Recent Commentary and Analysis
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The Damage is Done with the Expansion of New Lows (Free)
The broad market environment is the single most important factor to consider when investing in stocks or stock-related ETFs. Are we in a bull market or a bear market? The recent expansion of new lows and the 5/200 cross in the S&P 500 suggest that we are in a bear market environment.
Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)
The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Weakness Expands, Shocks to the System, Defense and Cybersecurity Pull Back (Premium)
The markets are dealing with some serious systematic shocks and volatility remains well above average across the board. First and foremost, the Composite Breadth Model is
Silver Plays Catchup with the other Commodities (Free)
The pickings are rather slim with just 61 of the 276 ETFs in the TrendInvestorPro Master List in uptrends. Unsurprisingly, most of the ETFs in uptrends are related to commodities (energy, metals, agriculture). Outside of commodities, we are seeing
Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered.
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Price Action and Indicators, Hard Assets Lead, Two Tech ETFs Holding Up (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model is bearish so I am focused on ETFs that are not correlated to stocks (commodities), ETFs that are defensive (staples, utilities) and ETFs that are perhaps less correlated to stocks (agribusiness, steel, defense). Volatility is
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and the S&P 500 SPDR is in a downtrend since the January breakdown. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) held up a little better than SPY in January-February, but remains short of a resistance breakout that would negate the January breakdown. In short, the trends
Charting a Future Possibility versus the Current Reality (Free)
The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with two sets of annotations: a future possibility and the current reality. The future possibility shows that a bullish reversal could be
Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)
Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)
The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but
Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs
Today’s article is the fourth installment in the Trend Composite series. We started with an introduction to the Trend Composite, tested uptrend/downtrend signals and then moved to portfolio level testing using StochClose as the tiebreak. Today we focus more on StochClose rank by using
A Winner is Emerging in the Battle for the Trend s (Free)
Buyers and sellers are slugging it out for control of the long-term trend for the S&P 500. This battle is raging near the 200-day SMA, which is perhaps the most widely followed long-term moving average. The S&P 500 is also the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks.
Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish this week as the S&P 500 led the broad market lower. New lows expanded and some 60% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs. Throw in widening yield spreads and the Market Regime is clearly
Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart