Holdings, Bid-Ask Spread and Liquidity Grades
There are two things to consider for ETF liquidity. First, there is the actual trading volume for the ETF. Second, there is the trading volume for the holdings in the ETF. Hat-tip to Joe H. for enlightening me on this aspect. An ETF with relatively low trading volume can
A Dozen Books that Influenced my Analysis Process, Understanding of Markets and Trading Mindset (Free)
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.
The Master ETF List (250+) and the curated All Weather List (50)
Introducing two chart lists: a Master ETF list with over 200 ETFs and a focused All Weather list with 50 ETFs. Chartists looking for a wide array of industry group, commodity and international ETFs can turn to the Master list. Chartists looking for focus
Changing the Offering: Moving from ETFs to Stocks
ETFs lost their low drawdown edge in 2022 as the strategies drawdowns exceeded expectations. Traders use relative performance to find stocks that are outperforming the broader market. Relative performance is also important for evaluating trading strategies. A strategy with a relatively high drawdown should deliver
ChartTrader – Long-term Breadth Mixed, SPY and QQQ Overbought – Symbols Covered: RSP, IWM, SMH, AMD, AAPL, MSFT, REGN (Premium)
Stocks surged the last three weeks and participation broadened, to some degree. Analysts are pointing out the Zweig Breadth Thrust and the massively lopsided Advance-Decline Ratio this week. While there is no denying the powerful upside move since late October, keep in mind that only half of the stocks in the S&P 1500
ChartTrader – Large-cap Techs Lead, Small and Mid Caps Struggle, Symbols Covered: XLK, XLC, HACK, IGV, PPA, URA, NOC, FIVE (Premium)
The weight of the evidence for stocks is mixed. Large-caps and large-cap techs are holding up well, but small-caps and mid-caps remain under pressure. Large-caps account for the majority of the stock market when measuring by market cap.
SystemTrader – Zweig Breadth Thrust is Missing Something – Adding Nasdaq Stocks, Testing with an Exit Strategy (Parts 1&2 – Premium)
Today’s report features the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which was developed by the late, and great, Marty Zweig. We will show how it works and look at some recent signals. Despite a long history, the indicator is missing something and we will propose a modern day alternative.
A Zweig Breadth Thrust Triggers, but the Indicator is Missing Something (Part 1 – Free)
Today’s report features the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which was developed by the late, and great, Marty Zweig. We will show how it works and look at some recent signals. Despite a long history, the indicator is missing something and we will propose a modern day alternative.
ChartTrader – SPY and IWM Diverge, QQQ Leads, IGV Breaks out, Plus VMC, CME, MU, PCAR (Premium)
Stocks surged from October 30 to November 3rd (last week) and then diverged the last three days. SPY and QQQ edged higher, while mid-caps (MDY) and small-caps (IWM) fell. Over the last three days, SPY is up .59% and QQQ is up 1.42%. In contrast, MDY is down 1.71% and IWM is down 2.65%. This is the story of 2023
ChartTrader – SPY Makes Challenge, Breadth Underwhelms, 14 Leading NDX Stocks, An Infrastructure Stock Breaks Out (Premium)
Stocks surged last week, but we have yet to see breakouts in SPY and QQQ. These two surged within their falling channel patterns. Last week’s bounces were expected because stocks were oversold, the turn of the month shows a bullish bias and November is seasonally strong. These arguments were laid out last
Skip the Noise and Focus on the Signal by Effectively Using the 200-day SMA (Part 1 – Free)
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look
SystemTrader – Skip the Noise, Focus on the Signal, Effectively Use the 200-day SMA with $SPX & $NDX (Parts 1&2 – Premium)
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look for ways to filter the noise.
ChartTrader – QQQ and Tech ETFs Lead Oversold Bounce – Symbols: URA, FCG, EQT, ZS, LHX (Premium)
SPY and QQQ are getting oversold bounces within larger downtrends. Short-term, a number of factors came together for this bounce. First, the turn-of-the-month shows a bullish bias, especially the October-November turn. Second, monthly seasonal
ChartTrader – Seasonal Patterns and Oversold Conditions – Symbols: XLK, SOXX, HACK, PPA, TXT, USO, XES, SLB (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Over 75% of S&P 1500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs and 52-week lows are outpacing 52-week highs by a wide margin. SPY (large-caps), MDY (mid-caps) and IWM (small-caps) are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. QQQ is still above its 200-day SMA, but