Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium)

A charting strategy is essential because it increases objectivity and improves the odds of success. A basic chart strategy is similar to basic black jack strategy. In his classic book, Beat the Dealer, Edward Thorp, lays out a basic black jack strategy with a set of rules to improve the odds. Once players master basic strategy, they can move on to card counting and such to further improve performance.

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The Indicators, Settings and Inputs for the Composite Breadth Model – Plus Quantifying and Comparing Performance (Premium)

The broad market timing model took another evolutionary step. The goal is to develop a logical and robust model that captured major moves in the stock market, and will continue to capture these moves. We are not talking pullbacks, corrections or dead cat bounces. Instead, we are talking bull and bear markets that affect the vast majority of stocks. The BIG trend or the market regime, as it also called.

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Trend Composite Strategy (Part 2) – All Signals Testing for Five Trend-following Indicators and the Trend Composite – 97 ETFs from 2007

Today we put the individual trend-following indicators in the Trend Composite to the test and compare performance against the Trend Composite itself. These are “All Signals” tests that give us an idea of trade frequency (number of trades), Win Rate, Average Gain and Average Loss. We will also look at three other performance

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Using the ETF Trend Signals and Ranking Table

The ETF Ranking, Signals and Setups Table makes it easy to separate the leaders from the laggards, track trend signals and find mean-reversion candidates. This article will explain the key features of this customizable table and show how to get the most out of it. We will finish with a chart example showing the origins for signals and numbers on the table.

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility Remains, QQQ Bounces after Break, Energy and Defensive ETFs Lead, Metals and Ag Hold Up (Premium)

Small-caps were the talk of the town in mid November as they broke out of a seven month range and the skies opened up. Volatility then reared its ugly head in late November when the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell some 12 percent from a new high. IWM continued lower in January and hit a 52-week low. The Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) led the way as money fled high-beta stocks and ETFs.

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Turns Bearish as Market becomes Oversold, Commodity ETFs Hold Up, Downtrend Signals Expand (Premium)

There were lots of downtrend signals this past week and over the past month. Selling pressure expanded and broadening participation on the downside was enough to push the Composite Breadth Model back into bear market mode. Note that I will update the Market Regime page on Friday morning. For now, the pickings are slim among the equity-related ETFs

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