Recent Commentary and Analysis
The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 11) – Performance Update, A Tough 2022, New Positions in December
Today’s report will update the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy that trades the All Weather ETFs. 2022 has been a rough year and there are still two weeks left. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on November 30th and this means stock-based ETFs became eligible for the strategy.
Market and ETF Report – Intermarket Relations Support Stocks, Key Groups to Watch, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The weight of the short-term evidence remains bullish for stocks. Even though SPX %Above 20-day SMA plunged below 60% to trigger bearish, SPY has yet to break support and the key intermarket relationships
Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward
Market and ETF Report – XLI Overbought, KRE Breaks Down, Watching Semis, Energy gets Oversold (Premium)
2022 is the year of big swings with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) capturing this phenomenon. Both ETFs surged some 20% in 34 days
Broad Market Assessment – Breadth, SPY, IWM, QQQ, Bonds, Yields, Dollar and Gold (Premium)
This is a broad market update because we have the Composite Breadth Model saying one thing and the price charts saying something else. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive a week ago
S&P 500 Crosses above 200-day SMA: Not So Fast there Cowboy (Free)
The S&P 500 crossed its 200-day SMA for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this “signal” is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however
Market and ETF Report – Broad Advance Lifts CBM, Tech and Housing Break Out of Pennant, Metals Surge (Premium)
Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Some 95% of S&P 500 stocks were up, 96% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced and 93% of S&P 1500 stocks gained ground. Tech and high-beta ETFs, which were still the most beaten down, led the way with the biggest gains
Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months.
Market and ETF Report – SPY Challenges 200-day, 3 Key Groups to Watch, Healthcare and Water Leading (Premium)
The battles for the 200-day remain in focus for several ETFs. The S&P 500 and some key industry group ETFs surged towards their falling 200-day SMAs. Follow through would trigger a breakout and potential long-term trend reversal, while failure to follow through and short-term reversals
Trend-Followers Get the Whip, while Swing Traders Catch the Ride (Free)
2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss.
Before looking at some trend-following stats,
Market and ETF Report – Falling 200-day SMAs in Play, Dollar Becomes Very Oversold, Perspective on Gold and Silver (Premium)
The perfect storm hit the stock market over the past month and gave way to a sizable counter-trend bounce from mid October to mid November. The positive forces included oversold conditions in late September and early October, positive seasonal patterns
Market/ETF Video – 200-day SMAs Coming into Play, Big Sectors are Split, Oil Holds Support, Copper Challenges 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish with the Composite Breadth Model at -5, yields spreads at elevated levels and the Fed balance sheet contracting. Even though SPY surged the last five weeks, the big picture items remain the same and I have yet to see enough strength to change these
Market and ETF Report – Macro Moves Dominate, SPY Stays Overbought, Biotechs and Water Lead, Oil Lags (Premium)
There were some big moves over the last three days as the markets reacted to lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Stocks have been moving higher since mid October with many ETFs sporting double digit gains the last five weeks. Many of these big moves
How to Find the True Market Leaders (Free)
Stocks surged this week with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day SMA. The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low
Market and ETF Report – Large-cap Techs Lead New Low List, ITB Forms Bearish Wedges, Metals Make some Big Moves (Premium)
The broad market environment remains bearish for stocks and not exactly bullish for stock alternatives. Most commodity, bond, currency and country ETFs are in downtrends. There are some isolated uptrends within these groups, but the vast majority of ETFs in the