Recent Commentary and Analysis
Market and ETF Report – A Mixed Market Overall, Risk-On Groups Outperforming, 2022 Leaders a Correcting (Premium)
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
SPY Has a Clear Level to Beat (Free)
The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and
Relative Seasonality and A Monthly Equity Curve (Free)
The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers.
Strategy – Mean Reversion Part 3 – ETFs, Live Setups, Signal Triggers, Minimum Dollar-Volume (Premium)
Today’s update covers the recent mean-reversion setups. Stocks advanced in the first half of January and setups do not materialize with strength. The sharp pullback over the last two days pushed some ETFs into oversold territory for mean-reversion
Strategy – Mean Reversion Part 2 – Live Setups, Realistic Expectations, Universe, Timeframe, Strategy Diversification (Premium)
This is part 2 of the mean-reversion strategy for trading ETFs. We covered the indicators, setups and signals in part 1. Part 2 will show some trade examples, backtest results and performance charts. Backtest results help us set expectations going forward and prepare for adverse reactions, which will happen.
Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)
This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples
Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move
Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium)
The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment
Trade Like Trevor (Free)
Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half, but kept on throwing
Seasonal Trends for the S&P 500 – Best and Worst Months, Monthly Equity Curves, Performance Table (Premium)
Today’s report will dive into monthly seasonal patterns using benchmark metrics and equity curves. The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias.
Strategy – Mean Reversion Part 1 – ETFs, Indicators, Settings, Setups and Signals (Premium)
This report will introduce the criteria, indicators and signals for a mean-reversion strategy that trades ETFs. The strategy buys after excessive declines and sells after the first bounce. Buy the dip and sell the rip. This is a very picky
Market/ETF Video – CBM Negative, %Above 200-day Split, Spreads Narrow, Metals Lead (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the breadth indicators show a split among stocks with roughly half above their 200-day SMAs and half below. The Fed balance
Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium)
Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over
Market and ETF Report – Santa Claus Indicator, Turn of the Month, Weakest Months are Here (Premium)
Today’s report will cover some seasonal patterns at work in the stock market. The Santa Claus Rally just ended on Wednesday and the eight day turn-of-the-month ends on Friday. Historically, these are short-term bullish periods. The fourth
Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence Bearish, Large-caps Lagging, Precious Metals Leading (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on December 19th and remains negative as we start the new year. There are some pockets of strength within the S&P 500, but these are overshadowed by relative weakness in large-caps.